Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[adamb1978] 08/9/2017 09:39

Regarding the comments about PE multiples, for a company such as this a PE is currently utterly irrelevant.

When a company is growing at the rate of FDEV, then changing the top-line growth assumption a bit can increase or decrease the PE by 10x - 20x. Also with the launch of Jurassic next summer, and then moving to a 1 release per year, launching games on all platforms, in-game revenue etc then the true top-line potential for FDEV wont start to become clear until their FY19 year. However even some very undemanding assumptions would put that year's turnover way in excess of current

[runthejoules] 08/9/2017 09:36

I also hope they have Alan Partridge in the game as a commentator voice.

[phowdo] 08/9/2017 09:22

All about JW:E now. If they release a well received game that appeals to console players then they are quids in. Across formats I think 5-10M units is very possible. Hit games do those numbers. Any delays will kill them. They have taken on some vastly experienced staff from the old Guerrilla/SCEE offices in Cambridge so I dont see that as much of a risk as it may have been some years ago. They've cleared matured in the last 5 years.
Margins for JW:E will be lower as they will need to engage a distributor for console boxed copies and there will be the royalty to IP holders.

[aledger1] 08/9/2017 08:54

I said if this broke 1200 resistance we could see a strong rally

[makw61] 08/9/2017 08:46

My base case for JWE is 5m units first year. When i look at EA and TTWO numbers they both sell at least four times as many units on console as on pc. Given that PC has sold 1m units in less than a year on pc only (and it needs a powerful rig at that) then i see no reason why those sorts of ratios wouldn't apply to JWE.

Re-reading yesterday's results the only real surprise on the numbers was the EBIT margin of 21% which was higher than i expected. I think i may have underestimated the power of the COBRA engine. My base case for FY19 is 30% EBIT margin, which i have just copied off one of the analyst's reports tbh, but i suspect there may be some upside there as the operational gearing kicks in.

I'm not a big fan of PE's, but the important thing to remember is that the market will have already discounted FY17 and FY18, so FY19 is what matters. IMO the PE for that year is still not particularly demanding.

GLA

[bamboo2] 08/9/2017 08:08

Chart pattern currently suggests minimum 1336.
Potential for 1588 with anti gravity device turned to 11.

[allstar4eva] 08/9/2017 07:55

£27 quid approx?

[allstar4eva] 08/9/2017 07:48

Exactly. And the pe is still low in comparison with the likes of boo and fevr although I know I am ot comparing apples with apples so to speak.

[staverly] 08/9/2017 07:44

The launch of the game coincides with the release of the film, to sell before would, IMHO, be nuts. If JWE ships 2m in year 1, which seems reasonable given the 21m+ trailer hits in the past 2 weeks, then the business has to be worth ten figures. That's comfortably double today's value.

[allstar4eva] 08/9/2017 07:36

But forecasting 1.5m sales still?

[rivaldo] 08/9/2017 07:33

I see the Finncap note states the JW trailer has already had over 21m views :o))

[eelanguilla] 07/9/2017 20:30

Elite was on kickstarter fyi ... making it roll with other titles being a success is another story :)

[p1nkfish] 07/9/2017 20:16

Catalyst of self-publishing is easy to grasp but the relatively quick turn of future releases, due to the modularisation and cross platform capabilities of their games engine, is a secret sauce.

Combine both with good franchises and this is heading to £1Bn market cap.

[panic investor] 07/9/2017 18:44

Another one reporting soon too KWS - does work for us guys here :-)

[eelanguilla] 07/9/2017 18:37

'Mirabeau
21 Aug '17 - 09:04 - 599 of 795
Only last week I was quoted 6.55p to buy 2950 and cancelled. Gutted but GLA..I can see £10 in a few months'

-

6.55-12.35*2950= £17k

someone, anyone pass me a Luger

:(((


......

feel your pain (did make me chuckle though I must admit) - only have a small interest from ages ago but the EPS % increase made me do a double take when I read it.

Nice update but wont always keep going up like this.

[mirabeau] 07/9/2017 18:26

'Mirabeau
21 Aug '17 - 09:04 - 599 of 795
Only last week I was quoted 6.55p to buy 2950 and cancelled. Gutted but GLA..I can see £10 in a few months'

-

6.55-12.35*2950= £17k

someone, anyone pass me a Luger

:(((

[m4ybe] 07/9/2017 18:25

They can double the game releases without doubling the staff and other costs by sharing their game engine etc across multiple projects. For example once a realistic face animation is produced it can be used with a slight variation in all games for very little extra work.

[cfro] 07/9/2017 16:23

Strong finish..

[nimbo1] 07/9/2017 16:23

nice finish on the cards by the look of things

[panic investor] 07/9/2017 16:11

Don't always stick to p/e - it will hold back your profits - look at FEVRIt's all about quality

[elrico] 07/9/2017 16:10

I stumbled across the gaming forum and I must confess to being very surprised at the level of traffic there is.

BOD did say in September 2016 they were quietly confident the strategy would pay off. Now can they deliver a new game every 12 months instead of 24 months? This will incur more costs, but the cash is coming it.

[aledger1] 07/9/2017 16:06

P/e is through the roof on this stock. It's not cheap even with the upgraded eps but growth potential and quality is driving the sp

[bruceylegs] 07/9/2017 15:14

Stocko is updated overnight so you'll see the revised valuation tomorrow.

[runthejoules] 07/9/2017 14:32

Has anyone worked out what the P/E is now? I don't think Stockopedia has updated it... or I hope not

bamboo2 do you have a new target? The last one didn't quite hit in the movement predicted I think (yet)

[nimbo1] 07/9/2017 13:46

anyone know if the presentation given this morning will be put online for us at any point? If not the video maybe the paper version?