Fresnillo Share Discussion Threads

[k mon] 31/3/2016 11:53

The Dixie looks interesting [if conflicting]

- Seems to be at first building a rounded top over the past few years
- or could be attempting to build a 'Higher Floor' at or around 94.

- The interesting part though - is that there is a VERY Long Drop between where it is & a trip back down to the '70's - where it was back around 2012.

Everything seems to be in a state of Flux.

Markets , Politics, Currencies - everything - just hanging on by a thread.

[hectorp] 30/3/2016 10:10

The high volatility may be a result of " biflation" as markets have fewer than normal cues as to the next direction of any given item ( share, bond or kilo of silver).
A lot of the last rounds of QE money have become tied up in all kinds of packages, eg share buybacks, mortgages and so on.
As you ssay Topicel, there will be many ups and downs this year, but at some point, either inflation will really come out into the open, or it wont.
I sense the key or answer will be found in the currency " war" and/or Bond values. Of course there is always the possibility of some sort of Lehmans based on someone getting very overstretched on some derivative.

[topicel] 30/3/2016 08:47

It was clear there was a rebound based on the dollar dove Yellen's comments as I suggested, but she went even further to slap down the couple of Hawks last week who said April was still 'live' for interest rate decisions within the FOMC.

The Bloomberg is now indicating the consensus of analysts have no rate hike possibly until November, hence the sudden depreciation in the dollar and boost to commodities and PMs and their related assets.

However, gold specific is also backed yesterday by the strong call from Blackrock to hold the metal as a hedge against inflation which Yellen basically said wasn't going anywhere near their 2% target for a long time. Same in Britain and Europe of course...

So volatility is king still and buying and holding the safe haven gold in these times is the slow and sensible move as it has been all year IMHO. The drop last week was manufactured to allow folk in who were taken unawares by Yellen last dovish statement when she didn't raise in March.

If you look at the close here yesterday Fres went up and I reckon people like Blackrock and others 'knew' she was going to be dovish again. They're all probably on board now for a slow steady rise in PMs as the aim to weaken the dollar and allow the emerging markets and oil in particular to grow and boost US wages and thus inflation is put into train.

She has been very clear twice now. Do not fight the Fed and be short here is my advice...sneezes and colds and all that!

Topicel

[goldenshare888] 30/3/2016 08:26

It looks like we are heading for 1000p PLUS again.........

GOLD & SILVER heading MUCH HIGHER!

[edjge2] 29/3/2016 21:33

If that's a double top 700 beckons. Gold yellin a rise to close so hope not.

[topicel] 29/3/2016 16:50

Just the dollar revival abc, nothing more.

Volatility still rampant and expect many reversals and u-turns throughout 2016.

If the dollar weakens again then commodities will rally. The correlation is set and the Yanks want the dollar weaker to boost exports and overseas earnings. The negative interest rate course elsewhere is set also for a long time ahead and consequently as Blackrock suggested earlier today buying gold as a hedge against this and inflation is required.

Topicel

[abc125] 29/3/2016 16:12

Gold and miners still weak. This correction is lasting a while, if that is what it is (and not a resumption of the bear market).

It looks like we could be heading into the mid to lower 800's.

[topicel] 29/3/2016 09:26

The dollar continues to maintain its recent strength based on what are optimistic and intentional calls that the April fed meeting is what the pundits like to describe as 'live'. In other words, that an increase in rates is not off the table for next month...

The last thing Yellen wants is a tougher time selling US goods abroad with an even stronger dollar so as she is due to speak this week again I anticipate she will reiterate her stance given in testimony a fortnight ago which drove the dollar back down as she intended.

There seems to be a power struggle going on inside the Fed between her dovish stance and the loose canons firing away of a couple of more hawkish members of the committee. Place your bets on who will win but most commentators maintain the position that April is about as 'alive' as the dodo...

Consequently, once the options and quarter ending dressing is over on Thursday I wouldn't be surprised for dollar to fall back and PMs to benefit a little again. More specifically, I reckon support is around £8.90 for FRES and wonder what ever happened to those calls for £11 around the corner?!

Topicel

[jamesiebabie] 27/3/2016 09:30

SG - I have been holding AMEX:TMF for a few months and watching yields go down and up and now down again; a lower yield equals a higher price; I'm happy with that.

I'm expecting the PM's to be under pressure this week with option expiries and other settlements taking place.

[hectorp] 25/3/2016 12:52

If the US Dollar is the key to all the volatility, markets etc, then there is only one winner, the USD, it is the least likely to fall of any currency I can think of, as the US is still the least badly, affected economy.
We may have to look to currency war, neg rates elsewhere, china weakness etc, to see what could weaken the US economy further and thus prevent the 2 rate rises the US seem likely to impose.
However... is it in the FED's interest to further strengthen the USD. I think it isn't so. Yes, gold will slide if the USD revalues, but there will also be a huge imbalance in currencies, so its not very plausible.

H

[gymratt] 25/3/2016 12:43

HOC has a good chart..

[utrecht_00] 24/3/2016 20:49

guys- aside of fres- what other silver plays should i be looking at? thanks in advance.

ps i recognise a few of you from the good old kryso resources days.

[jamesiebabie] 24/3/2016 16:31

Top - Sorry for the late reply, been out power washing all day.

AMEX:DUST is a x3 leverage short position on gold miners. I'm using it to hedge my gains over the last few months. I use it on a temporary basis until I see a confirmed trend.

[topicel] 24/3/2016 16:09

Lol Hectorp, there are definitely more questions than answers, eh mate?!

My take remains volatility is endemic in the system for the foreseeable and these swings are sent to try us. The dollar seems to be key, and if it gains in strength obviously gold related investments are sold off somewhat, if only temporarily.

The gains in metals generally are indeed not just for the fun of it though and all rises take a breather and even £11 could be back on the horizon quicker than we know. Iffy US consumer and retail data today, for instance can cause doubt just like that.

Chartists might like to comment on this double-bottom appearing today. A fresh wave up after consolidation for the Easter break? Who knows indeed, but I still like holding gold in these times, even via a FTSE 100 share...

A good Good Friday to you and everyone and a Peaceful Paques!

Topicel

[hectorp] 24/3/2016 12:50

I was wrong about the 1100 this week, perhaps a few more days or weeks ahead.

PS IS silver in its new bull market or is it not, I don't have my answer for this, because if not, why the huge rise in stocks in recent weeks.
H

[topicel] 24/3/2016 11:07

What's all this DUSTing you're doing Jamsie?

And abc, the short at RRS looks good down to £60, but perhaps a tad too risky as the dollar ramp by Fed members is just manipulation IMHO and designed to extricate those caught on the hop by dear Janet last week.

I mean, nothing has changed much either way, has it? A two-fold rate hike is still on the cards in 2016 and no-one seriously thinks April is a goer, and June is too early yet for the games to be affected by reality.

Easter break will see us back around £9 here I guess. Whither that eleven squid old Hectcorp was musing about? I told him ten was 'toppy'. Might take another jolt to even get back there...

Topicel

[goldenshare888] 24/3/2016 09:38

Probably not me thinks!

It is what some hope for though!

[abc125] 24/3/2016 08:43

This morning we have conventional stocks down and the metals down - is this the start of a positive correlation between the two as I alluded to earlier? Could be.

[jamesiebabie] 24/3/2016 07:27

abc - I don't disagree; I'm DUSTing and did well yesterday.

[abc125] 23/3/2016 19:40

Looks like gold will retest the recent $1190 lows. That should hold it. However the stocks could get clobbered.

Ps. Disclosure. Went short Rrs at the close.

[hectorp] 23/3/2016 10:17

very good davebowler, this week looks like consolidation , and for silver in the $15 /16 range.
Make no mistake there are many greedy hands wanting into this silver rally, as soon as we see a few quiet days..

[davebowler] 23/3/2016 03:40

Fresnillo (FRES): Gap towards Resistance Targets 1,200pWhile it may be said that shares of Randgold Resources (RRS), covered next, have grabbed all the attention for being one of the FTSE 100 shining lights for 2016, it can be seen how silver/gold miner Fresnillo is not too far behind in the bullish stakes. This is because we have been treated to a rampant performance over recent months from the Mexico focused miner, and, if anything, it would appear the technicals here are continuing to improve. This is said in the aftermath of the gap to the upside last week for the stock through its 10 day and 20 day moving averages, currently at 949p. All of this goes to suggest that we are most likely in the middle of a mid move consolidation ahead of an extended fresh push to the upside, a gap which echoes the one seen at the beginning of last month which pulled the stock up from the 750p zone to 1,000p plus. What can be said now in terms of the upside is that while there is no end of day close back below the 10 day line we could be looking to a top of August trend channel target as high as 1,210p. The timeframe on such a move is seen as being the next 4-6 weeks.?

[hectorp] 22/3/2016 17:23

As to rounding up the diehards they are steps ahead of the powers that be , seeing as the guy who was arrested on Friday will be in no position to withold their names!
This is probably why the cells decided to act almost at once.. ( aside) they will have flown the nest or have been killed, there could be dozens more of course.
Yes there are things to happen before silver can get over $16 and move to $17, and $18, seasonally this isn't the time, but this year could be different.