Fresnillo Share Discussion Threads

[andysand] 22/2/2016 10:07

Yep. Breaking now. Wouldn't be surprised to see 900p today.

[andysand] 22/2/2016 09:37

I think it will break down pretty soon. Bull run is over. Ridiculously over bought. Gold is falling as you would expect now. All in all, the perfect short setup.

[abc125] 20/2/2016 20:53

Yes, sometimes you can play the discrepancy between the gold price and miners to your advantage, both short and long. My current reading is thus: the retest of the recent high at $1263 failed at $1240. Unless gold retakes $1240 early next week we could be looking at a downtrend.

[m4ybe] 20/2/2016 14:54

I think the miners are leading gold up, and not much sign of them slowing down yet.

[abc125] 20/2/2016 14:33

I'm not so sure about a rocket here. The best of the gains are probably over for the time being. I base that on my view that gold has topped out here unless we break out above $1240 next week.

[edjge2] 19/2/2016 16:04

rocket here?

[topicel] 19/2/2016 15:50

Certainly anything is possible kirk2 as all the indicators are gloomy which is always great fro gold and associated precious metals.

However, we all know how things can turn around so looking beyond next week is adventurous, never mind the whole year. As I've maintained for a while, this is a must have hedge share if you aren't exposed directly to gold and silver in the commodities or ETF arenas. It seems accumulating is still worthwhile even after this run since November too.

Talk of negative rates now in US and murmurings even of a slip back in US GDP next week are all near term AIDS for goldies, and Brexit worries will add to the need for bullion. We will see. A good weekend all.

Topicel

[kirk2] 19/2/2016 12:16

the BULL RUN IS NOW ON ITS WAY GOLD 2K AN OUNCE THIS YEAR

[npp62] 19/2/2016 12:11

In profit at last :-)

[topicel] 19/2/2016 09:26

The battle is joined as it approaches the 940p area. If news and the Bulls have their way and it breaks through - possibly Brexit talks will weigh on the sentiment here - then it should carry on up to £10 quite quickly IMHO.

If markets perceive a deal to be in Cameron's favour and more likely to result in a Yes vote to remain in the EU then gold will probably weaken. Knowing that lot we will get nothing and it'll stretch into the weekend with the civil servants....

All a flip of a coin, but we won't have heard the last of it so longer term gold will still be a haven these coming months I reckon so hold this hedge!

Topicel

[abc125] 18/2/2016 16:19

Looking at some fib retracements on gold we should not get above $1246. Any higher and I would be looking at $1275 as the top. I am getting ready for the big short - I think gold miners will be meaningfully lower by this spring.

[topicel] 18/2/2016 16:13

Lol - I'll agree with that abc!

Topicel

[abc125] 18/2/2016 12:18

Commodities need one more leg down imo before we bottom. Stocks are in a bear market but they will rally before they plump new lows. Just guess work though. Anything could happen.

[topicel] 18/2/2016 10:49

Mmm, bear market in stocks generally or a bear market in gold?

Our correction is based on the belief that US interest rates will not now rise multiple times this year, or even next! In that environment gold can only win. How high? Depends on the other macro factors but if they point to stagnation and even lowering of interest rates as begun in Japan and virtually in Europe as probably will be confirmed by super Mario in March, then way beyond $1250 an ounze IMHO.

Oil talks are famous for getting nowhere other than where Saudi wants them to go, and a freeze is no solution. Consequently, if oil resumes its downtrend then we have to expect the markets will drop again. Good for PM miners...

I see no immediate prospect of gold reversing its present strength. Hold here and await events. Plenty of room to sell up as it doesn't move that fast - unlike AAL. Lol.

Topicel

[abc125] 18/2/2016 09:21

Where Fres and Rrs go the next few days depends largely on the gold price. I think we will top out at $1250. That should give the miners one last boost before a significant correction, or, a resumption of the bear market as I predict.

[topicel] 18/2/2016 08:56

Abc125 - it may require another big down day on oil and the wider markets or, as is being hinted, some more pessimistic definition from Yellen about rate hikes this year before we attempt to breach 940p.

I hope you're right thereafter, but it seems to far ahead this side of Spring. I'd stay invested in either event as the general impression is rates will not rise by much now, which was the main reason PMs were dropping in 2015.

A hedge, as always.

Topicel

[abc125] 17/2/2016 16:41

Good call topicel. The discrepancy between Rrs and Fres may begin to close. Last January's 940 high should be a dead cert and thereafter the August 2014 1037p high should be a possibility.

[topicel] 17/2/2016 15:36

Lol NPP, careful what you wish for mate!

I will let this run because it is a hedge too for us PIs. Everyone should be exposed to PM miners within the FTSE and both Fresnillo and Randgold have rewarded that play.

Selling out now would be wise if you have been in since £6 last autumn or even the more recent dip to £6.50 because those levels of profit are hard to ignore. But anyone buying post-£8 would be better holding to see if this rally continues with the added protection if things go nasty again, like, as you say, banks, or oil or Brexit or Greece Tragedy IV - the revenge! Lol.

Who knows, but never a mistake having a gold and silver haven.

Topicel

[npp62] 17/2/2016 15:27

There you go Topicel....over £9..... Can it hold and go on? The price of Gold and Silver will dictate that. Along with the state of the wider market.... what we want is a nice little bank collapse :-))

[hazl] 17/2/2016 15:02

topicel interesting points...I do not DIRECTLY hold here but hold GPM which has FRES in its top ten holdings.
Basically if you do well....we benefit.
I also believe gold will have an interesting year and are at the start of a gold-miner recovery.
Let's hope!



IMO

[npp62] 17/2/2016 14:49

Getting closer Topicel

[topicel] 16/2/2016 09:51

Anyone sense another go at the nine pound level is pending? The oil 'talks' this morning showed us that there is concern but not yet enough to announce a cut in production.

A freeze is just carrying on as they were yesterday and days, weeks, months before. Still far too much with the added confirmation that the supply glut is too large by the Saudi Oil Minister. The jump around in markets as it was announced around 9.30 a.m. GMT shows how sensitive everything still is and, if that is a given, the breather in the gold rally and associated shares of PM miners will be temporary.

A nice 5% swing trade in a couple of days if you got it right both ends from the £8.97 intraday high on Friday to the lowest this morning. Adding was possibly even wiser...we will see once the Yanks catch up later.

Up first then down? If so, nine squid here IMHO.

Topicel

[topicel] 12/2/2016 15:38

Well it looks like we won't hit nine pounds this week after all despite a strong late rally into the close. But you never know...

What chances that after the re-opening of the Chinese markets following their New Year that they play catch up to the downside that, even though it is reactive, gives the Bears another go on Monday morning? If so, or if the Chinese Government does something really silly like devaluing their currency further, what chances of sailing through the £9 level and on to £10?

Personally, this is not one time I'd be out over the weekend in this stock. The downside is limited and any of the above can only be good for gold related stocks. And silver too, of course, with that making a move on $16 an ounze which really helps the Fresnillo bottom line as they've increased production in recent months.

And the resurgent Indian market does like a drop of silver, does it not? Good luck and good weekend to all long holders.

Topicel

[pixi] 11/2/2016 17:38

I'm still here, but have spread the risk. I think gold is overbought.

[abc125] 11/2/2016 17:08

Gold should not close above $1255.74 today if we add 20% to the 3rd of December intraday low of $1046.45. Above that and the next level to watch on a closing basis will be $1263.66.