Fresnillo Share Discussion Threads

[abc125] 12/3/2016 14:26

Nice analysis Paul as usual! Lets see what happens when conventional stocks top out. My money is on PM's and stocks going down together. Gold will bottom this year but we might have to wait until October/November.

[a.fewbob] 12/3/2016 12:57

Although I think gold is likely to have a pull back, nothing goes up in a straight line and I think gold has had one of its strongest starts to a year in 50 years or some such.

[a.fewbob] 12/3/2016 12:55

Couldn't have put it more eloquently myself!

[abc125] 12/3/2016 12:32

Gold spiked to $1285 following Draghi'S comments but settled back to $1250 on Friday to form a weekly red candle. The upside is waning imho but I think we will have one more rally high. I think PM's and conventional stocks are now positively correlated. So when stocks resume their downtrend so will the PM's.

[hectorp] 12/3/2016 11:05

Even allowing for higher gold output ( especially to silver) they " only" produced about 0.7 M ounces of gold last year, compare that with CEY's much larger gold putput at lower cost. I'm now neutral on Fres till I see more of the smart money that left last week piling in and in large volume.
H

[topicel] 10/3/2016 11:40

Thanks Dilbert.

"Fresnillo stock holders will be greatly rewarded" is a conclusion that was in-expected after the headline!

So despite yields falling and production costs increasing in recent years in silver the move towards gold as the primary revenue driver since 2014 has added value. Even with lower PM prices last year profits were $70m and more upside is obviously envisaged at the present peg.

It also implies a view that gold and silver will be gainers in the future, presumably as the cyclical bull market is seven years old and the Bears will have their turn...

Still reckon Draghi is more relevant today.

Topicel

[topicel] 10/3/2016 08:47

Some hesitancy this morning on the Markets that Draghi might not be so decisive with a further lowering of negative interest rates as he may site the recent rebound in oil as helping already in his drive to return inflation to 2%.

If that isn't the case then more funds must surely flow from deposit accounts of all types and into PMs with, as ever, gold the principal beneficiary. A dose of QE should also aid equities, so perhaps a double-whammy to the upside for Fresnillo holders at lunchtime?

If he disappoints like he did in December we will probably see gold bounce as it has since then and that $1400 mentioned could come into focus. As ever, volatility as he speaks and info is digested....lol.

Topicel

[hectorp] 09/3/2016 16:32

I noted your UGAZ mention on the Ag thread the other day, hope it does well for you. I have a thing about never trading oils and energies, and rarely have traded currencies though that Yen/Dollar trade is interesting these days. But the Yen must be getting toppy soon. Where will crude go after $38? seems toppy as well.
Over the last 3 years I've shorted silver as a hedge, with the secure knowledge of its validity.
BUT ( abc) I know what you mean, and some times I've closed it far too soon, or too late ( ie I have been whipsawed).

Naked, you cannot do that most times, and we peer at the screens and the second or minute chart, finger over the mouse button, and bang goes the evening. And that side of it is certainly addictive! .
H

[jamesiebabie] 09/3/2016 15:29

H - I must admit I'll probably use DUST in the future as a hedge; thanks anyway.

Doing some good trading at the moment and UGAZ going nicely after I entered.

Looking at the DOW again; it's fallen out of the wedge; if I see a back test, that will be my entry.

We have Draghi and Yellen, so they may just upset the apple cart.

[hectorp] 09/3/2016 15:07

abc closed out fres yesterday. Still holding same value in HOC long, so overall not down much.
jamesie I just use spread bet silver ( its May at present).

I dont like being short gold or silver miners, just silver spread bet shorts, as I own phys.

[goldenshare888] 09/3/2016 11:08

Not for very much longer I feel!

GOLD BULL returns and we may be seeing a final small pull back before major blast-off?

Would not surprise me to see $1400 plus GOLD very soon.....

[abc125] 09/3/2016 09:11

Hector are you stil holding your Fres or will you continue hedging? From my own experience hedging is difficult and it can do your head in. Instead of shorting silver you could maybe open a spread bet short in Fres? It would track your long more accurately.

I see you bought Fres near the highs. My commiserations. Nowadays i find it psychologically difficult to hold onto losing positions for long. When I close a losing trade it's like an exhilarating wave of relive washing over me!

This precious metals bear has been cruel and will continue to frustrate investors.

[jamesiebabie] 08/3/2016 16:01

H - Which ETF are you using to go short? tia

[hectorp] 08/3/2016 12:24

Trading, a wager, is mis-termed and full of dangers for the short term player,
And yes I do it too!
But most of my money is sitting long term in G and S since 2008.
So my main trade is a short on silver ( or was, when it was falling) as such a trade is a hedge for me.

[topicel] 07/3/2016 16:04

Lol, then spare a thought for my AHT experience last week. Withstood the 15% drop as I don't believe in stops and saw it climb back on the back of director buys to 850p.

But I'd been softened up and when it fell the next morning I bailed at 839p with £100 profit on £20k. A profit is a profit but I had hovered over the sell button the evening before results on 1 March with 927p offered, thinking good results would add to the buying. Good results didn't...lol...and the fix was in it seems.

To compound everything it rose to £9 again after my 839p sell within two days. Luckily all the branches nearby were out of reach, ha ha.

Yep, good luck it is! We battle on.

Topicel

[abc125] 07/3/2016 14:30

Yes good luck. I'm just a bit miffed I got shook out of a short which had an average of 1002p. My analysis was correct but got spooked when it spiked to 1020p!

[abc125] 07/3/2016 09:27

Topical, I think technicals are more important than fundamentals. Fundamentals can lead to intraday spikes but the market will continue its trend until it doesn't. Last weeks gold spike to $1280 did not result in new highs for Fres or Rrs - a warning sign in my opinion.

[topicel] 07/3/2016 09:16

Maybe abc, maybe...but we have to factor in the ECB decision on Thursday which could propel more negative interest rate 'rises' onto Europe allied to increased QE, don't we?

IMHO the move down is merely in preparation for the certainty of a continued flight to gold and other PM havens once Draghi has said his bit.

There is plenty of volatility about yet, that is for sure!

Topicel

[abc125] 07/3/2016 08:51

Gold strong this morning yet miners weak. The market is telling us that a full blown correction is in the offing. Given the scale of the advance I envisage a 15-20% correction over the next several days/weeks. That's equates to a price of 800-850p imo

[jamesiebabie] 06/3/2016 22:26

SG - I do not have a fixed target; it is governed by the waves, which by their very nature are fluid and moving. Long term, it is likely to be equal to or higher than the previous highs when we reach wave 5 of a super cycle.

[saturdaygirl] 06/3/2016 21:55

so post live then .

[saturdaygirl] 06/3/2016 21:55

so post live then .

Everyone has seen £10.20 but I have a cheeky £13.91 target