Disconnect with MXN. Cashflow was boosted due to lower MXN costs as MXN v $ fell, especially in Q4. Forecasts were overly conservative. Should be following MXN PM prices more closely. Some of this gap should close on results. I grant political worries developed in 2023 and 2024 but these seem to be largely easing.
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com |
FRES/Silver Correlation gap overextended |
you'll see what i mean in this very long term chart. it does certainly fly when it wants to. it either goes down 25%, or it is indeed a multibagger at this price. no inbetween.
no bad market reaction for once
the silver price is a big thing for fres, and ag is at a very interesting point with a lot of upside.
much bigger movement coming soon
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com |
I was listening to Don Durret's YouTube channel earlier and he was saying how cheap the stock was and it COULD be a multi bagger. Printing money he said and from today's results you can see why he raved about it. There's only one problem, it trades on the London Stock Exchange, broken like the City of London, London, the FSA. Crooked. |
Aleman - 27 Nov 2024 - 14:29:04 - 21318 of 21430 FRESNILLO precious metals - FRES
Forecasts continue to creep up since the last update. Free cashflow consensus forecast (13 analysts) from 2023-2026 is currently as follows:
$-55.9m $507.1m $709.7m $598.2m
Latest for this is:
$-55.9m $518.3M $755.5m $$690.6m.
But they've just told us 2024 will be $820-850m - 60% higher than 2024 consensus. |
Silverstream contributes around 3.5% to 5% of total silver production.
Its share has declined from 5.03% in FY23 to 3.64% in FY24.
The quarterly trend also shows a decreasing contribution from 4.32% in 4Q23 to 3.51% in 4Q24. |
They’re gonna write-down the value of Silverstream to offset the profit surge. Sensible tax move. |
Did you not see it move from 450p to 770p? That's +71%, how many FTSE 100 companies are up 70% in the last 12 months? |
Breaking £7 would be a win and I doubt it will break it. Will be interesting to see what they do with the dividend given their policy is to increase it as profit increases. A 5%+ yield might actually move the shareprice. |
 To estimate the share price of Fresnillo (FRES) based on its historical P/E ratio and the provided information, you can follow these steps:
Step 1: Calculate the company's total market value (equity value)
We are given the following:
Profit from continuing operations = $1 billion
P/E ratio = 20 (historical)
Using the formula:
Company Value
=
Profit from Continuing Operations
×
P/E Ratio
Company Value=Profit from ;Continuing Operations×P/E Ratio
Company Value
=
1
billion
×
20
=
20
billion
Company Value=1 billion×20=20 billion
So, the estimated company value is $20 billion.
Step 2: Convert the company value to GBP (since the share price is in pounds)
We need to account for the currency difference since the company value is in USD and the shares are priced in GBP. Assuming the exchange rate is 1 USD = 0.80 GBP (a reasonable assumption for this example):
Company Value in GBP
=
20
billion
×
0.80
=
16
billion GBP
Company Value in GBP=20 billion×0.80=16 billion GBP
Step 3: Estimate the share price
We are told that there are 737 million shares outstanding. To estimate the share price, we use:
Share Price
=
Company Value in GBP
Shares Outstanding
Share Price=
Shares Outstanding
Company Value in GBP
Share Price
=
16
billion GBP
737
million shares
=
21.7
GBP per share
Share Price=
737 million shares
16 billion ;GBP
=21.7 GBP per share
Conclusion:
Based on the assumptions, the estimated share price of Fresnillo (FRES) would be approximately £21.70 per share. |
FRES historic P/E is 20. There are 737m shares at £7 each, assume $1b profit from continuing operations and estimate the FRES share price?? |
Estimating the value of a company based on profit from continuing operations can be done using a variety of methods, with one common approach being the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. This method assumes you have an appropriate P/E ratio for the company based on industry standards, market trends, or historical data.
Here’s how you can calculate it:
Formula:
Company Value
=
Profit from Continuing Operations
×
P/E Ratio
Company Value=Profit from ;Continuing Operations×P/E Ratio
Example Calculation:
Profit from Continuing Operations: $1 billion
P/E Ratio: This can vary based on the industry, company growth potential, and market conditions. For example, if the average P/E ratio for the industry is 15:
Company Value
=
1
billion
×
15
=
15
billion
Company Value=1 billion×15=15 billion
So, if the P/E ratio is 15, the estimated value of company ABC would be $15 billion. |
if profit from continuing operations is $1b at company ABC estimate the value of company ABC? |
Profit from continuing operations is expected to be further benefitted by the lower administrative, corporate and exploration expenses and increase to a range of US$930-950 million in 2024, up more than 500% |
about 8 weeks to the full year financials, load up |
"The average realised gold and silver prices increased 25.3% and 21.7% vs 2023, respectively. The average realised zinc price also increased 8.7% year-on-year, while the average realised lead price decreased 2.7%. These variations, combined with the increase in the volumes of all metals sold, and lower treatment and refining charges, are expected to result in an increase in Revenues of between 25-35% vs 2023."
"As a result, Gross profit is anticipated to be within the range of US$1.2-1.3 billion, up more than 135%. Profit from continuing operations is expected to be further benefitted by the lower administrative, corporate and exploration expenses and increase to a range of US$930-950 million in 2024, up more than 500%."
"Free cash flow[4] is estimated to be within the range of US$820-US$850 million, with expected cash and cash equivalents at year end amounting to US$1.2-US$1.3 billion." |
The report from Fresnillo for Q4 2024 is overall positive, showcasing a solid year of production with several key achievements and some challenges.
Positive Aspects:
Silver Production: Attributable silver production was in line with guidance for the full year (56.3 million ounces), showing resilience despite some quarterly fluctuations.
Gold Production: Gold production exceeded guidance with a 3.4% increase over FY23, supported by higher ore grades and recovery rates at several mines.
By-Products: Lead and zinc production increased significantly year-on-year, driven by higher ore grades and increased volumes of ore processed at key sites.
Financials: Revenues and gross profit are expected to show significant growth, partly due to higher metal prices and effective cost reduction strategies.
Safety and Efficiency: Safety remains a top priority, with ongoing improvements to workforce protection and mine site efficiencies.
Challenges:
Decreased Silver Production in Q4: Silver production in Q4 2024 decreased both from Q3 2024 and Q4 2023, mainly due to the cessation of mining at San Julián DOB and lower ore grades at certain sites.
Silverstream Agreement Impact: The company reported a potential decrease in the book value of its Silverstream contract due to operational difficulties at Peñoles' Sabinas mine.
Ore Grades and Production: Some mines, especially Fresnillo, faced challenges like reduced ore grades and a decrease in the volume of ore processed, impacting silver and gold production in certain periods.
In conclusion, the company performed well overall, with production and financial results meeting or exceeding expectations in several areas, despite some hurdles in Q4. They remain focused on improving safety and operational efficiency in 2025. |
fres occasionally shoots up making everyone excited, followed by persistent despair. repeated again and again. it is a bit like a manic depressive.
one of the last updates mentioned issues with silverstream production: "experiencing operational difficulties impacting silver production"
my experience of fres has been that these early warnings are a sign of a likely upcoming poor market reaction to the formalised news in the report.
i see the share price in a descending wedge, with the possibility of a dramatic movement soon in share price
experience tells me it could go either way.
cross your fingers! |
Report out tomorrow. No confidence projected by the market yet. |
$2785 just missed it by 0.2%, after S&P PMI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment both miss forecasts. |
I was hoping FRES would break the 700p resistance today ... let's see |
Lots of small buys . If I didn’t know better I’d say someone is trying to manipulate the price 🤣 |
Gold just shy of a USD record now. |
We all want Fres in double digits... |
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