Flybe Share Discussion Threads

[sandoval] 08/6/2017 13:49

Sounds like a good buisness model to me, opportunity cost of no competition and still 600000 increase in passenger numbers even with high fares. Revenue close to £700 mill not to be sniffed at. Now , hopefully they can be in control of supply. Other macro factors out of their control. Not an investment for the impatient.

[jerseyman1] 08/6/2017 13:48

Whilst generally positive about the direction this business is taking it should be noted that the pre write off loss of £1.9m is after one off credits of £3.6m for 2016 bonus accruals no longer needed and £4.2m from a review of deferred income that has been released to P and L. From this £1.9m loss is deducted for IT and other write offs of £4.8m to give the adjusted loss before tax of £6.7m. It's a bit smoke and mirrors but not unusual for these sort of adjustments in most businesses.The translation loss on USD denominated loans of £13.2m struck after adjusted loss before tax is a function of daft FRS accounting requirements and is not a cash item. It should also be noted that there is a £24m mark to market surplus on the USD and fuel hedge books but this does not flow through the P and L and merely is reflected in balance sheet reserves.This is a major asset for the coming financial periodSo how does it feel from here? Quiet satisfaction that the worst is behind this business mainly due the end of material new aircraft deliveries, the return of six aircraft to lessors in H2, the deal with Stobart to wet lease 2 expensive E195 aircraft for 20 months, the apparent focus on more profitable routes given the reduced fleet size later this year and modest evidence that yields and actual seats sold in Q1 to date are improving. Early days but it feels as if there will be positive progress this year

[clocktower] 08/6/2017 13:32

Their problem is that they do not offer low cost fares, for example a flight from Guernsey to Southampton (a hop skip and jump away) on 12th June Return 19th June - Cabin baggage only - lowest fare £189.98. No wonder they do not get sufficient bums on seats - and can customers rely on them to get them where they want to be when they want to be there?

Out of the above Fare Taxes and Charges amount to £33.98 So they are charging £156.00 for such a short flight without a decent suitcase and this is if you go at times that not idea to most. Otherwise the fares rocket.

How long have they been turning the company around?

What is their next excuse?

Sub 30p still to much imo.

[sandoval] 08/6/2017 12:42

Maybe why they are reducing capacity? Even Ryan air have reduced capacity to 8% while Flybe had a legacy of 13.5% increase last year from before even SH. That is changing as we speak. 12.7 mill seats vs 8.8 mill passengers not a good combo even with extra 600K bums on seats. The story is better than the financials and sale is inevitable long term but not at these prices.

[toffeeman] 08/6/2017 12:15

No point is having loss-making demand.

They sold less than half the capacity Ryanair do over 90%

Looks pretty grim short-term.

Loads of cuts to tart up for a sale?

[sandoval] 08/6/2017 11:55

Dusted off the rose specs from last year and to be fair current year to date rev per seat is up 4.6%. Extra 600k passengers added means at least we have a demand and ebitda is up 10%. Owning more planes and giving back more leased planes to reduce capacity/improve cash flow . More WIP than RIP imo.

[capracomp] 08/6/2017 11:42

More seats, the smaller the revenue per seat and larger the cost.Aircraft numbers and therefore seats have peaked so revenue per seat should now start increasing.

[billiam] 08/6/2017 11:31

Revenue per seat has fallen by 3.6% to GBP48.84
Cost per seat has risen by 2.0% to GBP53.74

Hmmm

[bulltradept] 08/6/2017 11:06

That re-rating didn't last long. Perhaps Mr Market really wants to see a concrete turnaround?

[mreasygoing] 08/6/2017 09:21

Well I've been adding. Keep up the doom mongering until I've finished filling my boots.

[netcurtains] 08/6/2017 08:54

you guys ;-)

[owenski] 08/6/2017 08:43

Indeed, the above collection of peer group charts is rather telling when compared to the disaster of FLYB's share price

[boonkoh] 08/6/2017 08:36

Netcurtains : all airlines are making hay under the sun. Well, at least the decently run ones, bar Fastjet and Alitalia. So it looks like if anything, we're at the top of the cycle for aviation

[netcurtains] 08/6/2017 08:17

Is this the new thread?
New Thread new dawn?

[palwing13] 08/6/2017 08:05

Initial reaction looks positive.

[mikepompeyfan] 08/6/2017 07:58

Future looking a lot better. Costs have peaked.

[steveglobal4] 08/6/2017 07:40

Cash was at least double I was expecting,
Should mark up quite a bit

[netcurtains] 08/6/2017 07:33

Thanks Owenski.... I'm trying to ascertain at what point the recovery starts.
Be interesting if people think its today or not.

I called it wrong last time so I'm not going to second guess this time, just going to wait and see.
There nearly always is a recovery in the airline industry, its just not always obvious when it starts.

[owenski] 08/6/2017 07:23

Stripping out the debt still leaves 60m of cash on the books, the whole business is therefore valued at 11m above cash, seems an anomaly to me.

Apart from that, as a business I didn't see anything to overly compel me to buy, still undergoing some restructuring still has to prove itself under yet another new CEO, still a lot of uncertainty especially WRT european routes. Cost per passenger, yields still not where they want them to be.

Price might correct from here as it values the company as a disaster considering the cash buffer, apart from that nothing compelling to buy yet. IMO

[mreasygoing] 08/6/2017 07:14

Looking good. Loss at lower end of expectation.

[mreasygoing] 07/6/2017 17:15

A couple of after hours buys, I've a feeling that we'll see a rally tomorrow.

[steveglobal4] 07/6/2017 15:49

buys coming in now, interesting

[wanttowin] 07/6/2017 14:50

Results tomorrow

[steveglobal4] 07/6/2017 14:18

where are the results here please