Equity research in the US out yesterday stated that Q4 levels are now back to level. 5 above average weeks have now cancelled out the poor fortnight. With FD above average holds things are looking up With non US being ahead, given a string of bookie friendly football & racing results the outlook looks strong. When the boss stating that turnover levels on Sunday nights are matching Super Bowl levels the relentless expansion looks unstoppable and the double digit improvement seen in other sectors around the World can give great confidence. With ESPN, YouTube TV and Netflix getting involved can only add to the party. Ads for Thanksgiving games cost 16pc more this year, because of both last years record and expected new levels of interest |
 Hi RKeck,thanks for your post.Nothing I say should be looked upon as advice and I've got plenty of calls wrong.
When I invest,for me substantial amounts I try to look at as much research as possible,examine the track record of the company and its management and to look at ' what if I get it wrong' scenario.
At present,end 2024,we've got a group compounding rate of 12%,US CAGR of 22%,a credible ( on the basis of track record to date) og CAGR 24% from FY 23 to 26.
Revenue last quarter was $3.25 billion and if states continue to open,and you believe in the ' flutter edge' proposition,a credible path to $21 billion by FY 27.
We're not there yet.However,if ( I know,a big word) this plays out,you have a company not far from doubling really fast growing revenue ( and also,through scale) profit margins.
I'm sure there will be times over the next couple if years that the share price will gyrate ( in both directions) but I would expect the company to ' grow into' it's PE.
For me,with the companies I invest large amounts( again,that's relative),I don't want to make the mistake of selling too early.All imo,dyor,etc,. |
Not the most logical post I will ever make but does anyone else find the surging share price almost scary??? I genuinely felt it was materially undervalued earlier this year so understand the surge … but it now seems to be propelled by its own momentum (ie perhaps people buying purely to get on board while it climbs steeply). I know I/we could sell some etc but that’s not my approach and I will handle the storm (or hopefully small downpour) when it comes. As other people have said, “ I hope I’m wrong”. |
I've been burnt by being overconfident with an investment that had a promising future.
The unforseen headwinds can be a hell of a reality check. (ie. Platform glitches, downtime, taxes, government policy shifts , etc)
I don't disagree that it looks promising, but if you're saying quarterly results don't matter based on the bigger picture... I can't see a world where investors will not punish a stock for missing earnings.
I've been looking over the numbers, but no matter how much I fudge them... I haven't been able to rationalize the stock over 290'ish on this rally.
I'd be happy to be proven wrong.... |
The most important thing is that investors are now confident in the promising CAGR % of this industry. That means quarterly results don't matter as much, since the big picture is so promising.
I still think that investors have only just found this stock. It has room to rally more. |
Up $100 (58%) year to date. |
(13:15 GMT) Flutter Entertainment Price Target Announced at $320.00/Share by Goldman Sachs
That said, if I were to make an educated guess...
I'd say $281-290 is the ceiling to this nice little run we've been having.
Then, I'd expect the shareprice to retract to $250 and normalize before another run. |
I hear you (Whitehouse) for using conservative language. If it helps, I have approx 70% of my pension pot invested in Flutter ie I am deeply committed and know far more about this firm than any other. Perhaps TMI but I find it helps me to look at things through a negative lens… and hope I can’t find much. |
Double positive news for here out of Playtech am. They are repaying a 200m loan early prior to plan when they sell SNAI to Flutter. They are doing so well. Mostly in Italy. Good news for the new buy & also good news for Sisal as they must be going ok as same Italian market |
A little better than steady for NY I would suggest. 4 weeks on the bounce now at over 20m results in last 4 weeks at 95m Vs 72m helping the pain of THE bad fortnight ease somewhat FanDuel used to run free minibuses the 20 min from Times sq to Meadowlands NJ so punters could go to the races/bet with FD so some will have joined the 80pc of those who lost on knee brace Tyson 89pc of cash, inc mine, went down last night on the Steelers at -3.5 with DK so a good guide and a huge result for singles and weekend accas already down |
NY week ending 17th Nov
DK $162.7m handle $16.5m hold (10.1%)
FD $202.5m handle $22.7m hold (11.2% hold)
Steady week for FD … much better hold than usual for DK.
FYI apparently NY didn’t allow betting on the Tyson fight so any fillip from that event won’t be in these figures (indeed may have suppressed the handle a little if punters found a way to bet via another state). |
8.5m Michigan 4% hold vs DraftKings loss of -384k.
PA iGaming up 64% YoY |
More October Handle/Hold figures coming through from Pennsylvania and Michigan. FD hold rates (as we know) are well down compared to typical level but relatively very good indeed compared to DK (only really useful benchmark) who barely made anything. My only point here is that adds credibility to our CEO’s comments about FD market leading ability to accurately price risk… which maximises revenue in strong periods and minimises losses when the tide flows for the punters. |
The firm cutoff date outlined in the Amendment was that the legal sports betting market in Missouri must be a reality by Dec. 1, 2025.
However, Missouri Gaming Commission chairman Jan Zimmerman hopes it can come together faster.
“Our folks are writing the rules and regulations as we speak,” she noted last week.
"Optimistically, in order to get through all those administrative processes, we’re looking at mid-to-late summer (2025),” she added. |
Here's an update on Missouri. There was a dump of No-votes but looks like it will pass. There's some big cities still reporting with higher Yes-margin. NYTimes tracker shows the margin at 2008 votes.
"None of the eight largest voting jurisdictions, representing half the total statewide vote, have certified final results. All eight passed Amendment 2 by strong majorities."
Many smaller counties have certified their results already.
"Final state certification of the results must occur by Dec. 10. Any recount would take place after that certification." |
I don't know about those numbers but Boyd Gaming is FanDuel's primary partner.
Boyd Gaming owns 5% stake in FanDuel. You can check their online revenue growth to get a glimpse, but Boyd Gaming also runs other online operations. |
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Does anyone know how the revenue is divided with these igaming numbers? |
In better news the IGaming numbers for NJ are the highest month ever & 38pc up YoY and will remain at huge levels for the foreseeable Also last 4 weeks of NFL all above average so Nov comparisons look already certain to beat last year |
Anecdotal evidence re the early Oct NFL issue via a couple of punters who won indicates they had long shot 12 game accas for all Sunday games To quote one they had a 10 buck bet & the first 10 of 12 won. If all 12 had gone in payout was 170k but there was more time before the last 2 games which they gave them time to consider the 16k cash out option. Which they took.Game 11 would have been a loser but money in bank & too late for FDIf loser had been on any of earlier 10 simultaneous games virtually no cash out or final win |
Given the multiples we're seeing for the next 3 years, I'm not surprised.
EPS Estimates
2024 : 5.95
2025 : 8.78
2026 : 12.19 (A double in 2 years)
2027 : 15.38 (Almost a triple in 3)
New Price Target from Craig Hallum : $275 -> $350 |
Chase Coleman is one the greatest hedge fund investors. He's compounded 30% returns a year. He seems to have a talent for finding newly arising trends, like search engines, social media and such. It's no wonder he found Flutter. And that's probably because of the valuation too. He's investing in it to see the compounding returns. |
NY week ending 10th Nov
Total handle - $527m
DK $167.1m handle, $15.4m hold (9.2%)
FD $215m handle, $24.4m hold (11.3%) |
Peter Jackson,according to yesterday's Irish Times also indicating they may look at bidding for Italy's lotto ( min bid a billion euro) as a way of ' funneling'players toward their online platform. |
Fox Corporation had 7.2bn of debt and 4.1bn of cash and cash equivalents.
4.3 billion for FanDuel is a big investment for them.
They've ran Fox Bet before so they have experience of running a sportsbook and getting licensed for it. FanDuel is much easier to pitch now that it's a profitable company. |
Billionaire investor Chase Coleman's hedge fund, Tiger Global Management, filed its latest Form 13F on Thursday and disclosed its trading activity
Tiger Global opened three new positions including a $801.3 million stake in Flutter Entertainment |
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