The Earnings Report will be released After market close (Nov12). Previously, it was slated before - could have been an error in the reporting system though.
Curious to see what % of the sharebuy back they'll implement with the first transaction. |
I did note that irony. And no harm that the yankees lost 3 of these matches to LA Dodgers from a state (obvs California) that hasn’t legalised gambling. |
Remarkably the big 4 NY teams, Jets, Giants, Knicks & Yankees have had 6 matches between them in the last 4 days.And lost the lot |
I genuinely apologise. I should have remembered it was you and I was and am grateful. |
You don't recall correctly. I posted on the Illinois tax hike over that weekend and we both sold first thing Monday morning. If someone saved me a material sum, I'd try and remember, but you thanked me at the time, so I'm probably being a bit precious. |
I hear you Pughman. I accept I should written “badly” and not “very badly” in my earlier post. I suggest you/Whitehouse ignore any posts from me or anyone else that you consider nonsense and allow the rest of us to debate as we see fit. If I recall correctly, Whitehouse once alerted me to the Illinois tax news very promptly (and I was able to take action that saved a material sum) so the negative sentiment is not held the other way and I welcome your/his continued posts. |
RKeck, FD are the only state to have reported Oct numbers. Weekly hold rates of 10.3%, 7.6% and 2.8% do not fit your description of a business in Q4 doing 'incredibly badly' performing 'very badly. It's very hard to have a constructive debate when someone posts nonsense, but I've done it myself, so let's move on. |
You are definitely entitled to your opinion Whitehouse but let’s keep the discussion civil please. I have explicitly covered some of your points in my post “I know this is one state but surely a bellwether unless it relates heavy bias to NY teams results”. This thread has a good history of constructive debate and I have thanked you on here for positive contributions. |
Can you refrain from posting your little understanding of the business/sport as fact. Your Q4 assessment is ludicrously based on NY figures which coincide with a NY team having a good couple of weekends. (Baseball Yankees are through to World Series first time in 15) you do not seem to understand that this means other states teams will have lost evening things up and that all other sports are availableYesterday was another monster haul across the whole of the US NFL fir the books NOT just a single state when the other 30 have no data reported yet AND premier league and Euro and racing results all favourable Flutter covers the World not just NY and it's 3rd most popular betting sport |
Different quarter Pughman. Q3 looks strong and upcoming Earnings outcome looks positive. Q4 has started v poorly and the only real concern is when there is a disconnect between hold % and relative success of favs/underdogs that may need deeper investigation. You can infer that is “moaning”;… I see that as analysis and am looking to engage on here with people seeking to understand the numbers as fully as possible. |
The last 2 weeks in NY are a total non story. Of the 24 states reporting Sep numbers so far, the hold rate in 23 is above 10%, the exception being NY at 9.91%. Considering the industry standard is 7%, moaning when punters have a couple of good weeks is petty, and if anything a positive. |
----
Previous Q3 Estimates for (Nov 12th-Before market open)
E: -0.47
R: 3.05B (+- 6%)
Updated Q3 Estimates::
As of today, a modest improvement on the EPS
E: -0.339 (Likely due to M&A)
R: 3.05B
----
Q4 Esimates
E: 2.84
R: 4.13B |
Perfectly calm. You (whitehouse) post ongoing upbeat notes on sports results so just balancing the narrative. These 2 weeks are exceptional hence noteworthy to me at least. NB I think I have established that the disconnect between NFL results and NY data is a timing issue (results from 2 weeks ago was a landslide for favs and I had thought that was covered in last weeks data release - it seems those results have massively affected both sets of data). |
Calm down dear as Michael used to sayIt is called variance and in sport it happens. Last year a negative 200m weekend hit in September and 2 companies in England had to issue profit warnings. Flutter was able to absorb without warning as it has worldwide outlets that offset a single country 'issue'I believe there will be no tax supplements in next weeks budget, unlike some, and it will be full steam ahead to Q3 super strong numbers. |
NY data for week ending 20th Oct
DK $198.3m handle $1.5m hold (0.75%)
FD $208m handle $5.9m hold (2.8%)
I am rather stunned by this outcome .. and not in a good way. Q4 has started incredibly badly … I know this is one state but surely a bellwether unless it relates heavy bias to NY teams results. |
NY Week ending 13th Oct
DK handle $173m hold $5.3m (3%)
FD handle $184m hold $14m (7.6%)
Not as bad as I feared and comforting to see the continued hold % disparity with our biggest competitor. |
Huge numbers out of the US last nightIn NJ sports and iGaming were both strong resulting in a 45pc gain. DK were lower by 3pc thanks to flat iGaming and lower sports strangely In Michigan Sports were up from 9m to 14m iGaming 31m to 44m. Combined up from 40m to 58m. So FD in both states up 40pc + in Sept |
The error on FDs handle/hold in NY last week was woeful …and reflects very badly on journalists who should have realised it didn’t make any sense. I am rather dreading seeing the US figures for last week… I fear the hold will be around 4-5%.. poor start to Q4 but guess these things even out. |
FD NY Q3 206m revenue Vs 160m last yearRevenue for Sept was a record 95m however the main data industry supplier has picked up the 53m from August in error. And reported it everywhere. Shambles |
FT Article “UK bookmakers don’t want to (and probably won’t have to) pay more tax” is excellent. I’m terrible at sending links but hope anyone interested can Google it. It provides far more detail/insight than anything else I’ve read. |
I have bought EVOK , I think will do well, broker rating up today for EVOK |
Thanks Vraetorian. That is a really helpful note and the exact calculation I was keen to read (likely worst case scenario). |
Correct
This is assuming a 50% level for the UK’s remote gaming duty, levied on gross gambling profit.
Evoke - would take a hit of 42%
Entain - 25%
Entain, it seems, has a sizeable debt caused by an acquisition spree which could amount to 3.6billion next year according to estimates.
They may be looking to offload some assets in the near future.
It's too early to tell what Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Oct. 30 budget contains.
Expect accurate updates after it's release. |
Thanks Vraetorian. Do you know if the 18% hit you refer to is assuming Reeves went with the £3bn (highest gambling tax) proposal? |
The Silver lining...
"Flutter, which despite being UK market leader counts more of its group revenue from the U.S., could be a beneficiary if the likes of Entain or Evoke step back, or even seek to sell some or all of their assets. "
An 18% hit to Flutter’s 2025 EBITDA isn't small, but better than the hit on Evoke and Entain. |
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