Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[bouleversee] 11/7/2017 18:28

My family have held them for many years and so we are overweight. If they collapse, it won't be funny. However, as to where else one can get a decent return, I really don't know the answer. My last few years' contributions to equity ISAs are down about 25% so I would have done better to leave the dosh languishing in cash as it turns out. Wish I'd stayed in property.

[roddiemac2] 11/7/2017 18:04

PS---"It is never wrong to take a profit"

[roddiemac2] 11/7/2017 18:01

bouleversee,

No crystal ball here.

After the run up to over £17 , some profit taking is understandable, but,so far,has not been accompanied by high volume.

Interim results are due on the 31 st. of August, but the company has already stated that growth will be weighted to the second half.

I am a holder , because I do think the company looks good for the long term. The list of major shareholders totals 60% with some holding for many years.

Some investors say that due to political and economic uncertainty the market is due for a correction. However, where else can you get a decent return on your money? I look at market corrections as a chance to buy more of the shares I like.

[bouleversee] 11/7/2017 10:15

roddiemac2:

Thanks for the reassurance. However, they are quite a lot down from a month ago, aren't they? Still, not as bad as some of my holdings, many of which have dropped like a stone (e.g. Carillion yesterday) whilst waiting for probate (my husband died at the end of November) and before I could do the administration which I am just starting on. Difficult to know which to sell and which to keep; I need to realise cash for legacies to children. CLLN had been on the sell list but missed the boat now.

Do you still feel Fisher is a long term hold and what do you think it's likely to do in the immediate future? That's assuming you have your crystal ball handy!

[roddiemac2] 10/7/2017 12:05

PS --Since few shares have been traded in recent days , you can conclude most holders are happy to hold.

[roddiemac2] 10/7/2017 11:58

bouleversee,

Pitifully small volume today simply tells us that : nothing more. There is nothing weird about the trades.It is common to see a clutch of tiny trades in this stock.

[bouleversee] 10/7/2017 10:06

Well, they're not having much success. Why the drop?

[phillis] 10/7/2017 09:57

weird trades today
looks like someone is trying to keep the share price up

[quepassa] 26/5/2017 15:50

Good. Please do.

[bouleversee] 26/5/2017 13:13

Oh dear! Will filter your posts.

[phillis] 26/5/2017 07:42

I see the troll from Ezj has appeared here
Sorry for that

[phillis] 19/5/2017 13:23

might -but doesnt appear to
Look at 5 year record and declining ROC

[roddiemac2] 19/5/2017 11:23

Rigidly adhering to the use of traditional ratios can be a very good guide to " value", but might preclude an awareness of other factors: ie the huge potential growth in some of the markets they operates in : good diversification, both geographical and by product or service offered: great ten year record.

Hardly surprising that holders over 3% total about 60%, and some have held for many years.

[phillis] 19/5/2017 08:19

yes
I would be tempted at below £12 all other things being equal
My issue - as a potential investor - is about valuation
Try

"The formula for the PEG ratio is:

PEG Ratio = Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio / Annual Earnings Per Share Growth

The PEG ratio uses the basic format of the P/E ratio for a numerator and then divides by the potential growth for the stock. The two ratios may seem to be very similar but you can see the obvious difference with a calculation.

Let us take Company XYZ stock. Say XYZ is currently trading with a P/E ratio of 30. Typically, this would be considered an "expensive" stock. But let's also assume analysts forecast growth in earnings per share of +40% for the next year.

In this case, XYZ's PEG ratio would be:

PEG Ratio = 30 (P/E ratio) / +40% (earnings growth) = 0.75

A rule of thumb is that any PEG ratio below 1.0 is considered to be a good value. So even though XYZ is highly valued based on the P/E ratio, the PEG ratio says that it is undervalued relative to its growth potential.

[illiswilgig] 18/5/2017 21:40

'NB
the write back of the contingent considerations is evidence that sales expectations on the acquisition(s) are not being met'

I do see where you are coming from. But from where I am standing that's a very one sided viewpoint.

I agree it is evidence that the vendors sales expectations are not being met. It says little or nothing of the buyers expectations.

It also says little or nothing about when the sales expectations will or will not be met. They may be 6 months late or never to be met. Who knows?

Missing the vendors high expectations is not necessarily a problem, thats how earnouts work, and may in the long term mean that FSJ got a better deal.

But then again it may not.

Second guessing the management has little value for me. I invested at 75p in 2001 or thereabouts orginally. It's a stonking investment for me and I will be holding unless there is some evidence that the management has lost the plot and I don't see that yet. Below £12 I'd be adding more, but I doubt that I will have the pleasure,

cheers

[emeraldzebra] 18/5/2017 11:30

Phillis. i think you are 'over analysing' FSJ. My very amateurish advice : Buy the fu+k out of it and forget it. Just before you reckon you will snuff it, look at the share price and i am sure you will be v pleasantly surprised. And the grand children - v pleased too.

[phillis] 18/5/2017 10:24

in the 14s as best I recall. I traded a bit at the end on the ups and downs
felt it was fully valued then!

How is this relevant? ( I only once ever sold at the top!)

Not sure what an umbrella organisation is
Have never come across one before neither as investor or CEO

NB
the write back of the contingent considerations is evidence that sales expectations on the acquisition(s) are not being met

[roddiemac2] 17/5/2017 10:45

There is absolutely no comparison to be made between FSJ and RPC. It is daft to do so. FSJ is what I call an umbrella organisation . Many of the areas they operate in are in the early stages of development; companies acquired are often small, being themselves in the early stages of development. FSJ is effectively a nursery for the companies acquired.

What was the share price of FSJ when you last sold ?

[phillis] 16/5/2017 12:08

Boule
I dont know anything about carpets but I have a very profitable position in RPC
This however has an amber light waiting for trading progress
I may exit
At least RPC has a more coherent business model, whose acquisitions are large enough and connected enough to provide large synergies and economies of scale - unlike the scale of Fisher's buys

[phillis] 16/5/2017 12:05

ragbag = a miscellaneous collection of things

Is it not?

Look my initial premise was that this is a highly valued business the retained earnings of which have not changed for the 4 years shown on ADVFN financials page (it might be more - I didnt check) DESPITE THE REGULAR FLOW OF ACQUISTIONS

in other words focus on the real performance and not on what management want to concentrate on i.e underlying performance

EDIT
Make that 5 years

[bouleversee] 16/5/2017 11:53

I should have said "a bit like Phillis's view of Fisher)

[bouleversee] 16/5/2017 11:50

Fisher is almost a l7 bagger for me which will do nicely. I have never sold any but have given some to 2 children and 4 grandchildren and still have a decent holding. I bought them after reading one of John Lee's article in the FT.

I wonder how Phillis (or anyone else) would rate them against, say, RPC and Victoria (carpets and floorcoverings, not oil) who also make lots of acquisitions. The share price of both (which I also hold) has done well (Victoria's positively meteoric since Wilding took the helm) but RPC has floundered a bit of late because Elliott thinks they have been overdoing the buys, a bit like your view of Fisher. I don't feel competent to judge. However, I should have thought there was some merit in having a diversification of activity rather than having all your eggs in one basket, especially the oil industry which is still in a state of flux, hopefully on the up again now but for how long? The common denominator is specialist engineering and the ragbag seems like a good move to me, using their expertise in as many fields as they can competently manage, which should even out the peaks and troughs which have happened in the past.

Phillis said: " In the last 2 years FSJ have added back to retained earnings £12m of contingent consideration". I would appreciate an explanation of what this means, unless it means reserving for things they think might go wrong. If it does, is there anything wrong with that? Surely better than paying everything out in large divs. and then having to cut/axe and see a huge drop in share price a la Cobham, Interserve and various others I also hold. The div. they are paying is still a good return on my original investment. Steady as she goes and chacun a son gout.