Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[bouleversee] 25/10/2017 09:54

Roddiemac -

You are right, of course, as always. It's just that I am used to seeing only 1p or so difference in prices whereas the price I am offered to buy is about l2p more than the mid price shown on my p/f valuation but it doesn't actually amount to much when you work it out. Just my tired, old brain being slow.

More important is when the share price is likely to get back to where it was earlier in the year, for which a crystal ball is needed. I daresay that if I sell at a price lower than it was when my husband died, the price will immediately shoot up (as it has done with others I sold at a loss, e.g. Pearson, and if I buy them back in my ISA to hedge against this, it will go further down since I always seem to manage to do the wrong thing. Doesn't really make much difference in the great scheme of things so I may just toss a coin and get it over with.

You don't hold VCP by any chance, do you? My astronomic paper gain on that will, I think, compensate for most if not all of my other losses, till it also disappears in a puff of smoke, that is and if one ignores tax implications. All a bit too good to last.

Many thanks for your support.

[roddiemac2] 24/10/2017 19:29

bouleversee,

the current spread is less than 1%. That is not a big spread . I hold one small stock where the spread is 67/74 (10%+ ). I have a large holding in CML; the spread today was 455/470 ( 3%+)

I hope you are well.

[bouleversee] 23/10/2017 15:25

Is there always such a big spread on FSJ shares? I still haven't managed to sell the ones I need to sell from my late husband's estate as they have continued down rather than recover. I thought I might buy more in my own ISA acct. today and then sell when the price would recover the costs but although the portfolio valuation and research indicative price was l541, the online quotes I received (within seconds of each other) were 1554.56 to buy and l542.77 to sell. I haven't bought any for many years so don't know whether this is normal but it's a bit of a turnoff and in the end I didn't buy or sell. I had expected them to have returned to around £17 by now, as tipped.

My other selling dilemma is SSE, whose price has also dropped hugely since my husband died and was a much larger holding. I can't see them getting back to £15.54 in a hurry either, though I thought there might be a selling opportunity today as I heard that the govt. was backtracking on the cap. I need to get on and finish the admin. so am going to have to cut my losses. (Apologies for being OT)

All very tedious when one can't set a limit.

[emeraldzebra] 21/9/2017 07:44

Apparently there is a buy note out there on the shares today somewhere.

[emeraldzebra] 15/9/2017 15:57

Many thanks Roddy.

[roddiemac2] 14/9/2017 15:41

emerald ,

On most days trading is made up of many small deals. There is often little or no logic behind short term price movements . The best we can do is to recognise when a share is cheap and when it is overvalued. I try to concentrate on the story and and what I perceive to be the prospects. Many shares have drifted in recent weeks; I have just bought more CML shares , which have also drifted despite being financially very sound, and having very good growth prospects.

[emeraldzebra] 13/9/2017 15:30

it moves around like hell (often negatively !) on tiny volume -- for some unknown reason....

[roddiemac2] 11/9/2017 19:23

Investec are forecasting a pre-tax profit of £50.7m for the year to December 2017, and EPS of 84.6p ( last yr.£45.8m and 76.3p )

The Investors Chronicle says " The company has continued to grow underlying profit and margins despite tough market conditions due to its geographic and operational spread. Given the group`s defensive nature, and the fact that the shares are trading near our buy tip valuation at 19 times earnings, we see no reason to lose faith at this stage "---Buy.

[phillis] 31/8/2017 15:33

Illis
:-)

[bouleversee] 30/8/2017 19:01

The maddening thing is that whereas I can deal online with my sprogs' accounts, as executor I can only deal by post or over the phone and I had to fight to get permission to do the latter and the price started going down as I was going through the endless security and admin procedures and getting a quote, which I declined as I thought it would buck up after lunch but it continued to fall instead. Clearly I should have done the selling before the buying.

Shows how much I understand as I thought a 10% increase in the div. and what looked to me like reasonable results with a suggestion of much better things to come in the 2nd half were justification for the increase first thing. But then, I didn't understand why they had fallen so low anyway. As they are collectively the family's largest holding, it's very disappointing and a tad worrying.

[illiswilgig] 30/8/2017 17:36

bouleversee,

Yes the results were ok. Nothing special and so no reason to move the shareprice overall.

There are promising signs and the directors are promising a good full year result but I don't expect the market to reverse its current negative sentiment until some positive newsflow occurs and/or the company raises its profit expectations.

In the meantime who knows what the shareprice will do? But perhaps you can take comfort that my timing is no better than yours in the short term!

cheers

Illis

[illiswilgig] 30/8/2017 17:18

Phillis,

It was only a clue :-)

You see where the turnover has gone wrong, you can work out where the missing profit is? You need to do some work yourself?

But in case you can't - try reading the second table right below the first one!

Cheers

Illis

[roddiemac2] 30/8/2017 16:58

bouleversee,

Predicting short term share movements is difficult. There were four large trades marked as sells just after 12am . ( 3 trades totalling 143,794 shares at 1580p, and one trade of 75,397 shares at 1578.42p) Thereafter the price drifted in the usual small volume.

[bouleversee] 30/8/2017 13:51

Can anyone explain the strange trajectory of the share price today. As the results seemed to have been well received, I topped up in my sprogs' ISAs at £15.94 with the intention of selling those in my husband's estate when they had risen a bit more as I expected they would but instead they immediately started to fall and are now not much over £15.40. I can't win!

I'm sure they will be OK in the long run but I need to sell the estate shares as soon as possible.

[phillis] 30/8/2017 12:24

" Woefully short in producing a profit"
This means something different

One day Rodders, one day

[illiswilgig] 30/8/2017 10:39

Phillis,

I know where the turnover increase has fallen woefully short. I referred to it in my message above.

What surprises me is that you don't appear to know where the turnover increase has fallen woefully short?

Here's a clue. Read the first table in the H1 report.

cheers

Illis

[phillis] 30/8/2017 09:59

So where do you think the turnover increase has fallen woefully short in producing a profit increase
Either the existing business has turned down or the acquisitions have increased revenues but not profit

[roddiemac2] 30/8/2017 09:42

On the contrary, I would not want to be out of FSJ. Whilst it is impossible to predict when the business will grow significantly, I think it will do that. They are in markets likely to grow regardless of what economies do.

[phillis] 30/8/2017 09:27

Indeed
Actually the profit before minorities has gone down as has the diluted eps
No reason to hold yet

[roddiemac2] 30/8/2017 09:24

Phillis,

Look to the long term . Oops , I forgot , you don`t hold these.

[phillis] 30/8/2017 09:21

Relief rally?
Nice increase in the divi but a PBT decrease just over £200k on a 13% increase in revenue is poor stuff
Note the continuing decline in net cash and RoCE

[illiswilgig] 30/8/2017 08:54

Solid indeed. Well mostly.

A bit surprised by the continued weakness of offshore oil. I had expected them to have it stabilised by now. Very high profit leverage as well with profits halving in H1.

That works both ways if course. If the utilisation is now increasing as they state then profits will grow swiftly.

The limited impact of the fall in offshore oil profits does underscore how small a part of the company this has now become.

Noticed a small statement in tankships that they have won a contract to provide two tankers for refuelling of the new carrier (notice my deliberate ommission of the word aircaft). Good to know that its useful for something as well as playing cricket on the flight deck!

As usual much is down to H2 to achieve. But the directorspeak is more positive than
usual and I think broker analysis is probably too negative at the moment.

cheers

[roddiemac2] 30/8/2017 07:08

Solid results again today, and confidence for a strong second half. The dividend is increased by 10%.---I like it.