Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[bouleversee] 30/9/2015 18:35

Just came across this article on Motley Fool and was surprised when I checked current price how much FSJ had fallen recently:



All a bit depressing as it's my largest holding. Perhaps I should have rebalanced after all. I hadn't realised that the oil price would have such an impact, hopefully only temporarily. Debating whether to buy more and further unbalance my p/f.

[phillis] 18/9/2015 15:34

approaching reasonable value once more

[emeraldzebra] 16/9/2015 09:09

Illisillgig - a fine and v nicely balanced analysis. I agree - will just take a little time. If you get a moment or two, Can you please let me know the other main Co's that you follow - as am looking for a bit of inspiration and have a modest bequest that i am looking to invest in the short term for the medium to long term. I am v keen on DS Smith and Plexus which already involved with - so don't bother with them ! Many thanks indeed.

[illiswilgig] 15/9/2015 10:39

I don't see the share price going far in either direction right at the moment - in absence of further news. This is one where I take no news as good news.

I've taken another look at the earnings forecasts.

The recent results anticipated h2 earnings to be 'slightly' below last years - so certainly a profit warning in the sense that this years profits will be lower than last years. But the current brokers consensus looks like an over reaction to me.

With 30p in H1 and last years H2 of 49.2p 'slightly' below would mean something like 45p - lower and it would be 'significantly' below? That would put this FY on 75p.

Current broker consensus is 66.7p - which would imply 36.7p eps in H2 - that seems a lot more than slightly below 49.2p?

But that could just be blind optimism on my part so I looed at the perfomance of each division.

My own estimate of earnings in each division for H2, with growth in tankships, specialised technical and marine support 'returning to growth' and offshore oil stabilised is 42p in H2 and FY of 72p which is just in at the upper end of the range that Rivaldo quotes.

That puts FSJ on a P/E of 15.3 at the current price more if you take the lower end of the forecast P/E.

It's somewhat expensive if you view it a specialist technical services company with a large exposure to oil.

But the management team has a proven record of steering the company into higher margin niches in growing areas and exiting less profitable areas.

I think the perception of the company as heavily exposed to oil is wrong and creates an overly negative view of the companies prospects which will keep the share price depressed in the short term. Offshore oil now accounts for only around 20% of profits likely in h2 - though this could recover swiftly with an upturn in maintenance and support work.

Meanwhile the company is a leader in it's niche areas and has been taking the opportunity to buy assets at good value in the recent downturn.

With 3 divisions growing, acquisitions in technical services and marine support I can see a small upwards rerating possible with estimates rising for FY 2016

I doubt it will happen in the short term, but with announcements on major contracts possible it's hard to time - and I'm useless at timing anyway so I'm happy to hold, including the ones I bought recently at below 1000p, and await the return to growth,

disclosure - clearly I am bullish on FSJ! I have been for 10 years or more......

cheers

[apad] 14/9/2015 12:07

WEIR recently ejected from FT100 too.
I'm now out of FSJ (small loss) & HTG (small profit) for the same reasons as riv.
Both are on my watchlist.
apad

[rivaldo] 14/9/2015 11:44

Thanks for the comments above chaps. As you know I no longer hold here, but FSJ is a high quality company and as such is high on my watchlist.

I do think posters here might want in particular to know that FSJ has been ejected from the FTSE250 and that broker targets/forecasts have been reduced since no-one else seems to post this kind of important info.

It's important to see both sides. I myself am usually a very long-term investor (note my thread on VLE if you're interested!), but I did feel that FSJ was now trading on too high a rating, and I still feel that's the case given new forecasts of between 66p-73p EPS going forward for 2016 and the lack of growth therein from 2015.

But I'm quite prepared to be wrong and for the share price to sit where it is for some time without falling to my target price range given that FSJ probably enjoys good institutional support.

[roddiemac2] 11/9/2015 18:29

3800,

I have probably not made myself very clear. Who is to say what a reasonable PE ratio is ? FSJ has no comparators .I will be very surprised to see the shares drift much , unless markets take a real bashing: always a possibility.

[roddiemac2] 10/9/2015 10:16

3800,

I appreciate what you say. Rivaldo is a thorough researcher of stocks. My intention was not to dispute his comments , but to point out that perhaps investors here, including institutions, are unusually loyal ( not without good reason ).If the shares drop , I will add to my holding.

I don`t think that FSJ will make ten times my money in the next ten years, but I do think that there is huge potential in many of the markets they address. In the meantime , my holding is of a size that I can almost live off the dividend payout.
It suits me very well not to jump in and out of stocks trying to maximise my gains .The size of my holdings make it difficult to do so. I aim to stick with a good story for the long term. I was very overweight in FSJ from the outset, and the current dividend return represents more than 20% of my original capital outlay: beats trading .

[bouleversee] 09/9/2015 19:36

That's me, Roddiemac. Far and away my best investment, now spread around the family. Wish I had had more in at the outset, though I did add at one point when they were down; might do so again though that would make me even more overweight. Persimmon, Clarkson, British Polythene, Clarkson and recently Victoria (carpets not oil) have also done well but Fisher is the star, albeit dragged down recently because of the oil situation. As for the likes of Shell, Glaxo and the miners, total disaster so far as I am concerned. Give me the smaller, niche companies every time.

[redartbmud] 03/9/2015 15:19

rivaldo

I do like people who look on the bright side.

red

[roddiemac2] 03/9/2015 15:14

??? You might get lucky rivaldo. you might not.

[rivaldo] 03/9/2015 10:40

FSJ have now been dropped out of the FTSE250 following last night's FTSE rejig after the poor results:



And Canaccord have dropped their price target to 1050p:



The latest broker forecasts from Singer and Canaccord are for around 66p EPS this year and 66p-69p EPS next year.

I'd say a price of around 900p-1000p would be fair value at present given the above.

[bouleversee] 26/8/2015 13:30

In today's Times, Tempus is advising "Hold for the yield". LOL.

Had intended to buy today but no time this morning and with such a jump will wait to see if there is a set back.

[tintin82] 26/8/2015 09:57

Phillis, calm down, settle pettle, we are all friends here looking to make money. My FSJ trades as you ask11/13 buy 10.8006/14 sell 13.4011/14 buy 10.9003/15 sell 12.4008/15 buy 10.00All the best, good luck

[phillis] 26/8/2015 09:34

take a jump roddie please
and take of the rose tinted spectacles
ok value at current levels

you might wants to analyse the ROCE over time

Lots of acquisitons and reduced earnings

[redartbmud] 25/8/2015 20:49

illis

A good analysis, very insightful. I agree that it is reasonable value at these levels. Roll on better times.

red

[illiswilgig] 25/8/2015 20:10

Using the ratio of post tax diluted 'Statutory' 2014 EPS H1 to H2 (not underlying) I get an annualised EPS of 74p - this is lower than the 77.4p still being shown on Digital look - so some downgrade for the full year to be expected? Or not? Be interesting to see if this does happen?

At the closing price of 982p gives an P/E of 13.2

Using underlying diluted 2014 EPS reduces the annual outturn to 69p (underlying) a current underlying P/E of around 14.2

Mr Spock (1506) excellent calculation averages the last three years outcome to give us a P/E of 15.4 - with H1 at 46% of annual profit.

A range of P/E from 13.2 to 15.4 depending upon how you calculate it. Take your pick?

Directors outlook statement - 'We expect to see a stronger second half with good trading continuing in Specialist Technical and Tankships, reinforced by a resumption of growth in Marine Support.'

54% of the profit does indeed rate as a stronger second half - though only just and I think we're being steered towards a better result than that with growth in three divisions and the offshore oil division stabilised.

No big deal either way - right now I reckon it's reasonably valued as it is. But in the long term its undervalued and FSJ could be rerated on its longterm prospects once again. When? Well I'd be rich if I knew that,

cheers

[redartbmud] 25/8/2015 18:29

Filter button Phyllis!

[roddiemac2] 25/8/2015 18:07

Phillis,

We are used to friendly discussion on this board. Rudeness and boasting is not welcome here.
You might like to consider that many of the posters here have been in this stock since the shares traded at less than a pound. The dividend payout now , expressed as a percentage of their original capital outlay makes up for any relatively short term downward price movements .The real money is always made long term.

Be polite , or don`t post here.

[phillis] 25/8/2015 16:01

tin head

a reasonable business model but simply overvalued

began selling down between £13-14

How about you?

[peterbill] 25/8/2015 16:00

Last full year divi (2014) was 22p and with the share price just under a tenner - a yield of 2.2% looks about right if they are able to keep it the same as last year.

Takes a few minutes to plot a graph of divis over the years from 1998 - 3.2p to 2014 - 22p

Divi growth is in double figures for most years - increasing all the time.