Firstgroup Share Discussion Threads

[dantee] 19/6/2013 16:36

cheers again seccol,i think i will wait for the dust to settle after the 25th
in that case unless the ord shares get sold down too far beforehand and an opp
to enter really cheap presents itself.I am sure this company will make a solid
comeback at some point (good point about divi - II,s will not be happy ).

[pyueck] 19/6/2013 16:33

I can't even be bothered with this board any more.

Stupid questions of the day

1) 'What will the effect be when the divi is cut or is this priced in!!!'

2) 'Does anyone see the current fgp share price falling as the week goes on?'

3) 'Any chance of a long term holder explaining what is going on with this rights issue ?'

[dantee] 19/6/2013 15:44

seccol,one more thing if thats ok - what key dates concearning the RI should i be looking for ? sorry to be a pain mate.

[dantee] 19/6/2013 15:33

seccol,many thanks for the explanation i think i understand it better now,have not had much experience with RI so appreciate the info.

[seccol] 19/6/2013 15:24

The premium to RI price of 85p is 12.5p add these together and you get
the same price as the listed shares ie 97.5p
The RI go up and down as the listed go up/down.
If you were to sell your RI you'd make the 12.5p a share and have a diluted
holding.
Diluted holdings are imo not a problem you just trade the new price
when the RI's expire.................emphasis on the word trade........
you are correct 3 for 2...

[dantee] 19/6/2013 15:00

Any chance of a long term holder explaining what is going on with this rights issue ? am i right in thinking that holders were entitled for a 3 for 2 offer at 85p a pop on the RI ? i do not understand why the RI has fallen so much.

Am interested in ord shares as a speculative punt,but want to get my head around
the RI. Would appreciate any insight.

Dan

[slaterlpj] 19/6/2013 12:35

And ben Bernanki speaks today, at 6pm.

[careful] 19/6/2013 11:31

all that really matters is the profit fgp can make from its £6.9bn turnover.
just 3% of turnover pre tax say 200m would see these rocket.
can they succeed in running this large business well?

the short term share price is irrelevant.
that will depend upon what coloured socks ben Bernanki wears and the movements of these crazy markets.

[seccol] 19/6/2013 11:25

error corrected.

[slaterlpj] 19/6/2013 11:19

Bottomfisher. Unfortunately you don't have much time left. There isn't going to be that kind of announcement, so I guess it's time to speculate, -- or not.

I've decided to speculate with one lot. Another £9k. As long as the share price is above 85p, that additional money is safe at least. I can only hope that is not an unreasonable speculation.

The trouble for me is that I also hold some of these in a SIPP. And I long ago decided against more funding into a pension of any description.

So do I sell the rights and use the money to buy more existing fgp? I Wish I had on day one, and then held off until today, when I could have got more for the same money.

It would be just my luck, I could sell my rights today, wait till the 25th and the FGP share price will continue to rise.

Does anyone see the current fgp share price falling as the week goes on?

[bottomfisher] 19/6/2013 10:57

When is FGP going to say something about its new chairman to replace the discredited Martin Gilbert?. An announcement at the time of the rights issue would have been a reassuring sign that someone with stature was prepared to take on this poisoned chalice.

Not being a FGP expert, how about promoting Tim O'Toole to chairman, and bringing in a new ceo with bags of operational experience?

The lack of executive directors on the board is worrying. What would happen if Mr O'Toole fell under the proverbial bus?

My decision on whether to back this rights issue hinges very much on the quality of management issue.

On paper at least Tim O'Toole has the range of experience on both sides of the Atlantic to do the chairman's job. He is also of an age (57 I think) that means he is not going to hang around for ever trying to sort out FGP.

Bottom line, are FGP's problems down to Mr Gilbert and the board's failed acquisition strategy, or is there something fundamentally wrong with FGP's business model which cannot be repaired by this highly dilutive rights issue?

[garycook] 19/6/2013 01:51

Took up Full rights.Time to Fill!!

[careful] 18/6/2013 19:49

no room for ditherers in this game batham.
it is fill or kill.

[batham1] 18/6/2013 19:38

Still unsure what to do. What if I send my form of instruction to isa provider saying i will take up rights, but then change my mind and sell shares and rights on line before the deadline of 5pm Friday arrives?

[nomdeplume] 18/6/2013 18:44

Careful

Re post 3076: the risk is different, of course. You could have lost everything by buying the fgpn rights.

[fovargue] 18/6/2013 18:29

The underwriter's probably decided they'll lose less by buying a few million at £1 if it avoids being saddled with the best part of a billion at 85p. ;)

[slaterlpj] 18/6/2013 17:37

So can someone explain what's happening now? Closed shorts? Last minute RI take up? Realisation that it was oversold?

Or is this a false dawn and calm before another storm?

[pyueck] 18/6/2013 17:28

Sorry mathawood but sure I said pretty much same weeks ago ;)

Not sure the results were that awful though.

[careful] 18/6/2013 16:33

what an irritating game.
i bght some fgp yesterday at 91.5p.
very pleased.
but if i had bght fgpn rights i could have sold before close and doubled my money.
..in one day.

i have made about 10% in a day and feel sick.
asleep at the wheel.

[careful] 18/6/2013 15:50

good analysis math.
we just need the courage to buy during this storm.

[slaterlpj] 18/6/2013 15:14

mathewawood, any guess then what happens in the next 2/3 days?

[mathewawood] 18/6/2013 15:05

When you think about it this was the perfect storm.

i) Dividend not cut but wiped out. All the Income holders sell
ii) Results look awful (even though underlying EPS wasn't bad). Growth seekers sell.
iii) Obvious share price fall coming. So short term traders take up short positions. More downward pressure
iv) Big RI. Suddenly those still left holding shares think "Are you mad. I dont want to put more money into a stock that's dropping like a stone." They sell.
v) Gets closer to RI price so the fear starts that RI will be a disaster creating huge over-hang to the share price for months to come. Shorters smell blood and double up.

Thats how you get a share down from 220p to 99p(Pre RI) after the results were in-line with broker EPS numbers.

[careful] 18/6/2013 13:51

it is not suspiciuos.
it was very temping to buy in yesterday.
but it coulds easily have gone down to zero on such a levered play.
these traders can fiddle anything these days, for a short while at least.

[poolies3] 18/6/2013 13:38

Is anyone else like myself a bit suspicious. Two days before we have to buy the part paid shares, they rise by nearly 100% for no apparent reason
Its either people have realised how cheap these shares are and the rise is on
OR next week they will drop like a stone
I am like RF and have bought the rights today so lets hope its the former