Finsbury Food Share Discussion Threads

[jpjp100] 16/1/2020 20:30

The UK business (£278.5m) is bigger by far than Overseas (£36.7m), but having spent £17m and investing many hours of management time into it, I was expecting - or, at least, hoping for - better

[spaceparallax] 16/1/2020 11:46

I'm very happy with the TS given the political and economic uncertainty of recent months. It would be nice if the overseas figures were positive too but the fact that the overall numbers are up 4.7% suggests that the domestic figures contribute the lion's share of trading.

[jpjp100] 16/1/2020 11:14

A nicely bland pre-close statement

The 5.8% UK bakery growth is good news

The 3.5% overseas decline is bad news - I understand that a lot of the Ultrapharm business is in that bit and it would be a disappointment if that acquisition wasn't delivering results yet.

[sphere25] 13/1/2020 14:02

Stream of buying currently coming in. Very easy to spot in a stock like this. Might have been tipped.

Next leg up possibly.

EDIT: One of the other things out there today is a report on the bread market where FIF are mentioned:



Too much of a lag for that though.

MARKET CLOSE UPDATE:

Lovely breakout over that key (and bizarrely psychological) £1 mark with someone coming in to mop up a tidy 900k and 800k shares @98.5p to aid the move. Next stop £1.10.

All aboard!

14/01 UPDATE: Very poor follow through from the promising move yesterday. Folk have sold the tip...the very next day. Clearly not a convincing tipster! :-D

There should be a trading update any day now. Last year was mid January. Nothing on the investor relations website to confirm the date. I'd expect the update to be in line with market expectations.

16/01 UPDATE: As expected, trading in line. However there is some caution (as per previous statements) and the rate of growth has slowed:

Agm update on 20th Nov: "Sales for the first four months of the new financial year grew by 6.4% to GBP101.5m"

Today: "The Group generated total sales of GBP159.4m in H1, representing a 4.7% increase versus the equivalent period in 2018"

[spaceparallax] 19/12/2019 17:30

Sadly, it's a share that, despite its rock solid performance during recent difficult times, is subject to the manipulative vagaries of the mkt that yield substantial share price drops on the back of modest trading and modest rises from substantial trades. FIF share price bears little relationship to the Company's financial performance.

[sphere25] 19/12/2019 08:54

Tipped? There was a noticeable barrage of buying yesterday afternoon.

This board is dead, always a good sign. Slow and boring one's are usually the best. Trickle up, consolidate, trickle up, consolidate - that will do.

[sphere25] 26/11/2019 10:26

Another significant chunk (1.47m) mopped up this morning. Clearly large demand in the background.

Hopefully that signals the end of the consolidation phase and the stock can push on higher.

UPDATE 28/11/2019

A good show of confidence out. RNS shows Ruffer adding to their already sizeable position, increasing their stake to over 18%.

Clear up the loose stock at these levels and a break of 85 will be on for a very significant move imo.

UPDATE 13/12/2019

Buying again this morning. Alot of the large caps have been marked up and folk are chasing stocks higher. Many small caps like FIF will lag, which provides a nice opportunity before the stock catches up with the wider market rally.

[topvest] 21/11/2019 21:23

A well run company.

[jpjp100] 21/11/2019 06:23

Agm statement is, IMO, further positioning fif as an acquirer / consolidator... if opportunities present themselves... at sensible prices

[sphere25] 20/11/2019 09:52

Nothing untoward in that statement - all on track with momentum maintained and the strongest position in recent years.

Headed to test £1 - abit of patience required.

[spaceparallax] 20/11/2019 09:49

What a bizarre thing the Mkt is - a super positive trading statement, despite the Country's economic woes, and yet the share price dips!

[sphere25] 06/11/2019 09:54

As per my posts above, ALL the previous selling has been absorbed by large buyers with the stock continually creeping higher. It is looking a tad perky this morning and threatening a further break higher.

A gradual move to test £1 is the target.

[spaceparallax] 17/10/2019 16:36

SP showing a little life again

[sphere25] 03/10/2019 09:47

ALL that selling and yet the stock is creeping higher.

Interesting that ;-)

Perhaps this is one of the handful of stocks that can outperform the chaos in the wider market.

[s34icknote] 30/9/2019 12:11

Lots of chunky selling going onSicknote

[sphere25] 23/9/2019 08:19

Some whopping big volume exchanges last week with significant volume on both Thursday and Friday.

Clearly serious interest in the background as the volume on Friday of over 10m is the largest since 2013.

[sphere25] 18/9/2019 12:20

Ok folks, further to the post below, I'm accumulating stock. Stock is hard to get hold of, but there is too much value to ignore.

There is alot of demand coming in from other buyers too.

Edit: Price has got away abit. Price spiked shortly after this post. Wait for a pullback now.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sphere25
16 Sep '19 - 12:03 - 2048 of 2056 Edit
0 0 0
Yes, this one looks interesting as it has already been...err... creamed from over 120.

- Strong growth in H2 with continued confidence into the new year

- Net debt has risen primarily because:

"On 3 September 2018 the Group acquired the entire share capital of Ultrapharm Limited (Ultrapharm) for £16.9m"

Also, costs relating to closure of bakeries and acquisitions of about £3.5m

Unsure how many more exceptionals to come, but with capex expected to fall (see below), there is a nice chunk of operating cashflow to cover the capex and the dividend, so debt should come down gradually.

"With the Group now in its strongest position in recent years and having completed a period of intense investments including the IT platform roll out and the new Free From bakery in Poland, we are expecting to significantly reduce our capital spend going forward as we focus on driving further efficiencies from the new systems and processes and utilise our additional capacity"

So with the strongest position in years, growth to come, a single digit p/e and a yield of 5%, there does appear to be a fair bit of doom and gloom priced in here. Once more, it boils down to the length of political meddling and whether that affects things here materially or whether the worst is now in, particularly considering the already resilient performance.

I'm certainly tempted!

[jpjp100] 18/9/2019 07:00

Good performance

Line drawn under previous ‘investment217; period

Can’t stand still though... will be looking for acquisitions and will be well placed to buy given it’s 10 year record

I like it, but it mmust keep the pedal pressed

[spaceparallax] 17/9/2019 13:13

I think they made quite a profit on the sale and were keen to re enter the mkt when the exclusion agreement expired.

[topvest] 17/9/2019 12:46

Agreed. Very strong management in a tough environment. The only thing that I never really understood is why they sold their gluten free brand, only then to buy another a few years later. Anyone understand?

[spaceparallax] 17/9/2019 12:32

The Management has been exceptionally good over the last decade - they've really stabilized the finances, improved efficiency and shown vision in pursuing complementary opportunities.

[s34icknote] 17/9/2019 11:12

Looks a steady ship . Good div and expansion. Doubled up yesterday after results .Sicknote

[cwa1] 16/9/2019 17:44

An excellent contrarian buy signal I feel...

[buywell3] 16/9/2019 17:18

long term chart IMO looking iffy

results did not impress me much