Finsbury Food Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 16/9/2019 12:35

Always a solid performer in my view. Results are pretty good. Much better value than it was.

[sphere25] 16/9/2019 12:03

Yes, this one looks interesting as it has already been...err... creamed from over 120.

- Strong growth in H2 with continued confidence into the new year

- Net debt has risen primarily because:

"On 3 September 2018 the Group acquired the entire share capital of Ultrapharm Limited (Ultrapharm) for £16.9m"

Also, costs relating to closure of bakeries and acquisitions of about £3.5m

Unsure how many more exceptionals to come, but with capex expected to fall (see below), there is a nice chunk of operating cashflow to cover the capex and the dividend, so debt should come down gradually.

"With the Group now in its strongest position in recent years and having completed a period of intense investments including the IT platform roll out and the new Free From bakery in Poland, we are expecting to significantly reduce our capital spend going forward as we focus on driving further efficiencies from the new systems and processes and utilise our additional capacity"

So with the strongest position in years, growth to come, a single digit p/e and a yield of 5%, there does appear to be a fair bit of doom and gloom priced in here. Once more, it boils down to the length of political meddling and whether that affects things here materially or whether the worst is now in, particularly considering the already resilient performance.

I'm certainly tempted!

[spaceparallax] 16/9/2019 09:35

Very impressive results - especially so in these difficult times. The mkt response speaks volumes and is likely to continue as the news spreads.

[buywell3] 16/9/2019 07:27

AS buywell reads these results

Profit is down circa 9% on 2018

and

The Group's total net debt is up to £35.6 million (2018: £15.6 million), up £20.0 million from the prior year.

[studentinvestor13] 27/7/2019 12:24

I have bought in here on Friday because it looks far too cheap and the business has not let margins slip in a really tough trading environment so as this starts to ease and because of the massive capital renewal I really think this can kick on.
9x pe target price so 87 pence. Nice defensive stock if the market wobbles

And as a leading UK independent baker I wonder if anyone is running the rule over these guys at these levels

[jpjp100] 18/7/2019 07:46

Strong TS

I think the previous sale was ok at the price achieved

Ultrapharm could end up being better by helping get things going outside the UK

[spaceparallax] 15/7/2019 13:49

SR, you're not wrong about the sale but they did obtain a decent price; presumably their agreement to self-exclude from that sector has now expired.

[spaceparallax] 15/7/2019 13:48

Too true TopV, sadly it reflects the broken nature of our marketplace that is open to manipulation and does little to reflect intrinsic value.

[srichardson8] 15/7/2019 12:38

Am I wrong in thinking that FIF sold its 'growth' gluten free business about three years ago and has now bought another? Seems a bit strange - an admission of a strategic error or a good deal financially? But I agree that this looks way too cheap now - especially after this pretty upbeat update - and have bought back in after (for the record) having departed in Nov 16 with a modest 20% profit after a year.

[topvest] 15/7/2019 12:04

Yes, very odd that this has been so weak. Nothing has really changed versus when it was twice the price.

[spaceparallax] 15/7/2019 11:43

A very impressive TS that should cement investor confidence and a return to a more sensible share price

[spaceparallax] 01/5/2019 17:31

Wrong thread

[sammu] 17/4/2019 12:46

The fall here looks overdone, presumably based on potential disorderly brexit related impact rather than recent trading. The retrace may have further to go but I don't see it going back to where it was while we still have the uncertainty.

[chester] 05/4/2019 10:28

50% retrace of the whole move, all time low 12p to all time high 138p = 60p.
Good risk/reward here.

[johnwig] 04/4/2019 12:26

topvest, you have no idea what you are talking about, do you?

[topvest] 02/4/2019 20:19

Minimum wage increase yet again is likely to be causing some pain in these businesses, as I suspect their customers say..."get lost, be 5% more efficient!"
To be fair, management have done a very good job of recovering prices historically from a highly frugal customer base, which is probably part of the reason for their high salaries. There must be a point though where things just get very very difficult.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 02/4/2019 15:59

I'm not sure I can see a reason for the steep fall here. I know they're facing input inflation but that's nothing new and they've managed it fairly well in the past. They've also put a huge amount into plant in recent years so hopefully that is coming to an end and they can start to generate some meaningful cash.

Isn't the historic p/e now about 6?

I bought a few around 76p expecting them to recover to around the £1 mark but all they've done since is fall further.

[theduke420] 02/4/2019 13:10

How low can ya go

[remslie] 01/4/2019 21:00

Thanks for your view though I think packages are high.
I believe both butter and flour prices both off their highs however I suspect wage inflation a concern.

[topvest] 31/3/2019 21:52

About a £1m each. Probably the going rate. It's very surprising that these have slipped as far as they have. I feel fortunate to have got out at £1 or so. Bought these originally at 20p and 40p, but seem to be heading that way again even though the results have been pretty good. Still hold indirectly through Lonfin. It looks like cost pressures are impacting the business a little this year, albeit historically they have done a good job in passing them on. Think they will do OK long term, for what its worth.

[remslie] 31/3/2019 21:22

I find it amazing that the remuneration committee allow such large salaries and benefits to be paid to the two senior directors. Surely the senior Directors should receive a market rate salary and options which can be excercised at a share price well north of today’s share price. Their current remuneration is equivalent to a FTSE 250 company. Indeed the Directors hold relatively few shares which is always a concern.
I am surprised the major shareholders allow these enormous pay packets whilst delivering such a poor return to shareholders.
Miton and Ruffer etc should get involved imo

[woodcutter] 27/3/2019 12:29

It looks to me as though there's a persistent seller in the market, probably one of the institutions offloading. I'll wait to see them clear before accumulating.
Given the yield curve inversion co's like FIF may well be sought after as safer havens once the main market sell off gets underway.

As always i may be wrong

woody

[jpjp100] 22/3/2019 07:24

It does seem a pretty harsh response by the market to a pretty reasonable set of interims

That said, price action is often a precursor to events... Who knows what is round the corner.

[boffster] 26/2/2019 11:56

Looking from the outside in, the shares look pretty fairly valued at this level to me.