Filtronic Share Discussion Threads

[donald pond] 06/2/2024 10:03

HastingsIf you have a chance look at my Twitter thread on FTC. I think cavendish have published figures for 25 which are absurdly conservative. That could be part of a plan of course, but they are suggesting H2 will be £15.1 revs and FY25 only £24m. That makes no sense but I'd value viewshttps://x.com/donaldpond6/status/1754806149512040902?s=46&t=YfR7OyhMlqZLtI-h86iCxA

[hastings] 06/2/2024 09:55

Got a call with management later, so I'll try and post a write up tomorrow for interest.

[donald pond] 06/2/2024 07:45

£7.8m for one part of the contract and getting paid to do development on the other. Also I'm not sure BAE had been mentioned as a client before.It looks like we can expect the next couple of years to see exponential growthIn the last 8 months that's £25m of new contracts announced.

[bazworth] 06/2/2024 07:24

Estienne, if he/she has read the announcements then a little hiding under the bed sheets might well be appropriate! Think Estienne last quoted back to 14p, my ar£e!

Happy days…..

[mesquida] 06/2/2024 07:21

Yes, bazworth , that order is a real biggie , and good to see that the component shortage problems are now behind us. Should be a good day for share price . Will be interesting to hear Estienne's take on all this .

[eigthwonder] 06/2/2024 07:20

Hang out the bunting - FTC actually come out with a statement that meets or exceeds the hopes of investors

[bazworth] 06/2/2024 07:16

And the statement by the Chairman isn’t too shabby either!

Well done to all at Filtronic, quite amazing!

[bazworth] 06/2/2024 07:10

Unbelievable, what a great announcement re the contracts!

[donald pond] 02/2/2024 21:09

Good to see the first trades over 25pWhether we get positive words on Tuesday or not, basic maths tells us that the bigger contracts the company started announcing 12 months ago will soon start getting paid. I simply don't see how turnover won't start increasing sharply from here. Then it's all about whether FTC can scale up effectively and increase margins

[mesquida] 02/2/2024 10:35

Yes, bazworth, the forward looking statement will be more important than the historic numbers. I hope to see them flesh out the longer term potential in low orbit satellites, that would surely ensure that the house broker re-jigs his forecasts/price target.

[bazworth] 02/2/2024 10:02

1/2 year results will likely show that Filtronic is trading in-line with previous expectations. I hope to read a very positive forward looking statement though!!

Fingers firmly crossed!!

Cheers

[mesquida] 02/2/2024 09:15

Results on Tuesday, you really would not want to be out of this over the weekend !

[bazworth] 01/2/2024 08:53

Wonder when we will break through 25p..........!!

[wisecat2] 28/1/2024 19:23

This guy Richard Staveley is a top stock picker , he would have done his DD on FTC before being so vocal

[bazworth] 28/1/2024 16:54

Many thanks for that link donald, very useful.

I share your view with regard to the potential for upgrades. The current broker price target was set quite some time ago and most certainly before the excellent news releases of late.

Cheers

[donald pond] 28/1/2024 09:05

I think the size of the new contracts announced over the last year mean the 24/25 figures are surely going to show immense growth that brokers have yet to reflect FTC gets mentioned by the Rockwood manager as an example of the sort of company they like just before the hour mark herehttps://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/money-makers/id1154102371?i=1000643191227

[bazworth] 26/1/2024 16:23

What do you mean donald, large share price rises?

Or perhaps Broker price-target upgrades?

[donald pond] 26/1/2024 15:49

New highsWe surely start to get big upgrades soon

[estienne] 22/1/2024 19:42

FTC is far too small to be of interest to Thales or BAe

[wisecat2] 20/1/2024 16:23

Someone wisely taking the Bennett’s stock

[tp6] 20/1/2024 14:19

Wonder if it might become a target for Thales / Bae systems et al. Defence spending is booming.

[estienne] 18/1/2024 11:04

The Bennett's taking profits wisely

[wisecat2] 17/1/2024 17:13

someone seems to be mopping up any sell orders

[donald pond] 15/1/2024 13:13

I wrote a piece about FTC on stockopedia today. I can't cut and paste the visuals, but if you don't subscribe, here is the main section of text:

In 2021 there was a change in management, with a new CEO in February 21 and a new chair in November. The following 24 months were difficult, as supply chains meant that fulfilling orders was not straightforward.

In a recent update they have said that results are going to be in line with expectations, so nothing exciting is expected in the results to be announced next month. The FY ends on 31 May, so the next results will, if I understand correctly, be HY 24.

What has changed is the new contracts being agreed that have yet to find their way into the figures. I'm going to set out the contract wins announced over the last couple of years, since new management came in:

October 21: $0.8m for pilot phase 5G, expected to mainly be billed in 2023

June 22: follow-on contract for the above, now expected to be $0.9m, again, mainly in 2023

June 22: new filters contract, £350k, expected to be recognised in 2023

July 22: filters with existing client, £400k, expected during FY23 with follow-on potential

July 22: defence client, £500k, expected to be delivered in 23

Jan23: low earth orbit (LEO) satellite contract worth £2m expected to be recognised in 23. At the same time the trading update said supply chain shortages meant:

"Revenue in H1 FY2023 was £8.4m (FY2022: £8.0m) representing 5% growth, with
£1.0m of adjusted EBITDA. Strong demand has carried through to H2 which is
reflected by the current order book of £17m but we are currently experiencing
a shortage on a number of unique semiconductor components which is impacting
our ability to meet customer schedules in the second half. Our efforts to find
the components from alternative sources in the secondary market have so far
been unsuccessful. Consequently, this near-term timing issue will result in
weaker trading in FY2023 than current market expectation. As these temporary
shortages unwind, we expect an uplift in revenue and a resumption to plan in
FY2024."

So, we are being flagged up, 12 months ago, to expect 24 to be better than 23.

April 23: defence contract, $0.8m, in FY24

July 23: EUR3.7m contract from European Space Agency, part of FY24 forecast
Sept 23: £3.4m LEO win, expected in FY24

Dec 23: £4.5m RF contract win starting Q4 CY 2024

Dec 23: £4.8m LEO win with revenue to be recognised in CY 24

Today: £2m RF win with Qinetic, phase 1 only, to be recognised over next 2 years

In other words, quite suddenly, around a year ago, the size of contracts increased markedly. In 22, 4 contracts were announced, worth around £2m. In 23, over £15m were announced. None of these are likely to have found their way into the first half figures to be reported next month. In addition, we were told that a lot of the "business as usual" from financial year 23 will be rolled over into 24.

It seems to me, based on the information that we do know, that Filtronic are going to issue results that show very significant growth very soon. And from the frequency of sizeable contracts being announced, the momentum seems very strong. Of course, can margins be increased? Will the investment needed to keep at the cutting edge swallow profits? That's to be determined, but increasing takeover sharply, particularly in a new sector, is a very positive sign.

[donald pond] 15/1/2024 07:35

Should start moving freely through the 20s now. We used to announce contracts for £500k, now they are £2m just for phase 1.