Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[sogoesit] 23/1/2018 19:01

Ok, thanks; interesting view.

[villarich] 23/1/2018 18:59

I think with current growth being maintained then current PE of around 60 is fair value. Seems like it will be maintained unless there is a shock in the results tomorrow.But to be honest I don't really put much stock in PEs as they are irrelevant for high growth stocks. Also I'm in from below £6 and have averaged up since then to just over £10. PE's are only relevant if you're making a decision to buy or sell at a period of time. I'm looking to do neither.

[sogoesit] 23/1/2018 18:06

Villa,
My guestimate last year for EPS was 40p. I reckoned fair value was paying 60x making £24 my target.
You say 42.5p so i was wondering what you would pay for that, as a buy, "fair value" now... 50x, 40x, 60x???

Once we get tomorrow's update then I can work out what I will pay for next year's EPS.
I don't think a take-over is credible so I don't put this into the equation... just how many times EPS you would pay on the current growth.

[villarich] 23/1/2018 17:45

Do you mean from a takeover perspective?

[ccr1958] 23/1/2018 17:31

I am really surprised the share price didn’t finish even ,don’t tell me the Shylocks aren’t in control... Now on this occasion I didn’t see this in my Tea leaves but I would have put money on the even ,all but 2p finish ,very predictable . Anyway I holding mine just for the Craic, now that is technical !

[wetdream] 23/1/2018 16:43

Two days trading-identical picture.
Looks like we're in the hands of the Bots.

[sogoesit] 23/1/2018 16:39

How much would you pay for 42.5p earnings, Villa?

[villarich] 23/1/2018 15:47

42.5p EPS gives us just short of £49m profit for the full year. Post tax profit at half year was £19.4m or 16.8p EPS. We got 75% sales growth in H2 2016 compared to H2 2015. A similar result could put us close to that EPS number.

[terry topper] 23/1/2018 15:06

I think that tomorrow's update will show continued very strong growth and will lead to upgrades to around 42.5p EPS for 2017 putting it on a historic P/E of under 60x at today's price. Unless growth is suddenly going to decelerate massively (unlikely given push into US) then the prospective multiple is not demanding. An agreed takeout will need to be at >£4bn IMO but not expecting that yet.

[christh] 23/1/2018 14:50

Tomorrow will hit £26!

[bamboo2] 23/1/2018 14:29

Since my daily chart shows [4x] four potential turns on 24-25/1/2018, I have decided not to try and trade the update, until we've seen the market reaction. Probably goes without saying there will likely be lots of volatility, as at previous updates.

[christh] 23/1/2018 14:15

£25.40 close today as it gets close to closing time.
All in my opinion

[christh] 23/1/2018 12:45

sherwick
well said, China is already supplied via Hong Kong but no news of expanding in mainland China.

[sherwick] 23/1/2018 12:32

Don't forget China and India expansion too, where there is a massive middle class for this premium mixer.

[villarich] 23/1/2018 12:18

Nailed on the eh?

[christh] 23/1/2018 10:33

I do expect to open at £26 tomorrow.
The news will be very good regarding trading during the 2017 period.

The expansion in the US will be received very well by the market.

So there you have it

[orissander] 23/1/2018 09:51

It's the same asset light that KO is trying to do. Fevertree do not have bottlers and KO is selling all of them becoming like fevertree but in bigger.
Not considering dimensions, KO wants to be like fevertree and it says much.
:)

[sogoesit] 23/1/2018 08:52

Product is water, flavours, CO2, bottles, cans, packaging. All outsourced, and sourced locally. There is no tariff on IP to my knowledge.
Management run a specifically “asset light” business model referred to in their announcements.
AIMV

[villarich] 23/1/2018 08:37

Honest answer is I don't know. You've got me thinking though so will do some digging today. The way round the tariffs is as Panic says, to make it in the US rather than export it. The US question seems central to the takeover chatter. I agree with Panic the US is tough to get into, especially under the Trump regime. Growth in current markets will plateau eventually and they'll need to hit the US to continue that trend. Getting bought out my a major conglomerate is one way to do that.

[panic investor] 23/1/2018 08:28

I would have thought the US product would be made over there - give somebody the ingredients and let them get on with it - just like over here - just my thoughts Tough market to get into though

[bamboo2] 23/1/2018 08:26

Villa, there has certainly been volatility after previous updates.

Probably a silly question. But in the light of the Trumps new America First policy, is there a concern about the potential for tariffs, or is the US product made in the US?

[villarich] 23/1/2018 08:19

Haven't the last couple of updates caused the share price to tank?If there's no mention of a takeover in tomorrow's update, or a significant upgrade in expectations, then this could fall tomorrow too. This is based on the view that the recent takeover speculation is priced in, therefore any absence of news will result in a drop back to previous levels.

[wetdream] 22/1/2018 23:40

Co. Website says trading update 24th Jan.
Direction of share price post-update will depend on how much takeover speculation is include already.
In the past, FEVR sp's shot up after update. But it's jumped early this time, so may do the opposite on Wed.
All imho.;-)

[christh] 22/1/2018 22:14

Devalpha
Is everyone assuming there's a trading update on Wednesday because that was the date last year or have I missed that this is actually confirmed?

check the website, its there in the financial calendar

[monnow] 22/1/2018 21:50

I will be very disappointed if there is a takover bid at circa £28, the company has excellent growth prospects going forward, and I would prefer the company is allowed to grow and mature, I think it could be a wonderful dividend stock in time. Very short term views on here by a significant minority.