Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[bamboo2] 20/1/2018 16:28

DD, I don't know where you get your ideas from.

[discodave4] 20/1/2018 15:04

No probs bamboo, just found it ironic that you pity anybody that doesn't use charts but clearly stated you bought in yesterday purely on the back of a rumour.........that's exactly what you posted, nothing to do with charting!.No offence intended, just saying it as it is.Good LuckDD

[bamboo2] 20/1/2018 14:39

DD, Cheers, I only bought back the few hundred or so I sold earlier in the day. [but may average in some more if the chance arises]

I punt FEVR on a regular basis, hence the thread and all the charts. As you know I am not keen on buy and hold.

Sogo, agree about the Breakaway Gaps. There have been some partial fills further back in the chart, but all have held.

[sogoesit] 20/1/2018 14:01

Well, that's a challenge for bamboo!
The single candle with overly extended wicks must be a challenge for anyone not to mention throwing in a "gap"! We now have 2300 to 2570 as a range to trade around... a lot of room for "punting" imv.

However, this stock does re-rate, without gap fillings, every now and again albeit that I think this one has been initiated by take-out rumour (which I personally don't believe).
Next week is going to be interesting whichever way you look at it!
My guess is to the upside so I've cashed-up ready to go....
Good luck

[discodave4] 20/1/2018 13:07

Retrospective charting to fit what is clearly a pure punt!......good luck :)

[bamboo2] 20/1/2018 11:39

DD4, :)

What's changed?
19/1/2018 PM Intraday Falling Wedge with up-break
EOD Breakaway gap support zone 2222-2292.9

Potential chart patterns are INVH&S, or Bowl/Cup types, tp's ranging from 2500-2700, at first glance. Will look at chart later. Cheers!

[discodave4] 19/1/2018 19:19

"Hoping for positive press coverage at the weekend."Where on the chart did it tell you that?.........:)

[bamboo2] 19/1/2018 16:37

Cheers, ccr. I'm doing okay.... but don't always implement my trades in a very orderly way, averaging in and out!

Thankfully it's all in an isa, so don't need to do any tax accounting.

[ccr1958] 19/1/2018 16:33

Bamboo ,shame you just didn’t hold, this rise has been on the cards imo. The press coverage obviously confirmed what we already knew . Still I respect your strategy . Ccr

[bamboo2] 19/1/2018 16:24

Bought back in this pm.
Hoping for positive press coverage at the weekend.

[ccr1958] 19/1/2018 16:00

Yes ,all the liars/shorters/doubters got slaughtered here today and a lot more to go before next week. This will fly again next week imo. All positive!!

[wetdream] 19/1/2018 15:51

Well, British Bulls certainly got it right this time!

[3rd eye] 19/1/2018 15:47

May be a counter bidder coming in anyway. So £28 will look conservative then. And as you say results wed and at last results............

"Given the strong performance in the period to date, the Board anticipates that the results for the full year ending 31 December 2017 will be materially ahead of current market expectations."

[christh] 19/1/2018 15:44

Drinks giants Diageo and Pernod Ricard were also rumoured to be in the hunt for the company as a perfect tonic to their alcoholic drinks ranges.


Wow!!!!!!!!!!

A big fight coming along , who's going to offer the highest bid!

[christh] 19/1/2018 15:42

orissander
there you go 3rd eye has found the link.

[christh] 19/1/2018 15:35

3rd eye
good,that's me holding to £30, but lets see what Unilever offers.
£28 might not be enough , so they will have to raise it to £30 per share.

So hold tight and buy more.

Remember Wednesday with the trading statement, this will rocket to £28

[3rd eye] 19/1/2018 15:26

More here from broker Morgan Stanley.......

With high growth potential and attractive returns, we see
Fever-Tree as a unique opportunity in European Staples. Our
channel checking and proprietary industry model suggest the
premium mixers market could triple in the next 5 years with
Fever-Tree well placed to capitalise on this growth.

Fever-Tree's performance to date has been impressive. The company effectively
created the premium mixers category, giving consumers more choice and a higher
quality product, with better cash margins for the on-trade and a high rate of
sales in the retail channel. Drawing on our extensive channel checking, we expect
the premiumisation of mixers to continue and see Fever-Tree as well placed to
capitalise on this growth despite increased competition.

The penetration of premium mixers is currently 9% of the total mixers market
versus 33% for premium spirits, the closest proxy for mixers. Our industry model
assumes further penetration of premium mixers, driving a ~20% CAGR 2017-25
across Fever-Tree's core markets. This growth underpins our forecasts for 23%
revenue CAGR, 20% EBITDA CAGR and 20% EPS CAGR between FY17-20

Fever-Tree employs an asset light business model. It does not own its
manufacturing and relies on third parties for distribution. The group thus has
impressive returns on invested capital, which we estimate to grow sustainably
going forward from 43% in FY16 to 63% by FY20, while FCF should double.

We think the growth potential for Fever-Tree is underappreciated (particularly
by sell-side consensus), and we view Fever-Tree's asset light, high returns
business model favourably. We set our £30.00 price target based on our DCF
methodology, with the risk reward skewed to the upside, in our view. Increased
competition or a slower penetration of premium mixer than we are currently
expecting are key risks to our rating and price target.

[christh] 19/1/2018 15:15

3rd eye
well done, good research.

[microscope] 19/1/2018 14:39

Small cans on easyjet flights too. £1.50 for.... not very much!

[sogoesit] 19/1/2018 14:38

It’s the power of compound growth!
At 70% growth paying a PEG of 1.00 gets you to £47+ in a year.

[henryatkin] 19/1/2018 14:37

Re post 1667, my Tesco had shelves packed full of cans & bottles so no issue with canning imo.