Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[panic investor] 05/11/2017 19:05

Loads of crystal balls here today then !

[ny boy] 05/11/2017 18:55

Sorry but a one hit wonder stock that is being exposed horribly, can see this sinking to 1000p over the next 6 months.

[orissander] 05/11/2017 18:52

We have no sign of a bear market so at least this is a no worry.

I forecast an increasing growth because we are entering usa and china. Even small % in these markets means a lot.

[topvest] 05/11/2017 18:23

Great company Fevertree certainly is. P/E of 52 and market cap of £2bn doesn't bode well for the short term though. No room for any disappointment. Either a trading slowdown or bear market and it will be 50 percent lower.

[christh] 05/11/2017 17:50

Simple.....
Elementary mr Investor.

A retracement same as it was £19 and dropped to £16 and then went to £25.

I have a feeling this is the same pattern, so as IC said hold your nerve and BUY more
on weakness.
I do expect to climb up back to £22 and by Xmas up to £30 or close.
Fevertree products are in great demand, well after sought,sales are high, capacity doubled to meet demand, exports are booming.
So take a hint about the future share price.
A trading update may be forthcoming although the results may be delayed to account for the Xmas period, the period that will boost sales.
The year ends in 31 December, so will have the results in late January.
If the earnings come around £180m or more then will see the price rocket.

[orissander] 05/11/2017 16:21

I am all in in this Stock.
Feels like KO in the early times.

[bamboo2] 05/11/2017 10:15

Sogo, I averaged down late last week then sold my holding at approx. b/e on Friday afternoon. Since the price looked like it was going to close up, I couldn't be sure of the direction of potential turn on Monday[if any!] gla

[devalpha] 05/11/2017 10:00

It's going to be very interesting to watch how FT respond to this. I suspect TW & CR will be relishing the challenge. I can't see how the standard Schweppes brand can possibly go anywhere from here with the focus on the new premium range. Anyone have any idea how the new Schweppes premium mixers are priced v standard Schweppes & FT?

[martywidget] 05/11/2017 08:54

Steptoes Yard3 Nov '17 - 13:10 - 1237 of 1239 1 0
As I stated yesterday Schweppes recent surge in publicity is a rebrand of the same old taste. They haven't changed the product !


Schweppes enters next chapter of its 234 year history with biggest ever GB brand investment
Wednesday 04 October, 2017
Schweppes Classic unveils new skittle-inspired bottle and fresh brand design
New naturally flavoured premium mixer range Schweppes 1783, launching in November
Supported by a £6.6million integrated marketing campaign

[sogoesit] 04/11/2017 14:47

The real problem for Schhh ....it is that Fever has found a way to bottle this song in their drinks... or least-wise when I open one, especially Ginger Ale:



;-)

[orissander] 04/11/2017 12:13

Schweppes standard tonic has only an aestethic overhaul. So no worries.

The premium 1783 tonics that i tried are good but not at par to fever-tree.

I think that people feel that schweppes rebranded all their products to fight other tonic brands but if Fever-tree never existed, schweppes would be the same bad tonic it is always been.

[martywidget] 04/11/2017 10:04

On the new Schweppes 1783 mixers:

Just a selection from past week.

Some of the team are at the @SchweppesGB 1783 launch in Bristol today
30 Oct 2017


Fascinating insight @SchweppesGB #1783 launch #arbikie #fieldtobottle #ultimatemixer


Talking all things #arbikie & @SchweppesGB #1783 range #fieldtobottle #gin #vodka #schweppes #tradeshow #glasgow #hampden #happymonday



DYOR, etc.

[sogoesit] 04/11/2017 08:47

Morning wetdream ;-)
You pose, in my view, an interesting intellectual question about the stock market.
Some say the trick of investing, or investing at the right price, is to assess what the market expectation is and to trade off that. I.e. Not to be swayed or rooted in your own expectations. That then implies that there will come a time when news, or someone with influence, might change that expectation and the investor needs to gauge quickly whether that new “expectation”, if you will, will take hold in the market generally. Recent examples, as we are aware, is the “rogue” broking house that queried BOO’s capacity to grow profitably and not suffer “execution risk” and our very own RBC’s querying of “sustainable” high growth for FEVR.
Of course, another strategy is to guess the market’s perception and expectation and see if there is any arbitrage in taking a different view.

Another issue I think you raise is the question of historical continuity in expectation management. We know that, since flotation in 2014, FEVR have issued a Trading update every early November. The continuity argument says that there will be another in the coming days. However, Nicolas Nassim Taleb, he of The Black Swan, warns us that we can be fooled by what he calls an assumption of “linearityR21;. Recent examples of this are, in the political arena, of course Brexit and Trump. So, maybe there won’t be a Trading update until January 2018 as logged on the company’s website. However, some of us are trading off that arbitrage of will there, won’t there. RBC, I think, is one of them (as it’s a regular occurrence, either in good faith, or for manipulative or marketing reasons for analysts to attempt to be both ahead of the curve... and right).
[However, always beware the “This time it’s different” argument!]

So where can we fix ourselves in what we know as facts?
The news issued to the market, on 25 July, carried Warrillow’s Statement as follows:
“We continue to invest and improve our infrastructure, relationships with key suppliers and customers as well as adding to our senior team. The strength of our brand and first mover advantage means we are well positioned as the opportunity for premium mixers continues to gather momentum across our key markets.

Given the strong performance in the first half of the year, the Board anticipates that the outcome for the full year will be materially ahead of its expectations."

But... do we know what the Board’s expectations are and have they changed in the intervening 6 months?
Has competition come to to take a bite out of the Board’s expectations and the market, and market share, being generated?
The best upside phrase in that I can see is “gather momentum”. This implies not just continuing growth but accelerating growth. But am I right?
Etc. Etc.

What we need, in the current environment, imv to resolve these questions is a Statement! Preferably one before January 2018.
If there isn’t one in November my view is that the status quo prevails. But am I right and what does the market think?
That’s not to say that the market won’t inject doubt to test investors stomachs for gain or pain!

May your Luck go with you! To misquote a well known comedian!

[wetdream] 03/11/2017 22:31

Sogoesit,
Thanks. But doesn't that create over-expectation amongst shareholders?
In the past, trading updates have been versus 'market expectations', or 'board expectations'. What would they be in the current situation? Particularly since they always seem to exceed them!
Just seems to me that in that climate, almost any statement (or perhaps worse, NO statement)may be viewed as 'disappointing' causing short-termers to bail and push the share price down.
The 'problems' (or not....) of a successful company.;-)

[little minx] 03/11/2017 13:18

Had lunch out Wednesday and ordered a gin and said I assume it's Fevertree? The reply was "what else would it be?" Schweppes have sat on their laurels slightly too long and it will take ages for them to regain their lost ground imho.

[steptoes yard] 03/11/2017 13:10

As I stated yesterday Schweppes recent surge in publicity is a rebrand of the same old taste. They haven't changed the product !

[jch18] 03/11/2017 12:30

Last year trading update 7th November. Have not checked website. No figures were given last year, so just expect expetation and any info on new sales.

[shanklin] 03/11/2017 11:52

Are Schweppes just doing more promotion, which in isolation seems largely pointless, or also upgrading their product range to compete realistically with Fevertree's offer?

[orissander] 03/11/2017 11:41

Today is the first day of FOMO, the famous "fear of missing out".
Who sold yesterday will regret after the trading update or if we do not have news this month, for sure after next earnings report.

[sogoesit] 03/11/2017 11:27

nowhere. On this thread we were basing it on conjecture given that since float it has made a statement first Monday in November each year.
Who knows, this year could be an exception.