Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[bamboo2] 17/11/2016 07:45

Thread with chart here if needed

[sogoesit] 16/11/2016 17:17

Hi bamboo:
On past record there should be a Pre-Close Statement towards end of January 2017 (22nd last year).
Then the preliminary results would follow end March 2017 (23rd last year).

[bamboo2] 16/11/2016 17:10

Sogo, thanks for the reply.

It's definately better trading with the dominant trend. I have been in and out of fevr twice before. Needless to say, I would probably have made more money with a buy and hold than trying to trade. Any idea when the next update is due? I'd guess xmas is the best time for sales.

I hope the price is subdued tomorrow/Friday, and I can start buying. I'll let you know!

[sogoesit] 16/11/2016 15:46

Thanks your feed-back bamboo2.

Ah yes, I didn't see the Flag formation so clearly on my chart. Understood now.

This stock usually surprises to the upside. On a guesstimate of next year's earnings (2017) of around 32p the one year upside for me is between £12 and £16. But I see you are shorter term than that and brokers' forecasts for this year (2016) give 21p or thereabouts.

Indeed, over the last few months, Blackrock have been lending out quite frequently on this stock. Before the last Trading Update they lent out just under 1 million. So, as you say, someone not quite on the right side of history with this one ;-)

Of course, shorting will pressure the stock to the downside but then, as we've seen, the share price "pops" on news.

Good luck with your trade!

[bamboo2] 16/11/2016 11:00

Hi Sogo, thanks for the comments.

I'm considering trading the flag, assuming an up breakout. This chart has a number of open breakaway gaps. I am assuming that the recent breakaway gap will remain open and act as support or it will become the stop out for the trade.

Tp is 1138 for an upbreak, so it is a worthwhile trade in % terms. Tp is based on a retrace low of approx 1039 [50% 0f the flagpole].

The prior Symetrical Triangle has its apex on Friday, and this often indicates a price turn. On this basis, I am hoping for a weak day tomorrow.

I notice Blackrock has lent out some shares, makes me wonder if the borrower has done their homework. :-0

[sogoesit] 16/11/2016 10:23

These "small-cap" growth shares (low volume) are difficult to analyse in TA.

Is 1050p a bowl forming prior to further lift-off at next Trading Update?
Does short term downtrend from new high end round-about 975/980p?
Will there be a "gap-fill", below 975p?

The MACD is bullish.

On these questions downside looks like 975/980p (where there's volume) and upside is 1150p+

My simplistic analysis of future from the past!

[alcoholtradebuyer] 14/11/2016 20:16

Tipped on shares mag

[bossman1978] 14/11/2016 17:06

Many thanks for the help

[sogoesit] 14/11/2016 08:53

"Fever-Tree now represents an 11% value share within the UK retail mixer category, approaching the 16.5% proposed as the target value share benchmark by EY for the entire premium segment in their 2014 study. Whilst it would now appear that this 16.5% value share target is conservative given the continued rise in the premiumisation of spirits, it is also reasonable to expect the exceptional growth rate in UK Off-Trade achieved over the last 18 months to remain strong but to naturally settle to lower levels."

That's the UK. Last count there were a further 195 nations in the world.... ;-)

That's from Warrillow here (always a good place to start research!):



My guess is they plan to market throughout the UK in the On-Trade and Off-Trade and the RoW and to sell by stuffing all these various flavours of carbonated water into bottles, of different sizes, some embossed, and cans at a premium price to the likes of Coca Cola and Schweppes while warding off niche players like Fentimans etc.

Note the word "guess'. I DO NOT "KNOW" any of this stuff!!

DYOR

[bossman1978] 13/11/2016 19:57

Does anyone know what future growth the company hopes to obtain and how they hope to achieve it?

[sogoesit] 09/11/2016 16:08

£11 is the new £10... I think I'll buy a few Colas. The Fever-Tree ones at 170p not that cheap stuff at 99p. ;-)

Just to celebrate!

[alcoholtradebuyer] 09/11/2016 13:56

Strong support given todays volatility. We all need a drink after that!

[alcoholtradebuyer] 08/11/2016 13:00

Nice. Hot sector imo. Also in STCK, looks about to breakout, DGE bouncing, DIS low cap growth stock (chairman ex-diageo)

[mr hangman] 08/11/2016 12:44

1.2Billion you can't be serious

[alcoholtradebuyer] 07/11/2016 15:52

Looks like te start of another leg up. Good sector to be in for sure.

[hybrasil] 07/11/2016 10:52

Thank you both for your reply. I will go and do the homework on those shares. I am up 400% on my fevertree and will probably sell 20% or so at results time.

[terry topper] 07/11/2016 10:42

Sogoesit
These are Cenkos's new figures - they were at 18.9p before today's announcement.

[sogoesit] 07/11/2016 10:28

Many thanks hybrasil. Will check it out.
Only have 2 high growth companies and they are FEVR and BOO although MCRO has done well over last 6 years.

terry topper: I think consensus is EPS of 19 to 20p. So, if that is consensus and there is a "material beat", let's say 35% to be conservative, that makes EPS of 25 to 27p.

[terry topper] 07/11/2016 10:26

Cheers hybrasil - will have a look at that one.

Another one that I think might be a good long term growth stock is Autins Group(AUTG)- a recent IPO - supplies noise and vibration dampening products to the auto sector.
I have made a lot of money out of AB Dynamics (ABDP) which was a tiny company but proved that, if you have the right offering, size is no barrier to doing business with the global automotive sector. (I think ABDP still has a long way to go as well.)

Anyway back on topic Cenkos has new forecasts out for FEVR for 2016:
T/O £93.8m
PTP £31.2m
EPS 21.5p
I suspect that these will be well beaten come the actual results.

[hybrasil] 07/11/2016 10:10

If you would like another fevertree type share try dpp. Its new growth phase has been very under the radar. It has attracted virtually no press or similar comment. I made over 32 times my money in the original dominos. I lost money in the switz venture but this one in my opinion looks like a runner.

[sogoesit] 07/11/2016 09:59

I'm not sure about a sell strategy to leave it to a bid.
I've had one or two high growth companies in my investment life being taken out "early" (early meaning I hadn't had the opportunity to get all the profit before someone else took it out of my hands).
The problem is that, once taken out, it is very difficult, imv, to find other equally or better opportunities and the danger is you pick a dud and lose money.
This one's only been going about 2 years; so I would like to see at least another 3 years of opportunity for me in it before they do a trade sale.
As you say, terry topper, I hope management will judge that timing in the best interests of shareholders of which they are a part.

[terry topper] 07/11/2016 09:26

Broadwood
I want a bid at some point because I want the sell decision to be taken out of my hands!
I have enough faith in the founders to believe that they will sell when the time is right.

[alcoholtradebuyer] 07/11/2016 09:07

Intrested to see the multiple offered at least. Management havnt put a foot wrong yet

[broadwood] 07/11/2016 08:48

Why would you want a bid?