Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[sogoesit] 14/9/2016 13:08

Ahhhh... back to the 980's ... "fair market value"?

[sogoesit] 09/9/2016 17:55

Nasty, no support 'til 900 then a long way to go.
September usually a bad month imv.

[sogoesit] 07/9/2016 13:58

Exactly, TT, well put.
I have 20p for this year's eps and 32p for next year's; not far off yours.
The question in my mind is what P/E will be paid by investors; less than the growth rate or about the same as the growth rate?
The P/E being paid for this year's earnings is currently 50 imv. If they are buying next year's forecast earnings now then the P/E they are paying is about 31. Not an unreasonable P/E if growth next year turns out to be above 40% at current margins.
As said, I'm a buyer, at this price for next year's earnings. Accumulator would be a better description as this is already 7% of my portfolio.
Put another way for me it's a buy at or below £10 for a 50% upside in 18-24 months.

(Anyway the re-stock of FT Cola in Sainsbury today was half-sold at £1.70/500ml. Why would that be if Coca Cola can be bought for less than £1?).

[terry topper] 07/9/2016 09:24

If you believe that the growth rate will remain high then there is little reason why you would not continue to buy (or buy for the first time).
The market consensus assumes a massive fall in the rate of sales growth. The consensus is for around £85m of sales in the current year.
H1 sales were £40.6m (+69% on prior year) meaning that the consensus is assuming sales of £44.4m in H2 or growth of only 26%. If you believe that the growth rate will fall that sharply then clearly it's a sell but if you take a reasonable view that growth will slow but not fall off a cliff then this share has a good bit further to go. Remember margins also rose significantly in H1.
FWIW I reckon in the current year FEVR will do PTP of around £30m with eps at around 21p (up around 80% on prior year). A further reduction in sales growth to 40% the following year would still see eps well north of 30p.
These are completely my own figures and may well turn out to be over optimistic but they are perfectly plausible and arguably justify holding/buying at this level.

[mr hangman] 06/9/2016 13:34

Who on earth is still buying into this

[sogoesit] 06/9/2016 13:15

Found it, some 3 miles down the road; only few bottles left.
In Sainsbury they place it, along with other FEVR drinks and Schhhh, with the alcohol section so it doesn't compete at all with Fenimans or those type of drinks which in this particular Sainsbury are 3 rows away.

Must say the kola is good. I drink it plain with a squeeze of lime or lemon and ice. Great!
Apad, I get you on the rum and coke! My experience with Cuba Libre is nil: unfortunately when I worked in Cuba it was awash with rum but there was no coke (US boycott)! Instead we drank mojitos... equally good if not better. Rum was dirt cheap.

Since it's a new range I like I added on the dip this morning... of course pro-rata the other ranges ;-) !!

[apad] 02/9/2016 16:17

I would reckon the Cola is aimed at the US market, where Rum and Coke is popular - I'm told :-)
apad

[sogoesit] 02/9/2016 15:48

Thanks Apad, I bought in to BOO at 81p.
FEVR in a bit of a lull but looking resilient and possibly bullish again.
Am curious to see when investors start buying next year's earnings and what P/E they put on them.

However, must say, the recent announcement of the Cola has not led to its appearance anywhere in my area. I shall have to go further afield to get a taste of what it's like.

[martywidget] 01/9/2016 21:34

[chart now deleted}

[martywidget] 01/9/2016 15:14

..Giles Hargreave, manager of the Marlborough UK Micro Cap Growth fund..

...Fever-Tree, the upmarket tonic water firm, is perhaps the best of all. It came to the market 18 months ago at 134p and today is trading at £10. It grew by 70pc last year, and while it may not manage that this year it will be a damn sight more than the 20pc forecasts...

...I see no reason to sell the best performers, except Fever-Tree, where we have taken a bit of profit off the top...

[terry topper] 28/8/2016 14:47

Stock lending possibly?

[shepc] 28/8/2016 14:35

Anyone understand what's with Blackrock, below 5%, then above, then......? Thanks

[bonio10000] 22/8/2016 09:16

Fair play - add in brands like Tyrrells crisps and it is amazing the "brands" we can create and flog abroad to the rest of the world.

Beats working down mines for a living and you can just keep churning them out and selling them off.

[sogoesit] 15/8/2016 13:41

So the £10 is close or thereabouts.
If we buy next year's earnings:
Assume 60% EPS growth on 20p gives 32p and award it a 48 P/E (PEG of 0.8) gives a target for next year of £15.36.
That's without any buy-out premium if that comes about.
Still a buy for next year's earnings imv.

[bigwavedave] 15/8/2016 12:40

Defies gravity, this share. Well done all holders. Watched it from 400-ish, always expecting it to fall back but that never happened. Great product.

[sogoesit] 10/8/2016 23:39

Sure, top, I'm not saying I'm a buyer here but it's probably fully valued only til end of year.
Say the EPS doesn't quite double this year, making 20p, and we award it a p/e of 50; that says £10.
Awarding it a p/e of 50, even tho revenue growth is running in excess of that at 60-70% means the PEG is less than 1.
I also noted the warning that growth rates are expected to "quieten down" so a lower p/e might be appropriate for next year.
That said there may be people who will push the share price into buying next year's earnings. Would they be unreasonable to do that, albeit at a lower multiple? Would the multiple halve to 25 in that case?

[topvest] 10/8/2016 21:18

I agree with you. It's a fabulous company. However, the share price is ridiculous. Buying at this level would be a serious error. You will need to get off before something nasty happens....it's priced at perfection and more...that always ends badly. Indeed they have already warned that UK growth can't continue at the rate it has been which stands to reason as tonic water can only sell so much.

[sogoesit] 10/8/2016 08:39

Paying a dividend shows it converts profits into cash which inspires a lot of confidence.
Now on a "double" in about a year for capital growth ;-)

[topvest] 09/8/2016 18:44

Dividend doubling still means a yield of less than 1%.

[juzzer100] 09/8/2016 18:24

There are inferior copycats starting to appear. Bottle Green have launched a light tonic water in remarkably similar colours to FT Naturally Light. The difference is that Bottle Green has they cloy-y taste as they don't use natural fructose when FT do. This success with Fever Tree is down to the quality of the product rather than branding. Long may it last!

[cottlet] 09/8/2016 18:15

Did I read somewhere something about the dividend doubling?
or was I dreaming?