Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[villarich] 12/10/2018 13:03

Yeah I bought back in today. 2500 shares. I've made about £2k so far. Not bad for a Morning's work don't you think? I'll sell them again at any hint of trouble to protect my profits. So you don't need to worry about my trading and portfolio, I have my strategies and they are working out fine so far thanks. I'm sorry but I'm not stupid enough to make predictions. I make calculated trades with defined entry and exit points. You might be right, the American markets may crash next week but you can't be certain. If you had more conviction you'd be shorting but you don't have the bottle. Now run along little troll lol lol lol pmsl

[allstar4eva] 12/10/2018 12:58

They may well go short again on Monday but won't want to risk holding over the weekend imo

[allstar4eva] 12/10/2018 12:53

Shorters have had a good week here. They'll want to close out today.

[juzzer100] 12/10/2018 12:37

Love your style llama! I have a SIPP full of FEVR shares and I too have a cupboard full of Fevertree bottles!I truly see Fevertree as a game changing product (note I say product, not brand). I may be wrong, but as you say you only live once!

[123trev] 12/10/2018 12:35

Chris,that fall was just the start and smacks of a desperate run for the exits forget what you think about the share and it’s all about the money now in a very nervous and long overdue corrective phase in the markets and this stock will suffer greatly because of its false value.

[villarich] 12/10/2018 12:33

It's 'Do' Fever Tree drinks.

[llama1978] 12/10/2018 12:26

Things will get turbulent towards the November announcement I’m sure. Chance to make some money for the risk takers. Not me, I’m scared of my own shadow and totally out of my comfort zone with half my life savings in this, haha. Oh well, it’s only money. I still have a roof over my head and some decent premium gins in the cupboard and plenty of fever tree in the fridge...

[hvs] 12/10/2018 12:04

Does FEVER TREE drinks go well with CAKE ????

[christh] 12/10/2018 12:02

Hi trev,
in my opinion, we have turned the corner.
The director purchase of £262k was the catalyst of the fall.
It was madness this bashing on good, healthy,growth and savvy stock.

With the Xmas looming and the festive period started already , the price will
zoom back up to £39 and pending a trading update we should climb to £43-£45

The USA trading will show how the 29 states are taking on the Fevertree experience with their Gin,Tequila or Whisky or whatever they drink in their locality.

What is amazing about this company is that very forwarding,developping new mixers, new flavours and trying to expand globally on new grounds.
Apart from that the company is well managed,well run and have a steady vision for the future.

I would recommend you Buy some for long term and you'll remember me.

[doctor 69] 12/10/2018 12:01

Also back in Expect USA to bounce and these back up to £35

[123trev] 12/10/2018 11:26

Suckers trap hope villa and Dave are buying shed loads at these bargain prices,pmsl,lots.

[christh] 12/10/2018 10:52

hopefully going back to £36 next week

[christh] 12/10/2018 10:48

Phil Oakley was in sharescope....and left for more money to IC

[martywidget] 12/10/2018 09:56

AIM Growth Business of the Year Award

Winner: Fevertree Drinks plc




The winner of the @AIM_Awards AIM Growth Business of the Year is @FeverTreeMixers. Congratulations! #AIMAwards2018




The winner of the AIM Growth Business of the Year Award is @FeverTreeMixers! Huge congratulations to you all #AIMAwards2018

[villarich] 12/10/2018 08:03

Back in with a few

[villarich] 12/10/2018 07:24

Thanks for your informative contribution. Sorry to split hairs though, FEVR outsource their bottling.

[sogoesit] 12/10/2018 04:48

These are the levels of importance for Slater's Rules:
Mandatory
1. 4 out of 5 year record positive GR
2. Low PEG
3. Optimistic Statement
4. Strong Financials
5. Competitive Advantage

Important
6. Something new
7. Small market capitalisation
8. Relative strength

Desireable
9. Dividend yield
10. Reasonable asset position
11. Management stake in company (Skin in the game)


PS. Found the article on cash flow by Phil Oakley in IC on 10 October but unable to copy and paste from digital version.
Will try another way in due course.

[sogoesit] 12/10/2018 03:37

The Zulu Principle citeria for those interested is as follows.

1.A positive growth rate in earnings per share for at least four of the last five years
2.A low PEG factor
3.The Chairman’s statement must be optimistic
4.Stong liquidity, low borrowing and a high cash flow
5.Competitive advantage
6.Something new (the company has something special or unique about it)
7.A small market capitalisation
8.High relative strength compared with the rest of the shares in the sector
9.A dividend yield
10.A reasonable asset position
11.The management should own shares in the company

I am younger than the experience of 3rd eye of course, a minor "junior" no less, (I made my first real stock market money in the Dot.com "Bubble" up all hours of the night in the UK trading the Nasdaq market at the time!) but I note that the criteria are those for a Buy decision and that FEVR has only about 4 years' history on the market to date.
BTW I would argue that it is false to say that the PEG can be "accurate" as the denominator is a view on the future and mathematically there are no units when dividing the numerator by the denominator.

Also Slater did not advocate that all the rules should be fulfilled but parcelled them into Mandatory, Important and Desireable. I post these categories later.

However, most on here, currently invested, appear to me to have been or are looking for reasoning to Reduce or Hold as have made the Buy decision some time in the past (prematurely according to Slater? ;-)!!). I would argue that this is quite a different decision process and depends on such things as the general market conditions, investors' term view, exposure, risk concentration, portfolio balance, net worth (risk tolerance) etc. etc. and, in such circumstances it isn't possible to be prescriptive individually. Everyone has to work it out for themselves. All I can give are my views, relatively immature (always learning) and... lucky (I agree with Taleb)!
[The Japanese have a saying "Mistakes are the pearls of wisdom"! Or "If you're right, do you know why? If you're wrong you probably do know why!"].

Of course, one criterion for this decision is "Would I buy this stock here at this price and under these conditions"? This might give a lead as to reducing or continuing to hold.
The next issue is timing and this is intertwined with term view. I think a whole book could be written about this issue! My experience is that timing can be visceral and chance dependent or... lucky. (see Taleb on Fat Tony. As it happens Taleb has written several books on or around this issue as an ex-Options Trader!). Most people (the overall majority?) are bad timers, including professionals! So this issue requires close management.

But, to my mind, this company does represent a rare gem and probably meets most of Jim Slater's criteria albeit given the "short" history. The one issue with FEVR, alluded to in the comment about receivables made earlier in the thread, is also cash conversion. (FEVR's has been in the range of 70%-75% in last 4 years). I recall glancing at an article in the IC a day or so ago on this, from which these figures are quoted, and will dig it up as it probably should be published by now.

Anyway, as is well documented on this thread, and to answer the question "Would I buy this stock here and under these conditions?" I am a buyer(actually a "re-investor" as I was lucky to time a short term partial exit recently) on a PEG at or about 1.00 below £32 with a 6-12 month term view to £36.
I am an existing holder on a term view of 5 years plus from here.

Caveat emptor as always, treat the market with respect and doubt and beware those who tell you what the future holds.
Slater also said buy stocks during recessions, when prices are low. Some say a recession is on the horizon so, in this case, more opportunities may arise!

Good luck or Be lucky ;-)!

[3rd eye] 12/10/2018 01:04

Villarich,

I prefer the peg. But it's all a gamble on the future. I think fevr is over-sold is all. Very few companies with global reach. The successful tend to get bigger.

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yep but you cant use the PEG accurately until you have at least 5 years of historic growth.

Check out the late great Jim Slaters theory in his ZULU Principle book.

Anyway the DOW as had a relief rally and FEVR may join it tomorrow but dont hold your breath in the coming weeks.

Good Luck To All

[discodave4] 11/10/2018 21:53

Watcha Villa,Many thanks for that. Never like to buy back above what I sold them for so probably will foolishly buy back before £28, then get trapped on any pullback! Lol.My pf is nearly 60% cash as of yesterday so busy going through my watchlist, this is the first sustained market fall I've experienced (only started 6 years ago), whilst its not pleasant watching your hard work disintegrate, it has to happen and all I can do is learn from it, and make the most of the opportunities it has provided.Good luck.Bamboo - thanks too, much appreciated.DD

[rochdae] 11/10/2018 21:46

3rd eye,

I disagree. If you recall the ftse at the time of the dot com bubble comprised some 30% of tech companies. BT, telewest and marconi come to mind but there were many others. That sector was slaughtered. The non-tech sector wasn't that much affected. Some stocks went up.

Villarich,

I prefer the peg. But it's all a gamble on the future. I think fevr is over-sold is all. Very few companies with global reach. The successful tend to get bigger.