£10 looks like decent support. Missed getting in under that, see how today goes. |
hxxps://www.mi-3.com.au/18-10-2021/scientific-proof-going-dark-kills-brands-all-stats-marketers-need-defend-their-budgets |
The Pears soap story is a real lesson, folks.
At one point they dominated the market.
So, they decided that everyone knew about them and therefore they did not need to continue advertising and slashed the marketing spend to the bone.
Big mistake. Hero to Zero.
I read about it as a management case-study back in the day. Don't remember the relevant dates, but I do remember that it was surprisingly quick.
apad |
Apparently a bar of soap lasts six times longer than the equivalent liquid soap.Apologies for off topic, it's Apads fault lol (just kidding Apad)Https://www.beecleansoaps.co.uk/blogs/blogs/how-long-do-soap-bars-last#:~:text=Liquid%20soap%20will%20last%20for,the%20equivalent%20in%20liquid%20soap. |
Pears do liquid soaps and shower gels now as well as bar soaps - which IMO still have a market and could actually work out as a cheaper alternative to liquid soaps, cost of living and all that! - can't substantiate that but would imagine a soap bar lasts longer and works out cheaper?.Liquid soap circa £0.96/ 100mlSoap bar circa £0.93/ 100g |
Bar soap is virtually dead - go look in your local supermarket!
More like basic mobile phones and smartphones |
Pears - very interesting history. Think their 19th century marketing would not do too badly in the 21st century!.Think their decline (although still going) was possibly more to do with being bought by Unilever and then stupid EU directives. |
Based on the long-term graph £10 looks like a base.
It doesn't really matter if you are a long-term investor.
It is all about maintaining brand value, which doesn't show on the balance sheet.
Pears Soap is a wonderfull case study about what happens if you don't work hard at promoting the brand.
apad |
Agree, quality businesses Will £10 hold? |
Hi CTThanks for the info. Not surprising given cost of living that UK customers have gone to cheaper brands. But what high end retailer hasn't seen the same impact?. Even Diageo has been struggling, who'd have thought that - not me as hold them (sad face).The taste between say Schweppes and Fevertree ginger beer is night and day. I still buy their ginger beer as a stand-alone drink. It seems clear that the UK now has limited growth, hence the focus on the US.If this dips below £10 then I'm very tempted to tuck away and see how it goes over the next couple of years. |
AIM so IHT funds in this. I guess.
I hear what has been said but remember I sell the stuff.
It’s very price sensitive and sells on promo but much slower at full retail.
At 30 p for a can of Schp we have noticed people moving back against the 85/90p per bottle.
The gin market is very mature now.
Prices went up 10% last year and U.K. sales did not increase LFL.
Tiger |
MAJOR SHAREHOLDING
This information was last updated on 22 September 2023.
NAME %
Lindsell Train Investment Mgt 15.35
Capital Group 8.44
Fundsmith 7.63
Tim Warillow 4.78
Charles Rolls 4.36
Baillie Gifford 3.50
So, about 45% held by those with >3% |
They are improving EBITDA margin to 15%. Pre pandemic and since listing this margin was 30%-35%. Massive scope for operational gearing to kick in. |
In these times of highly fluctuating costs, how many years of revenue buys the company is a good metric.
FEVR is about 3.5 years.
Given the potential for growth this is not so expensive.
Amusingly Bioventix is 19 years 😊
apad |
Hi CT
Diageo sales to mk cap 26%
Coco Cola sales to mk cap 17%
EBITDA is meaningless IMO , their pat margin is c 9%, in 2017 it was 27%. Yes they’ve lost margin due to costs but my contention is that will possibly recover (driven by the new glass / plant in US and as input costs reduce overall due to falling inflation). Plus they’ve said they will start to increase prices to improve margins.
UK may be flat but last quarter was still ahead of expectations and it’s now growing as a brand in the US. Number one for tonic and ginger beer last year is some testament to its potential, the US is about 5 times the market opportunity compared to the UK.
We each have different thoughts about what the future may look like, appreciate your view but it is just an opinion, as is mine. But only time will tell which views were more accurate. |
bigger balls than me.
sales are 25% of market cap.
EBITDA is £30m 1/40th of market value.
Sales falling in the uk in real terms.
Margin being given away to crack the usa.
Only possible growth is USA and maybe 2 years left then what?
Its tightly held with some 80% with big holders.
Far better out there. IN MY OPINION.
Tiger |
Thanks, don't hold at the moment.Good luck |
Couldn't agree more. Good post disc0.
apad |
Some very large buys over the past few months.Held these years ago and did very well (lucky), never understood the high rating either but went with PEG, which I notice is below 1 again. Forecast eps for FY24 is on a par with 2017 during their significant growth phase, share price then went from £11 to £21......whilst UK growth isn't anywhere near going to be the same as then, the US looks very much like it could be!.Sometimes perceived value on PE alone misses the potential IMO. With revenues at all time highs and still growing despite the macros, getting back to profitability margins pre pandemic and the skys the limit!, just check out their op margins and ROCE pre 2020. |
Large buy today by a man in the know. |
ha - some round trip today! |
surprised its held up?
not at all
tiger |
All blood-red this morning except Quartix and Equals.
apad |
JPMorgan cuts Fevertree Drinks price target to 1,090 (1,150) pence - 'neutral' |
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