Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[villarich] 08/10/2018 14:36

The recent drop certainly makes a takeover more attractive. Someone would have had to pay well over £40 a couple of weeks ago. Now they might get it in the mid 30s!

[soundbuy] 08/10/2018 14:18

Though I doubt the takeover angle here I've taken a horse race level punt here......

Since recent rumours the sell off seems a tad overdone .......... timing odd too even given wider mkts.....cynic in me says easy to come fwd now and offer a takeout at a 20% odd premium.....still would be at a hefty price but could see the likes of PepsiCo putting real traction into US growth....

[villarich] 08/10/2018 14:08

Under £30 wow!

[villarich] 08/10/2018 14:07

They'll announce growth data at the next update. Also this is Neilson's data, not Fever Tree. The original post did say the two are correlated though.Also can you provide a link to the news that said US sales had gone from 15% to 50% since June?

[soundbuy] 08/10/2018 14:00

Re UK Nielsen data.............Scroll to 11.57 to put the above in context

[christh] 08/10/2018 13:56

juzzer100
can you post the link,please.

If there was a slowing in growth the company will come and say so.

However the company specifically said"results comfortably ahead of expectations"
Also since June we have the USA factor pushing sales higher from 15% to 50% or higher.

[juzzer100] 08/10/2018 13:50

UK Nielsen data published on 5 October points to a slowdown in Fever Tree growth from 75.2% growth in the 4W to 12/08/18 to 37.7% in the 4W to 09/09/18. Unless I am missing something this is comparing two four week periods in July and August versus the same last year. Lots of variables in there including a prolonged heatwave this July!

[christh] 08/10/2018 13:43

Berenberg note synopsis - Broker target set to £42.50

Fevertree Drinks (FEVR LN) - Why the American dream can become reality
Synopsis:
* The UK has remained the biggest growth driver for Fevertree in 2018 thus far. However, with the company having just taken over direct management of its US operations, attention now turns there for the next phase of expansion. To gain a better understanding of the key US market dynamics and Fevertree's potential in the country we have spoken to several industry experts, including former directors at Southern Glazer's, Darden Restaurants and Target as well as a current manager at The One Group Hospitality. These conversations, in conjunction with our analysis, have given us confidence that Fevertree can grow considerably in the next few years and gain significant market share, over time. As such, we still feel there is further for the stock to go, so raise our price target to GBp4,250.
* Supportive market: For Fevertree to have a chance of succeeding in the US, the market needs to accommodate greater premium mixer penetration. We believe it will do so because
1) premium spirits are growing quickly,
2) the on-trade channel is beginning to use bottled mixers more widely and some minor changes could increase their prevalence significantly, and
3) premium mixers have already made substantial progress in the off-trade channel but still have considerable growth potential ahead.
* Positioning itself to dominate: In our view, Fevertree is making the right moves to extend its lead as the largest US premium mixer player and take share from non-premium drinks. It has built a team of over 30 people to work with its North America CEO, Charles Gibb, who ran Belvedere Vodka for nine years; it continues to develop products to suit the US market, including the recently-launched citrus tonic water; and it is working on further co-promotions with top US brands across all key spirits categories.


* Game-changing on-trade partnership: At its interim results, Fevertree announced it had signed an agreement for Southern Glazer's, the largest US wine and spirits distributor, to become its exclusive distribution partner in the on-trade channel across 29 states.
This "strategic partnership" will allow Fevertree products to be rolled out in national programmes with the distributor's spirits portfolio, which includes the brands of all major spirits companies. As such, the agreement, which is the first of its kind that Southern Glazer's has signed with a soft drinks business, could cause momentum in the on-trade channel to build quickly.
* Valuation reasonable given market potential: Fevertree trades on 61.4x 2019E P/E on our base-case estimates. While the stock appears expensive on near-term multiples, the company is by far the largest player in a market that could triple by 2022 and quadruple by 2025.
Thus, if it continues to dominate, earnings could increase dramatically from here.

[christh] 08/10/2018 13:41

phowdo 8 Oct '18 - 12:58 - 3743 of 3746
Fevertree has major US growth opportunity, says Jefferies


22 June 2018

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Jefferies see the US as the largest growth opportunity for 'posh mixers' maker Fevertree.
Given premiumisation trends in spirits culture, Jefferies' proprietary US bartender survey found conditions were "in place" for Fevertree to push itself to the top of the premium mixers category.

"We would acknowledge that success in the UK is no guarantee of success in driving the premium mixers category in the US. Unlike the UK, where FEVR growth coincided with (or helped to stimulate?) the renaissance in high-end gin, drivers of the US will be both tonic and non-tonic led," Jefferies said.

While Jefferies noted that this won't happen overnight, success in the US could lead to a doubling of Fevertree's base, leading the broker to increase its price target on the AIM-listed firm from 3,000p to 4,000p.

Jefferies said there was scope for earnings per share momentum given the warmer than usual weather experienced throughout the second quarter, something the broker believes the market had partly priced in, but noted that if Fevertree was able to even partially emulate its UK success in the US, the firm would be well worth an incremental 3,000p a share.

In addition to the new price target, the broker reiterated its 'buy' rating on Fevertree shares.

[shaunie1] 08/10/2018 13:40

hiya phowdo , looked on the nielsen website can't see the article and did a word search and fever tree didn't produce, can you let me know how / where you viewed the article/report , cheers - as sounds interesting and provides an answer towards slippage we have seen.....apart from the wise guys taking money off the table obvs...

[villarich] 08/10/2018 13:38

Good link and thanks for sharing? So does this data just look at UK growth?

[villarich] 08/10/2018 13:05

Yeah I was too pmsl lol lol

[phowdo] 08/10/2018 12:58

Mentioned on FTs markets live

Here's Jefferies.
What's New? UK Nielsen data published on 5 October points to a slowdown in Fever Tree growth from 75.2% growth in the 4W to 12/08/18 to 37.7% in the 4W to 09/09/18. Note that the UK accounts for c52% of group sales. See p.2 for further details
Is Nielsen a reliable indicator of growth? According to Nielsen, 2H16 Fever-Tree growth in the UK was 126% vs Fever-Tree's reported 124%. 1H17 growth per Nielsen was 139% vs Fever-Tree's reported 113% and 2H17 Nielsen 119% vs the company reporting 87%. For 1H18, UK growth per Nielsen was 86% vs Fever Tree's reported 73%. Therefore, while off-trade is only c.50% of Fever- Tree's UK sales, Nielsen data is not a bad indicator of growth in the UK.

[villarich] 08/10/2018 12:47

As expected DD. You knew he'd be back. Probably off down the pub now to celebrate with his 'friends'"Guys guys, you'll never guess what. Fever Tree is nearly at £30! I told you eh lol lol pmsl!? I really showed them lot on the message boards! ........Guys?"I wouldn't mind if he'd actually declared he was short but it's all just for attention. Poor guy. To be honest I'd probably do the same if I looked like a turnip with eyes.

[villarich] 08/10/2018 12:43

Lol, pmsl, lol, pmsl. How old are you? 14? Lol

[discodave4] 08/10/2018 12:42

Oh dear our troll appears to be back, gloating no doubt, sad.

[123trev] 08/10/2018 12:40

Lol,like he said not bothered at all really not bothered you do seem kinda bothered though,pmsl you really are a smuck Villa.

[villarich] 08/10/2018 12:33

I'm as calm as a Hindu cow mate. I just don't like pathetic little lurkers like you. Well done on saying this would go to £30. Did you go short? Nah of course you didn't. You only threw it out there because you have nothing better to do than try and sound clever on an internet message board, while the rest of us are making actual money. Don't you have some skank to bore down at the pub? Oh what a life you lead.