Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[villarich] 24/4/2018 08:50

We're hitting short term resistance of 27.70, if we can get above this then we'll keep the short term up trend from 25.80 in place

[discodave4] 22/4/2018 12:26

They should get their PR team to ramp up on the benefits of drinking G&T this summer!hTTps://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/entertainment/drinking-gin-and-tonic-could-help-reduce-hay-fever-symptoms-1-472836DD

[ccr1958] 22/4/2018 09:30

Does the 2750 Rolls placing to mates have any relevance or just a false ramp ?

[bamboo2] 22/4/2018 09:11

Sogo, Cheers for that. Interesting to see the Rolls connection. Agree about the lower rising trendline bounce.

So the Feb 14th Breakaway Gap [2328] has no substance. I would guess that following a break of the H&S neckline and 50SMA, this will be the initial target for shorters.

2300 has good historical support, and the 200SMA is currently [approx. 2280] rising and approaching this level [to add to historical support].

The Jan 19th Breakaway Gap [currently measures 2270-2222] was caused by the Unilever speculation. Takeover potential still exists? I think so.

edit, chart added. Numerous potential turns.

[sogoesit] 21/4/2018 19:27

14 February "Gap up":
The share price bounced off the lower uptrend channel line on my chart.
There was no specific news but, on 23 March, Rolls sold down.

The 14 February Gap-up kicked-off a consistent "ramp up" of the share price to 23 March.
It is my guess that on 13/14 Feb the share price was ramped-up for this... or just coincidence (?).
Seen it before on other stocks.

[discodave4] 21/4/2018 16:36

AGM 17th May, usually give a trading update.

[finbarot] 21/4/2018 13:29

Any ideas when the trading update is?
Thanks

[bamboo2] 21/4/2018 13:20

I have an idea that there is kudos to be had from being 'the one' who calls the top in successful companies, such as FEVR, share price.

Basically it becomes a publicity stunt. Hence the ra-ra from Norris. If it fails, it is quietly forgotten, if it succeeds then they will gain crowing rights. Cawkwell attempted it and seemingly failed in Jan '18.

The reality for us PI's is that it can create some excellent buying opportunities.

We know that there are numerous Breakaway gaps further down the chart. These are news or rns driven, and assuming the part of the story contained within these events or news holds true, then these are the places to draw support zones.

I am unsure about the cause of the opening gap on 14 Feb at approx. 2328. Anyone remember?

The next support zone down is 2270-2222

There is an unconfirmed H&S with a min tp approx. 2390

[discodave4] 21/4/2018 11:31

ErricGuess you are referring to Barry Norris short position. A view that many have stated time and time again.......and been completely wrong, so go for it yourself if you also believe.....but not one thought about USA!.hTTp://citywire.co.uk/money/norris-shorts-fever-tree-says-shares-could-halve/a1112544Good luck.DD

[orissander] 21/4/2018 09:47

His track record is awful, dunno why shorting this name when you can short many struggling companies...
The best season for fevertree is starting now, and the u.s. expansion is getting steam, he could really lose big money with the short.

[ccr1958] 21/4/2018 08:36

I have seen the argument for the ‘shorters ‘ based on full shelves in super Mercados, what a crock ! The fact that the SMs can now keep up with demand is a bullish sign to me .... just saying !

[martywidget] 21/4/2018 05:50

Norris shorts Fever-Tree, says shares could halve
Fund manager Barry Norris bets against mixer drinks maker whose shares have risen more than 16-fold in less than four years.
Apr 20, 2018 at 14:06

[discodave4] 20/4/2018 22:14

ErricJust saying.......what a pathetic attempt at deramping a stock!.If you believe it's true, that the share price will halve, then put your money where your mouth is and join the shorters (zero % shorting 0.5% or greater), good luck with that my friend!.DD

[erric] 20/4/2018 19:37

Just saying.
Not statistically sound as it’s only one supermarket ......... but
For twelve months now my local Morrison’s supermarket has struggled to keep the shelves stocked with fever tree tonic and has quite often been out of stock.
Now, for the second week running at peak time on Friday evening the shelves are full which means that production and deliveries have now caught up with demand.
Maybe, just maybe, some of the experts who are shorting the stock are not far from the truth that the brand has now lost its exclusivity and can’t possibly continue to grow sales at the rates of previous years. If I still had my GNI CFD account I think I would join the shorters who are talking about a halving of the current share price

[anderson3] 20/4/2018 14:21

Summer has come early, G&Ts all round!

[discodave4] 18/4/2018 08:26

Ex div tomorrow (7.64p).

[villarich] 17/4/2018 16:31

Sorry I understand that now! Thanks for clarifying.

[orissander] 17/4/2018 16:02

Based on sogoesit toughts. I agree for a revenue growth of 50% in line and a little lower than before, it’s unreal that forecasted growth on many internet sites are of about 10/15%. Just that.

[sogoesit] 17/4/2018 15:59

Unfortunately its not possible/easy to compare our Fever with other competitors.
Dr "Pepper Sniffle Snaffle" don't break down their subsidiary brands' (Schweppes & Canada Dry) revenue and Fentimans is a private company.

However, according to Companies House, Fentimans' 2016 turnover was £24,141,167; 2015 Turnover was £19,377,186 and 2014 was £15,341,582 thus giving growth rates of 24.5% and 26.3%.
So Fentimans is not really a competitor, merely a small niche player by the looks of it, albeit growing reasonably and consistently well. Similar gross margins to FEVR (33% in 2016).

By comparison the UK "Soft Drinks" Market was valued at 16.53 bn euros (say £15 bn) in 2016 and non-cola carbonated drinks were about 12% of that making £1.80 bn.

[villarich] 17/4/2018 15:35

Sorry orissander but you can't just say someone's detailed analysis is wrong and not provide any counter arguments or analysis.Can you say why overall growth will be 50% please? Based on what?

[villarich] 17/4/2018 15:33

Thanks for this analysis. Really good and justifies the initial view. On a 60x multiple were looking at a good rise over the course of the year.

[orissander] 17/4/2018 14:21

As you can see forecasts are of 204£ revenue for 2018, really low.

hxxp://www.4-traders.com/FEVERTREE-DRINKS-PLC-18470250/financials/

I agree with your calculations, forecasted growth is wrong and the stock price will rise when the forecast will be changed for a 50% revenue growth. (and not 10/15%).

[sogoesit] 17/4/2018 12:40

Some numbers:

Looking at historical growth rates since 2014, between UK, USA, Europe & RoW, the UK has been the outstanding performer with growth as follows:
2014/'15: 83.7%
2015/'16: 118.4%
2016/'17: 96.4%
The next biggest market has been Europe, with 26.29% share last year and the following historical growth rates:
2014/'15: 66.4%
2015/'16: 39.15%
2016/'17: 43.8%
Followed by the USA with 17.36% share and the following historical growth rates:
2014/'15: 65.21%
2015/'16: 55.39%
2016/'17: 38.86%

The RoW has been pretty inconsistent at the following:
2014/'15: 49.93%
2015/'16: 88.41%
2016/'17: 57.09%

If we plug some forecast regional growth rates of:
UK: 65%
Europe: 40%
USA: 40%
RoW: 50%
into deducing gross revenue, with operating profit at 35% margin and net earnings with a 20% tax rate for 2018 we get:
63.26p EPS on overall revenue growth of 53% (£261million).
NB not far off the back-of-envelope figures of 60p we have been bandying about to date.

If anyone wants me to plug other regional growth scenarios into this worksheet let me know.

[villarich] 17/4/2018 08:32

ccr - re Brewdog, if you're not a drinker of craft beer then they do a gateway beer called Indie Pale Ale. Try that one first, or their citrus IPAs - Elvis Juice and Clockwork Tangerine. Both are excellent summer drinks.If I'm doing you a disservice and you're a craft beer drinker, then get stuck into Jackhammer or Native Son - double IPAs of the 8 to 9% variety!