Ferrexpo Share Discussion Threads

[alphahunter] 13/1/2016 23:31

Like these in Arch Coal?

[hpcg] 13/1/2016 23:26

Yes, lenders have had such a good time in the basic materials market recently that they will be very understanding.

[alphahunter] 13/1/2016 23:24

Well, I watch the price for iron ore and when available for pellets on a daily basis. FXPO share price is benchmarked against a dozen other Iron ore producers and a couple of Ukranian industrials, and lastly, I've set-up a Ukraine and a Ferrexpo google alert. What I don't have access to is the behind-the-scene negociations about the refinancing of the debt. I'm expecting some sort of screw the minority shareholders solution.
Yet the short position can still be shafted.
3rd of Feb is an important date I believe.

[dasv] 13/1/2016 17:42

prob China300/DOW/S&P futures

bounce was due to defence of offshore yuan by China (Squeezing shorts by killing liquidity with HIBOR to 60%+).

Then today some supposedly better than expected export and import numbers. But these look, after analysis - very fudged/faked.

Watch crude - it's back to $30. Not a time to be holding bulk commodity plays with a lot of debt imo.

[alphahunter] 13/1/2016 17:14

TBH, you could have asked yourself the same question yesterday, when the price went from 20p to 22p in a matter of minutes just before the close. Tonight, it took more than half an hour to complete the round trip.

[npp62] 13/1/2016 16:31

WTF happened here today?... In the last couple of hours!

[mreasygoing] 07/1/2016 16:27

Holding up well considering the mining sector is being mullered.

[dasv] 07/1/2016 13:00

Alpha - I think for small cap PI's 2015 was an excellent year but for larger fund managers it's been much harder. E.g. market breadth in S&P500 has been very narrow. Remember nevsky's had an EM focus and that was dreadful in 2015. If you are relying on EM co's and EM gov's for data and the data's been omitted or juiced then the strategy no longer works. I think Nevsky's letter is v. prescient esp re: China.

[alphahunter] 07/1/2016 10:14

Where have the pre-Christmas rampers gone?

[alphahunter] 07/1/2016 03:13

2015 has been a good year for active/stock picking fund managers. None of this risk-on risk-off nonesense of previous years beloved by traders, when everything went up and down in synch. I don't understand what these two guys are rumbling about.

[alphahunter] 07/1/2016 02:34

I believe that there may be a staff-related reason for the bounce - but we'll see if this is more than a short-term reprieve at these low iron ore prices. And some noise on the internet that the volume of iron ore produced in Ukraine has recently gone into reverse (no producer named, but FXPO is the largest) - which would be consistent with the first remark. Lastly, the premium for pellet has further shrunk.

[itchycrack] 06/1/2016 03:34

"its all in the price" - classic - never laughed so hard! :-)

[dasv] 05/1/2016 14:13

see post 3158

[gucci] 05/1/2016 13:53

looks good for a run up soon

[pbutterworth1] 05/1/2016 11:31

Itchycrack - Yawn - its all in the price, and you forgot to mention all those long term productive assets. The only way is up...... like share price today, in a difficult market...

[itchycrack] 04/1/2016 20:58

Global recession this year, ISM contracting fast! China collapsing!

[dasv] 04/1/2016 13:37

bit of a bounce in iron ore

[dasv] 23/12/2015 15:44

alpha - the market is a Keynesian beauty contest. You have to judge the judges. I thought a bounce off the lows with inexperienced punters piling in is virtually inevitable, but doesn't change the eventual outcome for the co.

Ex Afren lawyer appointed, debt renegotiation specialists hired, > 600m debt, cash gone missing, v. high gross leverage, break even on cash flow at best probably, $20m going out the door per month and $90m left? Debt holders will prob. own the company if the government doesn't nationalize.

[alphahunter] 23/12/2015 15:38

LOL. I'm short, but well in the money.

What we've got gentlemen, is the traditional year-end dogs' rally. Arcelor Mittal trades at 75% discount to book value, and they are not going under. A slight pick-up in iron ore prices, Boasteel not investing in a new iron ore mine, it makes sense that AM's share price flies off.

But that's when fundamentals don't matter for a few days may be a week or two, only momentum. Financially-challenged oil miners liers are doing the the same.

This is when the rampers that you've never heard of are drawn in and would post 4, 6, 10 times a day on a penny stock with 10 bagger price targets. They have to shout loudly to get enough people on the dance floor, because they know that the music will stop suddenly when a piece of fundamental news eventually hits the screen. They just want to make sure that there will be enough safe seats left empty by the late comers.

By the way, none of them are "blue", i.e. tracable by ADVFN.

Havng said that, hats off to mreasygoing, who's done well so far.

Enjoy your trades.

[mreasygoing] 23/12/2015 14:49

Volume over the past few sessions tells a lot. Share price bottomed ?

[mreasygoing] 23/12/2015 14:22

Shorters times up.

[dasv] 23/12/2015 13:13

hpcg - there's 2 anyway.