Falkland O&G Share Discussion Threads

[agnabeya] 19/1/2015 12:28

Haven't seen CFK in ages. Seems like internal strife is bad as ever.

[agnabeya] 19/1/2015 12:28

Haven't seen CFK in ages. Seems like internal strife is bad as ever.

[trulyscrumptious] 19/1/2015 11:46

Markfrankie. UC is the same person as Chrisoil Twitter - 5 posts above his one here and also calls himself Falklands, Shelloilman and probably a lot of other things as well and likes to berate everyone who does not follow his, usually fatal, advice.

[mariopeter] 19/1/2015 08:58

This will help:




Please dont think they are going to stop a long term project because of a short term oil price. There is still potentially vast reserves undiscovered where that rig is going.

[markfrankie] 18/1/2015 23:29

UC do you have no concerns regarding Saudi's aprox~10 year stock pile? They 'could' keep prices down for a long time. Are they doing this to hit big usa fracking? and maybe small explorers? Or are they throwing their opec weight around because they can afford to?
I like the look of Fogl and my guess is they could be in a prime geological position !?! UC Has Drill rig been paid for or on order?

[undervalued companies] 18/1/2015 19:32

Debate silly invention drilling been confirmed i know when rig set to leave traders !

All you do is use a telephone I know that's hard for you modern day tech people but try it some time speak to rkh, pmo or fogl.

[markfrankie] 18/1/2015 17:45

fraser038 think I might do a 'little punt' at end of next week then see if drilling goes ahead to make my real investment. good luck everyone

[tongosti] 16/1/2015 22:01

Then don't jump in you both!

[trulyscrumptious] 16/1/2015 21:03

I agree with you Fraser.

[fraser038] 16/1/2015 18:05

Lots of uncertainty here. My gut says that the drill will go ahead. But my head says dont buy until its confirmed.

[chrisoil twitter] 16/1/2015 14:55

All this debate on PMO

Just read the article considering i phoned RKH up regarding sea lion development.

I also contacted PMO its all positive. Doing an interesting article on shareprophets this weekend regarding the situation.

read here

No delays as interims and drill campaign on schedule.

[agnabeya] 16/1/2015 14:03

hxxp://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/oldshipid:368831/oldmmsi:308463000/olddate:lastknown


Truly,
You can play the old 'track the rig' game here.

If you don't have time to - don't worry.
Plenty of others will ;D

[granny7] 16/1/2015 12:59

The Oil dock in Stanley is now in operation and has had it's first ship there with gear for the next round of drilling...guess they wouldn't have bothered sending it if they were going to pull out!!

[emilio] 16/1/2015 11:27

shanieboy can you read ?

[shanieboy01] 16/1/2015 10:56

Anyone think that they will put this campaign on hold in next few weeks? Are they contractually obliged to send a rig down while its non economic?

[trulyscrumptious] 16/1/2015 09:39

Thanks for that emilio, appreciated.

[emilio] 16/1/2015 09:38

if PMO going ahead Fogl will also go ahead ! This is from the PMO site from 14. 01.

[trulyscrumptious] 16/1/2015 09:11

How do you know FOGL are definitely going ahead, they have said nothing recently?

[thorpematt] 16/1/2015 08:50

Yep, it's a summary of points isn't it and it leaves out some context which is always the case to some extent with newspaper summaries. In depth articles giving discussion are often more contextual and provide better balance.

Here's some context:-
TD was saying that a PERSISTENT DROP IN CRUDE TO BELOW $50 mean mean no sanction of development projects. That's not therefore a spike down on the 5year chart.

He also said that the long-term calcs, which both he and I have mentioned many
time before (when prices were are <$100/bbl) were a good bet i his view.

NEARLY EVERY SINGLE oil fields in the world either under development, recently discovered or under production is NOT commercial at $50/bbl.

As far as FOGL goes (and this is the REAL important context for us). The exploration is going to happen, is fully funded and is likely to get less expensive. Exploration is the phase we're in and commerciality calcs at this stage aren't the MOST important factor here (right now).

-------------

Regarding my second point. Low prices in any produced commodity leads to a chain of events.

That chain starts with pressure on highly indebted, high cost suppliers and acts like Darwinism upon the the population.

Production is squeezed, supply becomes tight...

The price recovers...
and then it goes high...
then too high...

and then we get back to where we were last year, with governments and consumers complaining and windfall taxes being levied and cash cows being milked...

until we gat overr-supply

and the price starts to fall (again).

long term we're probably somewhere between $40 - $150/ bbl but NOBODY really knows for sure do they?

[agnabeya] 16/1/2015 06:12

I see the times is being it's usual self - got yhis from the other BB from Mars.
How did analysts get an $80 figure for the FI commerciality? Typical Times.

00:29
The Times -
Falklands discovery on hold until crude rises above $50
Tim Webb, The Times
January 15 2015

Premier Oil will decide by the end of the year whether to go ahead with the Falklands project

The Falkland Islands’ first commercial oil discovery will be delayed until crude prices start to recover.

Premier Oil said yesterday that it would not sanction the $2 billion Sea Lion project as long as prices remained below $50 a barrel. The FTSE 250 company will decide by the end of the year whether to give Sea Lion the go-ahead after scaling back the project’s size.
Analysts estimate that Sea Lion, which would come on stream in 2019, needs oil to be at $80 a barrel oil to be economic.

Premier Oil also booked a $300 million impairment charge on its portfolio after the slump in oil prices over the past six months.

Tony Durrant, the company’s chief executive, said that a large part of the write-offs were against its operations in the North Sea, which have the highest costs of all the regions in which it operates. Its Balmoral field needs a $60-plus oil price to be economic.

Premier Oil is not planning any new exploration activity in the North Sea this year for the first time in a decade as hopes of making big discoveries diminish. Other countries were more attractive places to invest at present.

[agnabeya] 16/1/2015 06:09

No Truly - the oil revenue has been totally wasted on Westminster.
SNP looks on oil revenue as a bonus - not a necessity - to balance the budget.
The independence movement pre-dated the oil by a long chalk. :) (I'm not a nationalist - just commenting on what is being said here. Genetically speaking I'm Welsh and English :) )

This oil price will have been prepared for by the Big Boys like BP. The job losses they announced were already planed in the last 18 months - and were waiting for a dip in price like this to activate the cuts.
It's all politics - oil price included. None of these companies hasn't planned for this at some point.
I think it's impossible to predict the next oil price (rise or fall)- and when. Probably after the political goals (Russia and US Shale) have been reached.
The US seems to know the shale is a bubble and wants to be in a better economic position than Russia when that bubble bursts.

[trulyscrumptious] 15/1/2015 17:28

I bet the Scots are glad they voted to remain in the UK as oil revenue from the North Sea is predicted to fall from £7 billion to £1 billion. I'm half Scottish by the way so I love them. I would have expected some sort of news from FOGL but as usual, silence. Perhaps they are rethinking their strategy after all because many experts are saying oil will not rise above $60, or thereabouts, for at least 3 years and Fraser038 may be proved correct.

[thaaarg] 15/1/2015 16:25

Papers arrived yet Fawlty?