Falkland O&G Share Discussion Threads

[chrisoil twitter] 15/1/2015 15:49

FT mis quoted new article by me on shareprohets regarding this friday i think.

Anyway part 2 geo politics on oil and fogl benefit

see

[trulyscrumptious] 15/1/2015 14:50

This is not a political/military thread. This is about FOGL and the potential for oil.

[thewealthofsocrates] 15/1/2015 12:21

Hedge this by buying gold.

[thewealthofsocrates] 15/1/2015 12:15

Things heating up a bit!
More incentive to get rid of Kirchner now.

hxxp://au.ibtimes.com/articles/579080/20150114/ground-based-air-defence-missiles-uk-falklands.htm#.VLeuc5BFBDs

[thewealthofsocrates] 15/1/2015 12:09

On the political front there's good news...

[fraser038] 15/1/2015 11:37

hence why I said South basin..... double at least

[chrisoil twitter] 15/1/2015 09:22

$35 breakeven is the offical quote from PMO CEO Durrant quoted in recent Financial Times .

[fraser038] 15/1/2015 09:12

@Chrisoil.

please share how you come up with a $35 production cost for FOGL south Basin. I do not believe this to be true. I would double it.

We are not going anywhere until some news or systematic data comes out.

[shakudomaster] 15/1/2015 09:04

If you want to waste 5 minutes.

[chrisoil twitter] 15/1/2015 07:42

Throp interesting.

You can see my take on oil and fogl here

[agnabeya] 14/1/2015 22:36

hxxp://www.fig.gov.fk/minerals/

Pigeon2 - the links on this page might help you.

[agnabeya] 14/1/2015 21:16

Thorpematt,
Very true. But as a combined drilling campaign I'm just keeping 1998 in mind. :)

The usual geopolitical cure is to create demand by having another war. :(

Some interesting takes on the US shale bubble in that merco press article, I thought.

[thorpematt] 14/1/2015 20:27

Travls,
No it hasn't as yet no.

If and when it does there will be an RNS to say so and the shares will be suspended from the market also. You can subscribe to RNS so that you will be informed more quickly of any such events and therefore you won't need to log in here and ask.

I hope this is of help?

[thorpematt] 14/1/2015 20:21

Agna,

PMO are a bit secondary for FOGL right now IMO. But FWIW they have some interesting goings on. Debt is heavy (tho' structured quite well). Cashflow was good up until recently. Cap-ex upcoming is higher than you'd want. They're tied in heavy in NFB and as Tony Durant commented earlier in the week partners aren't available in this market, period.

So put Debt, weakened cash-flow,high cap-ex and no farm-out together and you have problems for future development funding. That won't effect the explo campaign for 2015 which is firm at 8 wells (4 x FI)

PMO beat analyst expectation on production but equally too they beat it on write-downs! Goldman went in heavy on PMO Monday with a slashing of price target. (Timing looked suspiciously insider).

So yes these problems for PMO will play a part when the NFB gets developed but the upcoming campaign goes ahead.

As far as FOGL,its funded for the campaign and has partners with much deeper pockets. Development depends therefore on future oil price only.

Where I like FOGL as a punt is that right now it's priced virtually for failure and so if it strikes then it could be sat with big assets at a low buy in point. - in essence it's risked assets against prospects drilled within next 12 months look good value.

So it's a gamble rather than an investment but one with mathematically favourable probabilities. Obviously I like the geology and believe it well mapped and understood now so I like the COS here too.

No oilers look that great right now. I'd go DGO if I had to - which I've said for while when pushed if I wanted an "investment". They basically have the reverse of the PMO issues.

As far as oil price is concerned I'd see $40 as likely for Brent short-term. There's one cure for low commodity prices... (insert the correct answer to that well know phrase here). So that will prevail in due course.

[mariopeter] 14/1/2015 19:57

Thanks Thorpe and Piston

[agnabeya] 14/1/2015 18:32

Thaarg, I think the drill will go ahead -
but I recall projects being ditched in 1998.
I'm keeping that in mind now just in case...GLA

[thaaarg] 14/1/2015 18:10

Errrr...I don't think so...

[chrisoil twitter] 14/1/2015 17:26

Frankly you really should read my new article on advfn financial news regarding the oil price and fogl

[agnabeya] 14/1/2015 16:56

Hope this doesn't affect anything.