Facilities By Adf Share Discussion Threads

[disc0dave45] 28/2/2023 12:04

Selling at a loss....bought Feb / March 22.Can't be very confident IMO.Thought I was filtered too!, ah well, good luck with your old boiler :)

[sarahbudd] 28/2/2023 11:11

I absolutely am.. and hold plenty but new boiler calls..

[disc0dave45] 28/2/2023 11:02

Thought you were "perfectly confident" in this share, but clearly not that confident.Sorry don't have L2, try asking the rampers about next door :)

[sarahbudd] 28/2/2023 10:29

Can anyone see L2 please... need to sell some but hoping for more than 59.25. TIA

[disc0dave45] 24/2/2023 12:13

Netflix cutting subs, desperate move to try and keep subscribers. To maintain their margins they will no doubt try and cut production costs, very competitive market and IMO Translux will be taking trade from ADF, it's already feeding through to the reduced profit margin per production of ADF.Https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64753499.amp

[nakedmolerat] 23/2/2023 15:22

its simple, the uk is the place to come and make tv and film, all skills here, studios and actors

[rivaldo] 21/2/2023 23:15

Here's a selection of three news stories from the last week as examples of the current investment boom in the creative industries.

Pinewood are to spend a whopping £800m expanding their studios to become the "biggest studio complex in the world" and create 8,000 jobs.

The group also said it would "inject £640m a year into the UK economy":



Canal+ are to spend €1bn on film over the next five years, including a number of English-language titles:



And Banijay UK are to invest £50m in focusing on "scripted, reality, premium documentaries and factual entertainment":

[disc0dave45] 21/2/2023 13:36

What cost of living crisis!......just the start:Https://www.cordbusters.co.uk/sky-price-increase-explained/

[rivaldo] 20/2/2023 12:03

New tip for ADF on i.i.i as a stock to buy and hold for the long term:



"Facilities by ADF
64p

ADF was the first AIM new admission of 2022 and it won the best newcomer at last year’s AIM awards. The company provides vehicles and services to the film and TV industry, and it is investing the £15 million raised from its stock market listing at 50p a share to grow the vehicle fleet.

Facilities by ADF has also acquired Location One, which also provides services to the TV and film industry. The initial cash payment is £4.5 million with a further £1.7 million of deferred consideration in shares. The other £2.7 million is dependent on achieving earnings targets over a three-year period.

Clients include Netflix, HBO and Disney. Investment in content for streaming platforms is leading to increasing demand for services, and visibility of work is good. Profit was lower in the first half, but the second half was much better. That is because there were more series with longer filming times, rather than short projects.

A strong order book underpins expectations for this financial year. Pre-tax profit is forecast to rise from £4.3 million to £6.6 million on a 50% increase in revenues to £47.6 million in 2023. The share price has risen following the recent trading statement and the prospective multiple is 10. The strong demand for content makes the shares attractive without the risks of direct investment in the content."

[ali47fish] 17/2/2023 14:42

sorry about the inadvertant duplicatio riv

[rivaldo] 17/2/2023 14:08

Er....I already answered that post above?! The answers are all in posts 681 onwards. It won't take long to read!

[ali47fish] 17/2/2023 13:40

the recent update was in line so i am surprised the share price has being inching higher- although this is progress as the situation before was not as good- any other explanation for this anyone? i wanted to add and hope i have not missed the boat by much!

[lennonsalive] 16/2/2023 18:36

Excellent close today. I can see this flying up to 100p

[rivaldo] 16/2/2023 18:20

If you read from post 681 onwards you'll understand why the share price has risen given the very good H2'22 results, the rosy outlook for this year and the low multiple based on the forecast 6.5p EPS.

[ali47fish] 16/2/2023 17:44

the recent update was in line so i am surprised the share price has being inching higher- although this is progress as the situation before was not as good- any other explanation for this anyone? i wanted to add and hope i have not missed the boat by much!

[toptomcat] 16/2/2023 15:54

Some nice buys coming in to close out the day

[rivaldo] 16/2/2023 12:14

Hi Adam. I'm sure 2022's H1/H2 balance was primarily due to the factors already outlined by ADF, i.e the H1 prevalence of productions which were both shorter in time frame and wider in location, thus less profitable, whereas H2 and early '23 had/have a preponderance of longer, more narrowly located and more profitable productions.

I do remember reading (perhaps in the prospectus from memory) that December is generally a quieter month for obvious reasons of weather and Xmas/New Year break. This last December also had absolutely terrible weather, which puts the excellent H2 performance in an even better light.

I've never seen a split of the 39 productions for 2021 (compared to 76 last year), but EBITDA was essentially evenly split for that year between H1/H2, which would suggest no great seasonality. Though of course these were Covid times, so not the greatest guide.

[masurenguy] 16/2/2023 09:40

There has been a 20% rise over the past 4 weeks and the current shareprice is now circa 25% above the IPO just over a year ago. If a 6.5p eps, recently forecasted by Cenkos, is achieved this year then the shareprice should move up into the 80p - 95p range.

[rivaldo] 15/2/2023 23:02

Good to see Paul Scott giving ADF the thumbs up on Stockopedia:

"Facilities by ADF - TU (in line) - Paul - GREEN - in line expectations update for FY 12/2022. Sounds perky about the outlook for 2023. Quite nice company I think."

"Full year trading update

Facilities by ADF, the leading provider of premium serviced production facilities to the UK film and high-end television industry, today provides an update on trading for the full year ended 31 December 2022 (“FY22″).

Strong trading delivering on all areas of growth strategy

Key points from today’s update -

FY 12/2022 results in line with market expectations.

Revenue up 13% to £31.4m

Adj EBITDA up 3% to £7.9m

The reason why increased revenues didn’t flow directly through to EBITDA is because (previously announced) smaller individual contracts meant more down-time as equipment had to be moved around between jobs. So this mix effect does show the flaw in the business model – gaps between jobs, which could get a lot worse the next time the industry has a recession (no sign of that at the moment though).

Cenkos (many thanks!) publishes an update note today, showing that the £7.9m EBITDA becomes £4.3m PBT. As it’s an equipment hire business, we cannot just ignore the depreciation charge.

Basic adj EPS is 4.6p, so the PER is 12.7x which seems reasonable to me.

Capex – it spent £8.9m enlarging the hire fleet in 2022, with similar spend expected in 2023. Which raises the obvious question as to whether this is value for money, given that the big capex barely moved the dial on EBITDA in 2022?

Expansion in the UK is continuing, more detail in the announcement. It sounds as if things are going well. There was previous talk about expanding into Europe through acquisitions, which I’m not at all keen on. Better to stick to its knitting in the UK, I reckon.

Outlook - we’re told several times that the order book is strong, but no figures are provided.

Cenkos is forecasting a big increase of 50% in revenues for FY 12/2023, and EPS rising from 4.6p (FY 12/2022) to 6.3p. This type of equipment hire business should probably be valued on a PER of about 12, so I make that a share price target of 76p, a useful 30% ahead of the current share price.

My opinion – I’ve always quite liked this share – it floated at a reasonable valuation, and raised fresh money for the business in its IPO (unlike so many companies which float so that a private equity backer can exit at a premium).

The UK seems to be a popular destination for big TV/film productions, so there seems to be plenty of work available for ADF, and it sounds upbeat about the future.

It’s a cyclical business, so at some stage there’s likely to be a downturn, hence why I wouldn’t over-pay for this type of share. But right now, it looks to be in a good spot, and the shares seem reasonably-priced, hence I have to give it a thumbs up as things currently stand."

[disc0dave45] 15/2/2023 14:15

Perhaps the premium saddos would like to explain why profit margins are down 11% per production yet they say that will now be the trend but their brokers reckons EBITDA will increase 55%?.They can also explain what their cash and liabilities will look like, how much interest on HP terms they will be paying, and how much additional depreciation will smash their operating profits?Enjoy the rise chaps :)

[gswredland] 15/2/2023 13:09

Thanks Rivaldo
Those two mentions in prominent papers probably responsible for continued rise today

[eezymunny] 15/2/2023 09:47

So does everyone agree that all the cash flow gets swallowed up by capex? And the fleet grows. And the revenues grow. And it's all fine until there's a downturn or more competition, whence there are reduced revenues, cash flow problems etc (potentially).

It just feels to me like a great way for content producers to offload capex and downturn risk onto a third party.

Might work out well. Might not.