Facilities By Adf Share Discussion Threads

[john09] 12/11/2023 21:50

Are you on crack?

[oldboy1] 09/11/2023 13:49

another SCSW recommendation coming good. Very nice to be see this upward movement. Lots small caps doing well at the moment

[qs99] 09/11/2023 09:09

great thanks both, glad to be on a board with you both on it!

Look forward to some decent share price appreciation and trust level heads can formalise the tentative agreement...DYOR

[rivaldo] 09/11/2023 09:04

Amazing how fast things change in a couple of days :o))

Well done Mas and other holders. Only a "tentative" deal at present, as still to be approved, and the schedules will take some time to normalise, but at least the way forward is now almost clear.

[masurenguy] 09/11/2023 08:55

Some upward momentum returning on the back of that strike settlement. I have waited patiently here for the Netflix password issue to be resolved and both the writers and actors strike to end. During that time the shareprice has held up reasonably well over such a negative period and this morning it is already up 10% and I'm almost back to breakeven. With the kickstart of new productions over the next few months ADF is now looking good value going forward ! 👍

[qs99] 09/11/2023 08:47

Thanks, looks really interesting again on the back of that DYOR

[masurenguy] 09/11/2023 07:58

Striking Actors and Hollywood Studios Agree to a Deal

The agreement all but ends one of the longest labor crises in the history of the entertainment industry. Union members still have to approve the deal. One of the longest labor crises in Hollywood history is finally coming to an end. SAG-AFTRA, the union representing tens of thousands of actors, reached a tentative deal for a new contract with entertainment companies on Wednesday, clearing the way for the $134 billion American movie and television business to swing back into motion.

[rivaldo] 07/11/2023 10:55

It's hard to understand how ADF's shares have held up so well. Today's news is that:

"Hollywood strike goes on as actors reject ‘last, best and final’ offer".

Holders will have had plenty of chances to exit with this H2's results certain to be extremely lacklustre, and the article below points to "dangerously thin" schedules for next year.

On the face of it ADF look very cheap on next year's forecasts, but surely those forecasts will have to be cut. And it's not as if ADF are exactly flush with cash, so their financing/borrowing position will be interesting.

In normal conditions ADF look a good company, but normal conditions seem unlikely for some time now:



"Hollywood studios and cinema chains are desperate to end the strike, which has stopped production and forced chief executives to delay major releases, leaving the 2024 film calendar dangerously thin"

[masurenguy] 19/10/2023 06:48

Netflix password crackdown expected to drive revenue acceleration in 3Q

Netflix Inc (NFLX) is expected to report growth on both the top and bottom lines when it hands down its third quarter financial results after the closing bell on Wednesday, October 18. The streaming service expects to report earnings per share for the quarter of $3.52, up from $3.10 in the same period last year. Wall Street analysts, however, expect Netflix to report EPS of $3.47. Both the company and analysts expect revenue of about $8.5 billion, which represents year-over-year growth of 7.5%.

[lennonsalive] 13/10/2023 11:52

Actors strike still ongoing as talks break down

[ali47fish] 09/10/2023 11:52

cum you should not be sharing wht the tip shhet says- you shoyuld knoe better

[cumbrian2] 09/10/2023 09:26

Was tipped at the weekend in SCSW. Expecting a number year next year with writers strike resolved and backlog of productions to catch up

[masurenguy] 09/10/2023 08:57

Interesting rise this morning based on a small trading volume - circa 70,000 shares - and no news!

[petes5] 28/9/2023 07:46

Not too sure what the big studios want here. Within a few years AI will be doing most of the writing. I think they are simply testing the water to see how hard they can push and it really depends on the support from the actors who cannot really be replaced. AI is out of the box and jobs like writing will go.

[ali47fish] 28/9/2023 07:26

you're right

[saurish] 28/9/2023 07:14

You're somewhat mistaken. Ex div date- 05/10/23. Payment date- 27/10/2023.

[ali47fish] 28/9/2023 07:07

dividend due yeterday not paid?

[lennonsalive] 25/9/2023 15:31

Actors still on strike still

[masurenguy] 25/9/2023 06:17

The Writers Guild of America reached a tentative deal with Hollywood studios, all but ending a strike that fed a TV and film production shutdown.
Sunday, September 24, 2023

Union leaders said that after Writers Guild board members approve of the deal, which could happen as soon as Tuesday, they will also vote whether to end the strike — even as the ratification vote among rank-and-file writers is underway.

[masurenguy] 23/9/2023 23:36

Hopes rise of a deal to end Hollywood’s long-running writers’ strike

Hopes of a settlement to end Hollywood’s long-running writers’ strike are building after reports that writers and studios may be nearing a deal. The Writers Guild of America (WGA) was locked in talks with the bosses of some of the nation’s largest companies last week in Los Angeles. No agreement was struck, but at 10pm on Friday the WGA issued a statement saying the parties would meet again to continue talks today. Philippa Childs, the head of the UK’s broadcasting union Bectu, said the news had provided “some hope” for her members, many of whom have been out of work as a result of the industrial action. An industry source said: “This is as hopeful as it’s felt for a while.” Variety, the Hollywood trade title, reported that the sides had moved “significantly closer” to ending their stalemate and suggested a “tentative deal” may be close.

Complete article:

[adamb1978] 18/9/2023 11:05

Thanks Rivaldo. Do you have their turnover forecast for FY24? 8.8p EPS looks aggressive to me, absent getting turnover into the £55m - £60m range.

H1 turnover was £22m...I guess if that grows 25%-40% and then double it for a full year, you get into that range.

Still on my watchlist - my main concern is around the cash generation

[nakedmolerat] 18/9/2023 10:52

the problem is ADF are giving no indication of the disruption that will be caused short term or how much of their work is effected

[rivaldo] 18/9/2023 10:07

Cavendish (aka Finncap) now forecast just 1.5p EPS this year, assuming that the writer and actor strikes aren't resolved until the end of the year.

Net debt is set to increase to £18.9m (from £11.7m last year).

They forecast 8.8p EPS next year assuming a return to normality.

I wonder if the return to shorter and presumably more geographically diverse work as noted by Cavendish - in order to "go after all available work" given the strikes - will cause transport costs to rise again as per last year. And of course interest rates are so much higher, though they may ameliorate at some point (maybe next year).

Whether to invest at present is obviously a gamble on whether the market will look forward to next year or whether the shares will drift on the more negative outlook for the next few months and in the prelim numbers for this year.

[petes5] 18/9/2023 07:22

Read recently that Disney were not releasing certain programs for tax purposes. I believe Spiderwick Chronicles were one. Programs are complete and all paid for but do not want to show revenue for it. My take on this is that they have programs in reserve and could sit out this screen actors strike for longer. Release the programs in a future tax year.Not ideal for ADF, however I am a holder and will continue to hold.

[adamb1978] 18/9/2023 07:05

Opex has ballooned. £3.6m in H2 FY22, £5.0m in H1 FY23 - can someone help me understand that? It means that operating profit is lower in H1 this year than H2 FY22.

Can someone remind me of seasonality in the business? Perhaps that explains it. I held until the very start of this year but sold in Jan.

Thanks