Evgen Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[kingalf] 16/1/2021 17:07

I would disagree with your targets Basso, we are due a big correction and would go as far as saying it will happen within the next 4 weeks. The correction will take the S&P below 3000.

[moneymunch] 15/1/2021 20:35

Get 'em on to SFX-01...FFS...GLA :-)

[moneymunch] 15/1/2021 20:33

James D Chalmers Retweeted

NIHR Research

@NIHRresearch

·

3h

BREAKING: The RECOVERY trial finds no overall benefit for convalescent plasma in moderately ill patients taking part. It has now closed recruitment to this treatment arm for all hospitalised patients. A huge thanks to everyone who took part & donated blood

[bumpa33] 15/1/2021 08:55

Brasso - let’s see, they look very aggressive targets to me but who the hell knows in this environment?! If they come about we’ll see VIX down in the teens, maybe single figures. If so, I’m going all in.

[moneymunch] 14/1/2021 14:24

More documented research which adds weight to SFX-01's chances for Covid/ARDS..Gla ;-)

14/1/21

Helixmith announces encouraging animal model efficacy data has been published in the Journal of Ethnopharmacology for their botanical therapeutic product for respiratory diseases. A clinical trial of 100 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 to begin soon in India.

.....

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a respiratory failure produced by uncontrolled excessive inflammation and oxidative stress in the lungs. The causes are diverse, including bacteria, viruses, and environmental chemicals. An acute lung injury mouse model with a high degree of pulmonary inflammation induced by a lipid polysaccharide (LPS) is one of the most frequently used animal models in ARDS studies. In the LPS-induced acute lung injury (ALI) model, lung damage progresses very rapidly and extensively. Effective treatment in this model may indicate the possibility of preventing or treating clinical symptoms in respiratory diseases such as that caused by SARS-CoV-2.

In the described study, the researchers used the LPS-induced ALI model and found that lung damage was significantly inhibited in mice treated with TADIOS. The effects appear to result from the control of excessive production of inflammatory and oxidative molecules such as TNF-alpha, IL-6, IL-1beta and ROS. The potential molecular mechanism underlying TADIOS' anti-inflammatory and anti-oxidative activities is control of the Nrf2-HO-1 pathway. Thus, rather than acting on SARS-CoV-2 itself, TADIOS may instead prevent or inhibit disease progression upon viral infection through a reduction of inflammatory and oxidative response.

[brasso3] 14/1/2021 14:15

Bumpa

We briefly mentioned this last week.

David Hunter
@DaveHcontrarian
·
15m
This market is on the verge of a surge upward, what I would call the true melt-up phase where the market goes vertical. I will be surprised if we don't reach my targets of S&P 4500, Nasdaq 15,000 & DJIA 36,000 this quarter and I'm pretty sure my targets are going to prove low.

[hodhasharon] 14/1/2021 13:58

@Nobby - STX, the time is now (as in today).

[moneymunch] 14/1/2021 12:23

"The hunt for effective therapies for solid tumors has heated up in early 2021 with a string of biotechs touting big investor checks and name-brand collaborations to chase those hard-to-treat lumps."

[on target] 14/1/2021 10:58

It's here euclid : and also in the header at the top of the thread.

[euclid5] 14/1/2021 10:48

do you have the web link to that interview please

[peanut100] 14/1/2021 10:13

Just watched the proactive interview with Huw again. 'Just received final top line data from another solid tumor that we are excited about, we haven't revealed it in full to the market yet but we are really exited, some of the best pre clinical data that we've seen in shrinking a very difficult to treat tumor and extending survival which is really very exciting and we're looking to validate that work and to see to what extent it translates into the clinic, we're making those plans now but it's really very exciting data' at the start of the interview 'a good reason why I joined actually having positive clinical data'

[moneymunch] 14/1/2021 08:00

Yet another SHP2 licensing deal, and along with the Solid Tumour space, two very hot oncology JV targets.....Gla ;-)


TOKYO, Japan; 13 January, 2021

Taiho Pharmaceutical Co, Ltd., (hereinafter Taiho) announces that it and Astex Pharmaceuticals (UK), (hereinafter Astex), both Otsuka group companies, have granted an exclusive license under their joint, small-molecule drug discovery program targeting SHP2 to Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, USA, known as MSD outside the United States and Canada (hereinafter MSD) through a subsidiary.

[moneymunch] 13/1/2021 18:50

What's laughable peanut is Finncap's idea of research in "Research Notes"...obviously very little research is carried out....Gl :-)

Ps the lack of valuation attributed by Finncap to SFX-01 Covid/ARDS has nothing to do with its chances of success.

[peanut100] 13/1/2021 18:34

Doubt he is allowed with so much going on that we're not privy to yet.

[peanut100] 13/1/2021 18:33

Finncap are broker to SNG and EVG. Think I'd be promoting a switch

[nobbygnome] 13/1/2021 18:32

Has the new CEO bought any yet. Now that would be a good sign if he bought a big chunk....

[nobbygnome] 13/1/2021 18:31

Great post timbo. The chance of success in the pneumonia study is low but it’s not zero....

The bottom line is EVG is worth more than the current market cap based on the breast cancer result and Juvanescence deal let alone any value attributed to the pneumonia study!

[peanut100] 13/1/2021 18:30

Like I've said before the real risk here is a take over and we miss out on the potential huge numbers you're talking about. Like you say if factoring a small chance of success even at 10% the price should be many multiples of current levels. You start factoring that % on all their products and it would be scary numbers. I'm pretty sure the lack of well known institutional holders/buyers because of the low market cap where they can't invest is an issue. As stupid as it sounds should the market cap rise to a level where they're allowed to buy the shares say £50m, you will then see these guys paying higher levels. Madness but that's my thoughts.

[lovewinshatelosses] 13/1/2021 18:23

timbo - that is surely the BOD to blame for this aspect then? Broker is unlikely to go off piste?

[mesquida] 13/1/2021 18:21

Many thanks for such a thought provoking post, timbo, a worthy reminder of just how valuable bulletin boards can be to to the private investor when they are not clogged up with imbeciles. Thankyou once again.

[lovewinshatelosses] 13/1/2021 18:20

I totally agree peanut - and that is why this is my biggest small cap pharma holding. It is completely baffling when you view at least half a dozen other (loosely) similar stocks, few which have potentially as much in the locker as we do, yet have at least double or treble bagged, or more, in the last six months or so.
I maintain that big insider buying when the windows of opportunity allowed, would have helped on this front, so that may account somewhat for the lull, but not exclusively.
Hopefully we will see a dramatic movement in the right direction at some point in 2021 that will make up for these current frustrations.

[timbo003] 13/1/2021 18:12

>>>peanut

I think the main reason for the lowly market cap is that the market is assigning a zero valuation on the Pneumonia indication. This is probably due to the company broker(Finncap) assigning a zero valuation for pneumonia and they will just use the numbers in their forecasts and estimates that Evgen have given them for guidance.

Exactly why the company broker (and the company) are happy with a zero valuation (which translates to a zero chance of technical success) is a total mystery to me and probably to all others who regularly contribute here.

I spent 25 plus years working for various big pharma companies in R&D and got involved with numerous proof of concept clinicals similar in size and scope to the STAR study, but never in that time did I encounter any clinical studies (whether I was involved or not) where the probabilty of success was assigned a value of under 10%, let alone 0%, if the chances of success were <10% you just wouldn't waste time and money doing the study.

LifeArc (and their expert panel) clearly think the study has a reasonable chance of success (ie. >10%) or they would not be providing the funding.

Potential sales might be say $1Bn/annum assuming the treatment is effective, the current clinical unmet need and 300K deaths each year (in the developed world), so over a 10 year period revenues might be £10Bn (or £1Bn if you risk adjust with a conservative 10% chance of success), which to my mind should give a current market valuation of many multiples of £15M

[moneymunch] 13/1/2021 17:58

Amazing what a bit of positive data in the Covid space can do for sentiment peanut, SNG's stellar rise was on the back of very encouraging phase 2 results, let's see what happens on DSMB's assessment of the first 100 patients recruited to SFX-01's Covid trials. The irony of course is that Evgen has already released very encouraging phase 2 results, but for breast cancer, and so the current £15m market cap seems to be mean and measly given the potential on the rest of the pipeline. Sooner or later true and fair value will prevail as good news rolls in. Gl :-)