Europa Oil & Gas (holdin... Share Discussion Threads

[jusmasel99] 30/7/2018 08:19

Thanks for the nice comments .. Its RiskyThat .. 'things outside his control' .. exactly why we have arrived where we are and the optimist in me sees nothing but good luck so far. The delay in Wressle has meant we got back our share in Wressle from UPL against a significantly higher Oil Price (although on the other hand if UPL strike it big time in the Moray Firth the shares portion of the farm out could have been worth a lot)

The Irish energy strategy with Brexit in mind is out of his control as well but more and more comments appearing from the government and energy regulators stating the importance of gas supplies to Ireland. They still rely on peat of all things for a significant amount of their electricity generation while environmentalists have blocked LNG terminals, Wind Turbine developments and pumped storage reservoirs.

Hermana - I wonder too why he hasn't bought any yet - he better get ready for questions about that at the AGM.

Mr CP - I do wonder about these valuations. 60p indicates a near £200m company and while this could be equated to UKOG's distorted valuation it is way way past the point where all of us would sell up and that would surely deflate the share price .. never mind good to dream ...

Potential share price changers coming up ...

Wressle .. history tells us that a successful planning application would push us to 8p and production over 10p - our application should be heard this Autumn and if successful production could start next Summer ..

Holmwood .. while I can't see this happening soon a planning success with the application to extend the timeframe could garner some buying interest from the Gushers .. add 1p

Inishkea .. as mentioned above I think the real mover could be analysis of the seismic around 18/20-7 which may reveal an underlying prospect. That could be huge coupled with the prospect of Hugh going it alone (initially) with a well on our other prospects in the Slyne basin. That story line could start developing this Autumn and if he is true to his word and initiates tender talk for a well next year a farm in is surely a certainty and must be worth £30m/10p a share at least.

The Unexpected .. Good and Bad .. a farm out in the Porcupine? Bound to increase the share price - say 5p a share - new ventures (well we have the subsidiary company all set up for this) - totally depends on what and where and no idea what effect on the share price but it would bring the 'bad' into play with Fundraising which could dent the share price but history again tells us that he is reluctant to do that under previous placing prices so he may well wait until a sustained 6p share price Other 'bad' (well I think it would be good) is selling out Holmwood to UKOG which would raise cash but probably deflate the share price in the short term.

SO this time next year Rodney the share price could be 21p by my calcs and if so I would wish the remaining shareholders all the best as I sell up and finally retire ....

[currypasty] 30/7/2018 07:58

EDR insti buys more... EOG need some insti holders

[itsriskythat] 30/7/2018 07:49

Don't want to knock the nice 60p target, but some of these broker targets are a touch optimistic.

[itsriskythat] 30/7/2018 07:43

Thanks, Broker and NOMAD finncap

[currypasty] 29/7/2018 22:22

Europa Oil & Gas (EOG): UK portfolio strongly underpins shares

Key data
•Share price (p): 4.2
•Target price (p): 60.0
•Market cap (£m): 12.5
•Enterprise value (£m): 10.2

Ignore Ireland and its major upside potential from medium-term exploration. Europa is now trading at a hefty discount to the value of just its UK business, where planning approvals are progressing. Success in the coming months would prove a material catalyst. Meanwhile, the prospects for the completely overlooked Irish exploration portfolio will continue to improve as confidence returns to the space.

Jonathan Wright | [e-mail]

[currypasty] 29/7/2018 22:21

Thanks for the summary Jus.

[guesswhosback] 29/7/2018 12:39

Good post Jus thanks for taking the time.

[itsriskythat] 29/7/2018 12:16

Jus, it was a good read for a Sunday morning.

Hugh's a known hard worker. The time this plan takes to evolve and the outcome still depend on many things outside of his control.

Also needs some luck with Wressle. Lot of money invested there already about £5m gross to the Wressle partners.

[hermana3] 29/7/2018 11:50

Jus, Excellent summary of Hugh's strategy. Will we ever see the day when O'Cathain buys a few here?

[hermana3] 29/7/2018 11:50

Jus, Excellent summary of Hugh's strategy. Will we ever see the day when O'Cathain buys a few here?

[jusmasel99] 29/7/2018 10:17

Recap of where we stand including speculation and my own assumptions...

Corrib / Inishkea

We own the licence to the remainder of the original Corrib discovery licence.

Right now this is the real jewel in the crown as far as I am concerned. Since we were awarded the licence much has happened and been discovered. From what I hear Hugh applied for the licence on a whim and was surprised that they got it. At the time the details of well 18/20-7 were secret and only became available last year and we now know that Shell found gas in the well and stopped drilling before the bottom of the reservoir was reached .. the following year they went back to the same area and performed a sub sea survey and followed that up with 3D seismic as the same time they were evaluating the corrib reservoir. That 3D seismic becomes available to purchase soon. Bear in mind that while all this was going on Shell pulled the plug on Ireland and stopped all further exploration while putting Corrib up for sale and relinquishing the remainder of the licence. Now CPPIB are buying out Shell Eire (confirmation expected soon) and Vermillion are taking over the operatorship. My research found that CPPIB are not averse to investing further in Irish Offshore including Exploration while Vermillion have confirmed to me that they are planning 3 new wells into Corrib reservoir in 2020 to boost production but what is interesting is that they have said they are considering drilling deeper to explore for additional reservoir. Link that to what Hugh has mentioned about what they know about the 18/20-7 discovery and that they think there is a chance of additional prospects underneath a proven gas discovery in our licence then Vermillion's well could be a real bonus if successful.

On top of all this, brexit is imminent, Irish energy strategy - even if moving to renewables which they are very slow to do - relies heavily on Corrib and as that declines the dependence on UK Gas imports heightens which is useful leverage when negotiating Irish Borders I suppose ...

So we know why further exploration at Corrib stopped all of a sudden and we know that Eire would dearly love to have additional own gas resources - but we also know that it took 15 or so years to get Corrib into production which has many implications but most importantly it really puts the boot into the prospect of any further investment into gas production infrastructure .. e.g. LNG terminals in Cork which makes Corrib possibly the only chance for ireland to increase their own production through exploration....

And then of course the 'complete co-incidence' of two new directors joining the board in January - both of whom were involved in the original Corrib discovery and who accepted options triggered by a 10p share price to do so. Both have been remarkably silent and only one has bought shares in the company since then (possibly the only downside to my observations about Inishkea) but if you are a positive thinker like me you will trust that before too long they will prove Hugh right for bringing them on board....

One thing that keeps getting overlooked is the fact that Hugh keeps repeating that they will drill next year and I don't hear any mention of that depending on a farm in prior to starting the process. PVR did the same last year and did quite well via financing and farm ins eventually.

All this is out there .. you can check if you want .. the speculation is mine alone but that is why I invest here as a speculator .. in my mind it is inconceivable that further exploration in and around Corrib will not take place sooner rather than later and EOG are in the prime position to take advantage.

[tommy241] 28/7/2018 18:05

Courtesy of Porkpies from LSE:

[itsriskythat] 28/7/2018 11:16

Well, at least it's easier to operate offshore Ireland.

[itsriskythat] 28/7/2018 11:15

Seems there more trouble up North ..



"Onshore oil and gas operations are dangerous and polluting at every stage including the exploratory drilling phase. Not least is the flaring of waste gas containing multiple toxins and carcinogens. Production stage involves mechanical and chemical procedures which are hazardous and poorly regulated. These pose threats to human health and wildlife habitats, bringing negative impacts to the environment locally and globally.

Allowing this kind of industry into our precious rural spaces was given inadequate consideration. We know it is time to bring all fossil fuel activity to a stop! Please we ask for your help in this urgent appeal. If we raise £10,000 by the end of the month we can submit our case - already prepared - that exploration for oil, with potentially invasive production methods ahead, SHOULD NOT BE PERMITTED HERE."

So £10,000 needed to request judicial reviews of both Biscathorpe and N Kelsey approvals.

PS> The bit about hazardous and poorly regulated was below the belt.

[itsriskythat] 28/7/2018 10:51

"Direct action resistance doesn’t have to be about breaching the peace. In my experience, it was about a large group of passionate, inspiring and motivated individuals coming together to protect something bigger than themselves. It was about dancing on the side of the road, watching documentaries, sharing stories, and spreading love."

I'm only here to share and spread the love.

:)

[dunderheed] 27/7/2018 20:01

You'll probably sit tight till 12p!

[thetoonarmy2] 27/7/2018 19:47

Curry me to mate 6p breakeven will I have the sense to dump em or will greed takeover and i just sit tight for 9p ?

[christy41] 27/7/2018 15:58

You're not alone CP,anyway nice to end the week with a change of share price direction and a little bit of positivity surrounding Europa....

[currypasty] 27/7/2018 15:40

5p ASK on a roll, Im only a penny down on my placing shares now...lol

[currypasty] 27/7/2018 12:07

Our mcap is 14m at 4.7p.. even paying the equivalent of 30p is still less than £100m, and chicken feed to a major surely

edit, we really are a little tiddler at £14m, most of our peers are way over that, ukog £105m, igas, £140m

[jusmasel99] 27/7/2018 12:04

Our Irish Assets are held in two subsidiary companies so I suppose either or both could be bought out while leaving the core UK assets intact. Not sure how Hugh would value them at this stage but given they represent the major part of our prospect of achieving a 30p per share I am sure they would have to cough up a considerable amount..

[currypasty] 27/7/2018 12:02

I hope the large sellers is now out, or holds the rest now we are in spitting distance of some actual progress

[currypasty] 27/7/2018 11:12

is there a possibility that after seeing the data room, some major would just buy us out rather than fart about with the farm in process?

[currypasty] 27/7/2018 10:44

thanks jus, very encouraging

[jusmasel99] 27/7/2018 08:59

We expect that this level of activity will lead to increased interest and further potential activity in the near term. Drilling is currently scheduled to return to the basin in 2019, when Nexen will drill its Iolar prospect in LO 16/7 and Woodside plans to drill the Beaufort/Ventry gas prospect in FEL 5/13.