Essensys Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 05/4/2022 12:25

Bought in as a recovery idea. Lets see.

[carmarthenshire] 04/4/2022 19:52

https://twitter.com/mathewthomas484/status/1511054055640113158?s=21&t=inclZl7pGLvpAeEN67a8HQ

[p1nkfish] 01/4/2022 18:33

Thanks 74tom, will read and digest.

[74tom] 01/4/2022 17:49

- Raised a material amount last summer (£33m) at £2.85

- Thesis was that this going to be spent on a ‘land grab’ of market share in the US & APAC regions - short term increase in losses was flagged in the placing, short term pain = medium to long term gain

- Their software helps landlords of flexible workspaces to manage their offices around the world in a much more efficient manner, it was a growing market before covid but that supercharged their potential, hence the fundraise. This is a good watch to get a better idea;



- Was a profitable company before listing in 2019 with material recurring revenue, ARR has continue to grow since & is on track to hit £25m+ next year

- They released a trading update during the week that the war started which said that top line revenues would be £4m (~15%) lower than expectations because they hadn’t been able to execute their growth strategy in the US & APAC due to Covid, however cash would be much higher than expected.

The reasoning makes sense to me & surely warranted a 20% haircut at most. It traded at £2.60 on 28th Feb, so that would have knocked it back to just over £2.

Instead due to the market mayhem the shares open at £1.87 and sold off to £0.75 over 2 days. It turned out that Blackrock were responsible as they had dumped their 5% holding.

Unlike the other dogs that have had similar treatment in the last few weeks (Made Tech, Seraphine, Music Magpie etc), this appears to be a proper company with a very bright future. It’s well capitalised & could be profitable overnight if they decided to stop expanding. Most SaaS companies are valued at multiples of recurring revenue, right now Essensys is at <1x which makes no sense at all.

So it’s simply mispriced in my opinion, I expect a steady recovery over the next 12-18 months not a dead cat bounce!

[p1nkfish] 01/4/2022 15:43

Given we are all speculators to some degree can anyone tell me why this is an investment not just a pure speculation to be bought simply as a dead cat bounce?

[nasnas1] 31/3/2022 16:26

I've just noticed that ESYS's largest customer, Industrious, raised US$200M. just three weeks ago, which bodes well for its expansion plans ... in partnership with ESYS of course.Might Industrious even been tempted to take over ESYS at ESYS's current lowly price?

[74tom] 31/3/2022 12:57

There haven't been any block sells since late Tuesday which preceded the breakout yesterday, I think the current problem is traders - once the impatient are out then up we go again.

[momentum1] 31/3/2022 09:43

Still a seller (black rock) on the order book, albeit the selling as abated which suggests it is imminent, yesterdays volume was 1.8m assuming half of that was BR. they have a million to go. Once they are fully out you will see this shoot very quickly. 21ema 126p initial target.

[likya123] 31/3/2022 07:44

Telegram group link for Esys

[hedgehog 100] 30/3/2022 20:20

ESYS's largest customer, Industrious, raised US$200M. recently from CBRE (22nd. February), which bodes well for its expansion plans ... in partnership with ESYS of course.

“Industrious had a number of offers to consider late last year and was approached by a lot of potential investors. In the end, partnering with CBRE just made too much sense for Industrious’ long-term plans for scalability and growth.”

Industrious has continued to expand and grow amid the pandemic, faring better than some other flexible workspace operators.

The company's pioneering focus on management agreements, which represent nearly 90% of Industrious’ portfolio, has been shown to be nicely resilient in challenging times.


Indeed Industrious believes that it has emerged as the leading flex platform moving forward.

So with flexible workspace expected to continue its rapid expansion this decade, and management agreements a strong sub-trend within this, then Industrious could potentially expand by multiples this decade.

I would estimate that Industrious probably accounts for a few £M. of ESYS's annual turnover, so Industrious expansion alone could potentially add £10M.+ to ESYS's annual revenue this decade.

[likya123] 30/3/2022 18:08

Pandemic, Russia and mostly the seller/s brought this fantastic company from almost £3 to below 80p.

I anticipate the results in 3 weeks will be very good and the share price will race back above £2. It's no wonder the directors bought almost half a million just a few weeks back.

Bought a bunch at 80p today and with it going no trade to buy into close I think we'll start flying up fast from here, especially if the seller is done which looks very likely.

[likya123] 30/3/2022 16:33

The seller....was no trade to buy for a short time before close and could sell the farm.

If seller finished this should race above a quid.

[divmad] 30/3/2022 15:06

Who is "they"?

[likya123] 30/3/2022 13:02

Assuming they get rid of everything how long will they take to finish selling in your opinion?

[momentum1] 30/3/2022 12:26

Not done as they keep reloading the order book, but having run the numbers on this they have 2 million in total, assuming they want to dispose of everything they are nearing completion. We will see a real squeeze once the supply dries up totally. Hope this helps, targets technically are 126p (gap fill) and 168p. Both achievable given the lowly mcap

[likya123] 30/3/2022 12:22

Just bought a wad as think the directors who recently bought almost half a million shares between them also know this is seriously over sold.

[likya123] 30/3/2022 12:12

So they've about £30 million cash?
Seems a little bit of a no brainer if the only thing that was holding this below a quid was a seller.....seller done?

[74tom] 30/3/2022 08:54

Interested to see where this gets to by the time the interims & investor presentation occur on the 21/22 April... Worth pointing out that it opened at £1.87 on the 1st March which suggests £1.50+ should be easily possible with a bit of patience.

[nasnas1] 30/3/2022 08:42

Wow look at those numbers - once seller goes this will rocket we'll pass the 150 mark for sure!!

[momentum1] 30/3/2022 08:22

30m cash and mcap of 48m, business only worth 18m?? Re rate in bound

[nasnas1] 30/3/2022 07:58

last time it puked to 100p a few years back it went on to multibagsellers always create great buying ops

[nasnas1] 30/3/2022 07:57

Heavy director buying at the current price and a strong cash position strengthen ESYS case

[x54v] 29/3/2022 19:59

Yes, the comparison was purely chart based to show how rapid and strong recovery moves can be once a seller has cleared.

POLY up 39.5% today alone and POG up 66%. Huge moves possible from deeply oversold positions.

ESYS next?

[74tom] 29/3/2022 18:47

Ha I read that Poly RNS today too as I was tempted but the debt situation put me off straight away, far better risk v reward here. Seller clearing rapidly & upcoming results + presentation should act as catalysts. Strong buy.

[hedgehog 100] 29/3/2022 17:57

From the 9th. March POLY update:
"Net debt increased to US$ 1.87 billion as of 1 March"


So EYSY, with its strong net cash position, is a much safer alternative.

It has big upside, but without the downside of a speculative gamble like POLY, where the risk is difficult to quantify.