Equals Share Discussion Threads

[barque] 21/11/2023 16:20

Take from this what you will. It’s not meant in any way as advice.
I contacted Equals IR this morning to raise some of the matters being discussed here:
• The “begging bowl” perception by some of the RNS in response to market speculation.
• The seemingly accelerated process regarding share awards.
• Speculation regarding a placing.
• A feeling of “radio silence””;.
I’m not a regular poster, to say the least. You’ll hear from me when I have something to say. My last was at the time of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That post also followed an email to IR, which was answered personally by Ian S-T.
Well the same happened today. As I did before, I will paraphrase the (very prompt) response.
Ian S-T confirmed that much of what has been communicated has been governed by the Takeover Panel and the Takeover Code, and that this also restricts what they can communicate in general terms. We all know this to be correct as far as it goes. Whether it explains the wording of the original RNS is still up for conjecture I suppose.
He said that it might be better to discuss matters on the phone, which he was happy to do, but that a representative from either Cannacord or Lazard would have to be involved, as the conversation would have to be reported back to the Panel.
After consideration, I turned down the call. Mainly because the big unanswered question (to me) is regarding a possible placing, and I really couldn’t expect an answer to that. It wouldn’t be right by my way of thinking even to pose the question.
So, nothing to report – except this: I came away from the exchange believing I was dealing with someone who I could trust. Instinct is all it is, and we all know instinct can be very wrong. However, as I explained to Ian S-T, I bought my modest holding on the basis of being a very satisfied FairFX cardholder, who liked the vision he and his team set out for Equals. Not very sophisticated, but then I’m not! But I asked myself – has the man ever let me down? The answer is no, and here’s the rub. I will stick my neck out and say that I trust him to do what he thinks is right for Equals, and on that basis, I am holding for the present. If he does what’s right for Equals I see no reason why I, as a shareholder, won’t benefit at some point in the future. I should also say that the fact that Ian S-T is fielding emails like mine impressed me. It would be so easy to have a gatekeeper in place, but he is prepared personally to face the "customer". It may be somebody else would wish to have that phone conversation with him; he's evidently willing to engage.
For absolute clarity, I should say I bought in at 40p, so I realise my wriggle room is somewhat more comfortable than many others’ will be. So please, take this very much as a personal view. There are so many unknowns here and we’ll all have somehow to arrive at a judgement. Mine is to hang on. If I’m made to look foolish, it won’t be a first.

[qs99] 21/11/2023 14:40

any views from Brummy?

[carcosa] 21/11/2023 12:47

I would be somewhat surprised if Madison announce anything. Fully expect the PUSU date to be extended two or three more times, given the nature of having to make an announcement first place.

Of course, if that is the case it infers Madison are seriously interested but to announce a definite intention to proceed after such a short length of time seems a bit racy to me.

Also, other parties may be interested in Equals and there is a mechanism in the Takeover code which does not, at this stage, require an announcement. ref hxxps://code.thetakeoverpanel.org.uk/tp

[dupont56] 21/11/2023 12:08

Just over a week until Madison need to announce a firm intention to make an offer.

If there is a bid I'll be putting some of my proceeds into CSFS. Looks like the best of the competition in fx.

[redartbmud] 21/11/2023 11:55

From my recollection PH said he was selling down to a level that satisfied his personal circumstances.
I don't think that he is likely to go beyond that point.

It is quite reasonable to take some money off the table when a holding has skewed the portfolio because of share price strength. It is a value judgment if or when it is done, and in acceptance that further strength in the holding would have generated an enhanced return over the longer term.

Not speaking for PH, but from personal experience.

red

[masurenguy] 21/11/2023 11:46

He has still not substantiated his claim - see post #2879 above.

[66fingers] 21/11/2023 11:45

I thought that was the reference to him top slicing to avoid his girlfriend separating him from his crown jewels. I wasn't aware he had sold more?

[toptrump1] 21/11/2023 11:41

Measureguy he mentioned it in a podcast

[elsa7878] 21/11/2023 08:29

The more I look at the announcement the odder it appears. It seems to exclude any other potential acquirer.

In accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Takeover Code, by not later than 5.00 pm on 29 November 2023, each of Fleetcor Europe Limited and Madison Dearborn Partners, LLC must either announce a firm intention to make an offer for Equals under Rule 2.7 of the Takeover Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer for Equals.

I heard that PH has not spoken to the management since the announcement - that in itself is odd if he has has such a large holding....I would want to know what prompted their decision to try to sell up.

[66fingers] 21/11/2023 08:27

I'm going very nervous about a possible announcement that negatively affects the share price. I can't imagine that the shenanigans of the last 3 weeks would have brought in any new business and could possibly have scared off some existing customers,

[masurenguy] 21/11/2023 07:22

Re: #2878. Shsst1 - You have not responded by providing any evidence to substantiate your claim that Paul Hill is still selling shares here.

[redartbmud] 20/11/2023 22:15

Who are they going to buy that can improve on what they do?
Best in class opertaing platform.
All they will be buying is the customer book, and they are capable of winning thoe customers with what they already offer.
An expensive way of expanding.

red

[shstt1] 20/11/2023 20:30

1. £18m not much for a company if it has ambitions of becoming a world beater in currency payments etc. compared to the billions available to the big boys
They will likely want to expand by acquiring others in which case a placing or takeover through all share issue or part cash/part shares is likely
2. It has at ALPH and AGFX
Currencies haven’t been volatile lately which hasn’t helped

[redartbmud] 20/11/2023 15:26

1 November Equals Rns:

"Response to market speculation
The Board of Equals Group plc ("Equals" or the "Company") (AIM: EQLS) notes the recent market speculation, and confirms that it is conducting a review of the Company's strategic options (the "Strategic Review"). As part of this process, the Company has contacted a limited number of potential counterparties including Fleetcor Europe Limited and Madison Dearborn Partners, LLC to assess whether such parties could put forward a proposal that would deliver greater value to Equals' shareholders than pursuing a standalone independent strategy. Any such proposal could include an offer for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of the Company.


3 November RNS on Equals page:

"THIS ANNOUNCEMENT IS AN ANNOUNCEMENT FALLING UNDER RULE 2.8 OF THE CITY CODE ON TAKEOVERS AND MERGERS (THE "CODE")."

"Fleetcor notes the announcement made by Equals Group on 1 November 2023 in response to market speculation.

Fleetcor confirms that it has been contacted by Equals Group to assess whether it wishes to make an offer for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Equals Group. Fleetcor announces that it does not intend to make such an offer for Equals Group."

Two parties were named on 1 Nov.
Fleetcore responded quickly, with a NO on 3 November.
Madison Dearborne doesn't appear to have formally commented.

I am taking the episode as now being completed and Equals is soldiering on as a stand alone business.
The market is aware that Equals has undertaken a strategic review exercise, in which the possibility of a beneficial link up with a bigger third party was raised. It is a way to quickly accelerate the value of a company, albeit extreme. by forcing a premium on disposal.
Neirher would it be ubusual for many companies to routinrly consider the odd acquisition that would accelerate growth, as long as the price at the time was right. Such acqusitive companies are approached by third parties more often than we realise and nothing happens in the vast majority of circumstances.

red

[masurenguy] 20/11/2023 15:20

He previously stated that he had top sliced a couple of weeks ago but what is your evidence that he is currently selling some more shares?

[shstt1] 20/11/2023 15:12

Paul Hill selling

[melton john] 20/11/2023 14:31

Big7ime,
I've copied an extract from the takeover panel rules that covers two possible scenarios (Thanks to Paul Scott on Stocko in ref to Halfords). My understanding of silly offers is that they are ignored.

2.2 WHEN AN ANNOUNCEMENT IS REQUIRED An announcement is required…

… (c) when, following an approach by or on behalf of a potential offeror to the board of the offeree company, the offeree company is the subject of rumour and speculation or there is an untoward movement in its share price;

(d) when, after a potential offeror first actively considers an offer but before an approach has been made to the board of the offeree company, the offeree company is the subject of rumour and speculation or there is an untoward movement in its share price and there are reasonable grounds for concluding that it is the potential offeror’s actions (whether through inadequate security or otherwise) which have led to the situation;

[redartbmud] 20/11/2023 13:25

Big7

Agreed.
I do aee that Rns as a big deal that had immediate consequences in the marketplace.
Another question might be wheter it has subsequently caused any business interruption, or disquiet amongst the bigger and newer customers in particular?

Regrettably private investors are the poor relations who are often second guessing on reports and statements that are imprecise or possibly ambiguous from time to time.
Information imparted to fund managers on investor days is alledgedly already in the public domain, but that is a questionable scenario as questions are raised and anwered in quick succession.
I have myself, from time to time, at post AGM chats, elicited answers to questions that have been perhaps been more incisive that the published blurb, and it isn't difficult to tease out during a 'chat' over a cup of tea, off the record. Especially when you become known as being a regular attendee.

red

[big7ime] 20/11/2023 13:00

Yeah agreed, and it’s not the first time they’ve made blunders. A profit is only a profit once realised and they seem more nervous than the shareholders. Wonder if Peel Hunt resigned or were sacked and why? Why did they want 2? Shareholders are always left in the dark. Reading between the lines becomes tiring.

[big7ime] 20/11/2023 12:09

red, why put the for sale sign up? I must say being in this game for many decades, I am a little concerned. Directors these days aren’t interested in their shareholders. You know what I mean. Why do they want out? Why did Agfx dirs quit? It’s could all be related, similar businesses.
If things are so good, which on the face of it do look so, why waste time and money on this exercise? If the next and subsequent TU/results are good, The share price will look after itself. Had they been approached with a silly offer? red, you will know the answer to this q, do they have to put any offer to their shareholders or just ones they agree to? Mars are paying 170% premium for Hotc, was that because they needed the dirs on board as they held such high % of the co.
Why hasn’t the share price responded? Dirs here don’t hold a high % so that could be reason. Why wouldn’t they want to confinue with big option awards etc until they are overvalued
I haven’t sold any but have squeaky pants
Confused from Coventry as you would say

[redartbmud] 20/11/2023 11:38

The company has picking up new customers at a rate of knots, and increasing the size of those onboarded, whilst their deals are also larger.
That to me speaks a successful operation with the potential for further growth.
The move onto the continent makes perfect sense.
They are generating free cash flow and now paying dividends.
I am not feeling any problems.


red

[techtrader5] 20/11/2023 11:18

Double top failure, could be the onset of a change in trend.

Not sure about what’s reason for offering themselves for sale, the rns isn’t so clear. If it’s because they can see more value in another taking their business forward the next expansion phase then I suppose the alternative could be raising capital, difficult as someone said in the present market.

Sold half last week as chart looks toppy. I go mainly by technical analysis so don’t shoot me down if the fundamental view isn’t so valid.

[melton john] 20/11/2023 09:12

I don't think so, certainly not to keep the lights on.

Cash flow statement at interims £M

Start 15.0 End 17.9

[toptrump1] 19/11/2023 23:20

placing coming