Epe Special Opportunities Share Discussion Threads

[mwj1959] 25/11/2024 14:39

So we've seen the end of the buyback

[n1mgn] 16/10/2024 16:19

Anyone got any ideas what I am missing here , over 50 % discount to nav and there stake in LUC gott be worth over 2 quid ,

[mwj1959] 09/9/2024 13:54

Half-yearly report should be out soon as was published on 15 Sep last year. Weakness in LUCE will have knocked 30p+ off NAV, but that's already been reflected in SP, which has fallen 30p. Anyone got any thoughts?

[davebowler] 08/7/2024 10:03

Longspur research today out on Luceco-
We've recently initiated research coverage on Luceco (LUCE LN) - one of the leading providers of LED lighting and electrical accessories for buildings and infrastructure in the UK. We think this offers investors some of the cleanest exposure to energy efficiency and electrical infrastructure spending as the UK faces its energy transition. We believe the stock offers investors long-term structural growth catalysed by near-term uptick on improved RMI spend (80% of revenues) and potential earnings upgrades from self-funded M&A which should not go unnoticed.



Long-term growth tailwinds with short-term RMI trigger: We see moderating inflation and interest rates translating into a return in RMI spend in 2025. With 80% of group revenue geared into RMI this should in-turn drive higher earnings growth for Luceco within the next 12 months. Meanwhile 20% of the business is focussed on larger scale infrastructure projects where we believe there is likely to be a sustained uptick. We have sales growing 10% in FY24 and 4% organic growth thereafter.
Cash generation enables M&A upgrades and / or reduces risk: Modestly geared (<1x EBITDA) and supported by strong cash generation, we believe higher organic growth could be augmented by M&A following three successive years of accretive acquisitions (Kingfisher Lighting, DW Windsor, BG Sync EV). Management are actively looking for acquisitions which will believe will drive further earnings upgrades. A further turn of EBITDA would keep leverage well below 2x allowing the company to spend c£30m which we think could deliver £25m of revenue and c£5m of EBITDA - a 15% upgrade on our FY25e EBITDA forecast.
Long-term re-rating potential: We see modest re-rating potential from its current peer discount as the company's earnings profile is more driven by secular energy efficiency and energy transition infrastructure spending, as opposed to UK economic performance and sentiment. At <8x EBITDA the company is trading mid-cycle levels and a c20% discount to electrical components peer DiscoverIE which we think is conservative given the earnings outlook, profitability, and quality (high ROCE) of the business.


Our low valuation case sees minimal revenue growth and flat margins on those achieved in FY24 giving a low-case valuation of GBp206. An acquisition in LED Lighting in FY25 combined with incremental margin improvement across segments sees our upside-case valuation at GBp261.

[davebowler] 02/7/2024 12:16

Longspur -Luceco has a leading position in the UK as a manufacturer and distributor of electrical accessories and LED lighting products. We see the company as being positioned to benefit from structural tailwinds from the transition to net zero through its low carbon offering and see this as a growth engine for the company moving forwards. The company has a strong cash generation profile and a history of accretive acquisitions, both of which we expect to continue in the medium term. We initiate with a central case valuation of GBp 222 per share.

[ohisay] 18/6/2024 06:54

355p NAV..
Half price !
Goodness me.

[2wild] 16/6/2024 21:13

Paid 175p Friday morning. Disappointed not to get any price improvement, on 170-175p spread with interactive investor. Although reading previous posts, may have got off lightly. Discount looks bonkers. Time will tell.

[value viper] 06/2/2023 08:20

NAV 334p errr......

[value viper] 27/1/2023 11:44

Their LUCE stake I believe currently worth around 54 million gbp
This is more than their entire mkt cap
They also have over 20 million liquid I think and other investments.
Stress, I think ......

[value viper] 26/1/2023 16:08

One annoyance is the valuation question marks though re the private companies they also own in Whittards etc etc Hhmm

[value viper] 26/1/2023 16:07

They are very liquid hidden to my knowledge maybe 20 million - if funds meant primarily for investment they need to address discount and I believe the matter is in hand

[hiddendepths] 26/1/2023 15:30

Hardly anyone deals in this share so the growth in value is often overlooked. The discount to NAV must be very juicy now. It would be nice if they could somehow get it to narrow. I suppose it's too much to hope they've got enough cash to buy back shares - that would increase NAV/share nicely.

[value viper] 26/1/2023 15:20

LUCE now up further 55 per cent since last NAV update which was 255p end of December - if they own 22/23 per cent of company that must be meaningful

[value viper] 26/1/2023 15:00

Awaiting some share price catch up .......

[value viper] 25/1/2023 16:09

Thanks trade
I believe circa 22% (EPIC) and Giles Brand personally holds a further 6% or so

[value viper] 25/1/2023 13:23

Anyone know how much LUCE they still own Ta It does seem tad opaque here

[rp] 22/10/2020 21:40

Was thinking of investing until I saw that "Sir" John Redwood is on the Advisory Board.

[n1mgn] 22/10/2020 09:44

If I have done my maths right this needs rerating.85p in cash 27 ?of LUC 102 mln 338plus 4 other investments next Nav will be interesting.

[horndean eagle] 12/2/2020 12:27

Looks like a decent uplift on Whittards. Hopefully they are planning on partial exit of LUCE. Offering distributions to shareholders wouldn't go amiss in order to help with discount control.

[hiddendepths] 24/5/2019 08:54

Look at LUCE go! Great turnaround there.

Tried to add here a couple of months back but II wouldn't let me. I'm allowed to close my existing position but they won't let anyone buy stock any more for some reason I can't understand.