Epe Special Opportunities Share Discussion Threads

[josels] 20/2/2011 21:30

The 11-year cycle of solar activity is quite variable and the present one is running late, with the next maximum expected in 2013.

The peak was not expected to be very strong

The most intense solar storm on record, which ruined much of the world's newly installed telegraph network in 1859, took place during an otherwise weak cycle. An 1859-type storm today could knock out the world's information, communications and electricity distribution systems,

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[josels] 13/2/2011 23:23

Daily % Chg -1.47% 3 months 14.16%
1 week 2.87% 6 months 64.77%
1 month 0.82% 1 year 92.65%
Details
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Prev close 30.21
52 week high 31.24
Last trade 29.77 52 week low 14.98
High 30.25 Low 29.70

Bloomberg Median Forecasts
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Q1 2011 28 Q3 2011 30
Q2 2010 29.15
Q4 2011 31


Commentary
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Spot silver traded at $29.765 an ounce on Thursday morning, representing a 2.87% gain from the prior week's levels. Silver, the precious metal that's also consumed by industry, has recovered from a temporary downtrend seen in January, and some profit-taking is beginning to weigh on the commodity again. However, the metal continues to trade in a quasi state of backwardation – a situation where the futures price is lower than the spot price. Hedging could be one reason, but more recently it has been suggested that it could be due to oversupply of silver. The backwardation story is not entirely clear at this juncture, however, and there are many more theories in the media, with some reports suggesting that there is a shortage of physical silver. Perhaps high silver prices in the spot market make it economically viable for mines to reopen and start production, causing future supply to increase and prices to fall. Historically, the performance of silver has been closely correlated with the price of gold, although in certain periods silver tends to outperform its yellow cousin and vice versa. The gold-to-silver ratio currently stands at 45.6x, which is slightly more than one standard deviation below the 31-year average ratio of 62.73x. The fact that silver is trading more than one standard deviation away from the historical average suggests that silver's outperformance against gold may be near an end. However, if there truly is a shortage of physical silver with constrained future production or an exogenous shock that causes widespread fear in markets, then silver could trade at two standard deviations away from its historical average, at a gold-to-silver ratio of 34.07x. Gold currently trades at $1,356 an ounce, all else equal, this would mean that silver could reach $39.8 an ounce.

[josels] 24/1/2011 20:08

ad1967mc - 24 Jan'11 - 16:28 - 7268 of 7269


Indeed. However the problem is wholly with the front month WTI, which remains resolutely weak. Brent on the other hand is holding up fairly well. March WTI bounced off a 50% retracement around $87.44 this afternoon. However once again the rally has not been reflected in the Mar-Dec calendar spread, which is consolidating at a new higher level. Until this shows clear signs of narrowing, any trade involving buying the front month WTI contract (other than on shorter time frames) is going to be heavy going.

ad1967mc - 24 Jan'11 - 18:20 - 7269 of 7269


...and exactly half an hour after posting my last comment, the spread topped out and subsequently reversed sharply, coinciding with the sharp fall in Brent. Anyone trading crude needs to monitor the calendar spreads. In the current market they're one of the best lead indicators going.

[josels] 13/1/2011 20:35

Gold 2.5 % down against the Euro
today market wanted euros rather than gold
My dream trade

[josels] 11/1/2011 18:35

This edition of the Short-Term Energy Outlook is the first to include forecasts (monthly, quarterly and annual) through December 2012.

EIA expects the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to average about $93 per barrel in 2011, $14 higher than the average price last year. For 2012, EIA expects WTI prices to continue to rise, with a forecast average price of $99 per barrel in the fourth quarter 2012. EIA's forecast assumes U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) grows 2.2 percent in 2011 and 2.9 percent in 2012, while world real GDP (weighted by oil consumption) grows by 3.3 percent and 3.7 percent in 2011 and 2012, respectively

[josels] 19/12/2010 22:58

exchange opening days during the incoming holidays

[josels] 16/12/2010 18:18

16 Dec'10 - 17:03 - 2723 of 2726


Well the volume on ADVFN is over 900k so not low..

The timimg suggest an RNS was sent over to the brokers about..1-2pm.. which would be correct if it were to be issued tomorrow.

If there is an RNS tmorrow, you know 1. it's bad and 2. it has leaked..

The manner of the fall suggests a continuous selling pattern: no bounces..


16 Dec'10 - 17:30 - 2725 of 2726

[josels] 06/11/2010 10:06

value will be brought to the shareholder as the discount narrows

[drw1] 14/10/2010 13:53

Trading on a massive discount to stated net asset value.

[josels] 13/10/2010 19:51

it is going up nicelly
lets see where it stops
I have been in those for a year or so

[josels] 08/10/2010 18:49

josels - 8 Oct'10 - 18:13 - 7013 of 7014 edit


wise words ad
at what time does the pit open?
many thanks


ad1967mc - 8 Oct'10 - 18:20 - 7014 of 7014


2pm. That said most volume is executed on the electronic platform these days. The pit's more focussed on options now. Still a lot of players wait on or near 2pm before making major commitments.

[josels] 02/9/2010 07:21

The US market is gagging on crude and products. I watch the calendar spreads (Oct 10 vs Dec 11) very closely and they've widened massively as crude bids for limited storage and the contango is dangled as an incentive. That's very bearish, so today's bull cull has come as no surprise. Not that I traded it particularly well. Made good money, but it should have been so much more.

[josels] 02/9/2010 07:19

yell
talent group
asia digital holdings
itv plc
stv group
wpp plc
trinity mirror
rightmove plc
informa
united business media
electric word
pearson
reed elsevier
daily mail & general trust A
mecom group

[jonwig] 15/8/2010 16:18

More details later.
I doubt ESO will be worth buying if the spread is enormous.
(Last trade was 30k @ 31p when spread was 28-33.)

[jonwig] 15/8/2010 16:17

Pending developments here (ie. the RTO of Equity Partnership Investment Company Cap Shares due to be voted on at end-August) suggest that either ESO or EQPC will be a speculative buy.

ESO is acquiring the EQPC portfolio at a discount, but the ESO share price is at a greater discount currently. In any event, the reliance on Whittards, etc. will reduce.

Note the 'incestuous' relationship between the companies.

[josels] 10/8/2010 07:13

Nasty bearish rising wedge on the index to...