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[josels] 12/11/2011 22:15

Hectorp - 11 Nov'11 - 10:18 - 12223 of 12243


Down...
( edited - reason is probably being Ex Divi) So that 'plus' is now out of the share till next year.
Have reduced /sold traders at POG at a loss of 4p today with a view to going overweight in Kurdish oil, ( note today's 13% rise in GKP and 10% in PCI, both of which I hold). I've resolved to steer clear of POG until close to the January update. There seems no point trading what is generally just following the Dow. IF POG resumes the upside trendline earlier than Jan-March, then I'd return.
MML remains my main gold interest ( I bought from 16p ) but I have five others, eg HMB KYS Shanta etc, and two silver. Notice that Silver Wheaton has tripled its dividend, making it hugely attractive for Funds.
However MML won't do much either for the next few months, and I took profits there a couple of days ago with a vew to trade back in, again in 2-3 months.
H.

[josels] 16/10/2011 18:10

Hectorp - 16 Oct'11 - 12:21 - 10883 of 10890

I have been disconnected for the last 3 days very much of the developments in the world as I am concentrating in a new job.
The idea of a bail out fund by the IMF is not new, and I don't think it is closed to agreement, so more volatility ahead. I will not be surprised to see the indexes down next week till the agreement is reached.

IMHO gold will moved upwards by fear of the rich to the mob (class war), and not by the 2 trillion IMF programe. The 2 trillion IMF progamme is bad news for gold IMHO.

If the IMF has two 2 trillions, they could buy bonds to a discount , and the money raised by the sellers of the bonds will need to move somewhere else, probably to finance the bonds issued by the rest of the IMF affiliated countries to buy the PIGS bonds For instance pension plans will sell PIGS downgraded bonds (as they need to comply with their own internal standards regarding where to invest their money), to buy the AAA, AA+ bonds issued by other IMF members to buy the PIGS bonds. Therefore I don't think the 2 trillion IMF programme bring new money from the printing press (but it gives the possiblity to the debt and fiat to change hands).


The money printing is coming only from the UK as already declared by the BCE. UK has one of the largest inflation rates in the OCDE due to QE. So is good to own assets rather than £



josels - 16 Oct'11 - 18:35 - 10892 of 10892 edit


How the world economy works? I have been thinking about that, commodities are extracted, and consumer products are consumed, in the middle we have the industries. What happens in the whole process is what interests me. Is nett wealth created in the process? Are there more assets at the end of the process? Resources are consumed (those are the real wealth) and wastage is produced to keep us all alive (all produced assets degrade, buildings, cars, all except gold and many other commodities in the ground), so IMHO in the very long term, as the time passes the world is pourer because commodities are consumed and assets degrade. We are going towards a much poorer world as commodities come to an end, unless technology is able to produce very cheap electricity in a massive scale, may be nuclear fission? I hope so. If that was the case oil would crash.


SO my thesis is that the world is in crisis because the commodities have been going up for a while, more fiat chasing less commodities, mean less standard of living ie clashes as people revolt. There is a great risk of massive political changes in the western wall (hard labour policies are a great possibility the world as resources become more scarce, they will ration the food, clothes....as during the great war).


The mob has strong appeal to the masses and can move the gold market very quickly upwards. I believe that physical gold will benefit tremendously short term with all that news in the TV of massive protests worldwide, the richer must be thinking to buy gold....

For these reasons I am very bullish in gold specially in the short term (next week). I don't believe that central banks will be selling gold soon because gold reserves would pay only for a small % of the debt, and that new money will do nothing in the long term, before selling or defaulting they would need to have a sustainable budget. But after all I may be wrong, so guaranteed stop losses a good bet, even though they don't allow to track the price, ie one need to be attached to the screen to carry on moving the stop loss up? well hopefully it keeps moving upwards :)

End to my divagations, lets see what the market does tonight,

[josels] 16/10/2011 18:04

josels - 16 Oct'11 - 17:51 - 10891 of 10892 edit


Hectorp - 16 Oct'11 - 12:21 - 10883 of 10890

I have been disconnected for the last 3 days very much of the developments in the world as I am concentrating in a new job.
The idea of a bail out fund by the IMF is not new, and I don't think it is closed to agreement, so more volatility ahead. I will not be surprised to see the indexes down next week till the agreement is reached.

If the IMF has two 2 trillions, they could buy bonds to a discount , and the money raised by the sellers of the bonds will need to move somewhere else, probably to finance the bonds issued by the rest of the IMF affiliated countries to buy the PIGS bonds For instance pension plans will sell PIGS downgraded bonds (as they need to comply with their own internal standards regarding where to invest their money), to buy the AAA, AA+ bonds issued by other IMF members to buy the PIGS bonds. Therefore I don't think the 2 trillion IMF programme bring new money from the printing press (but it gives the possiblity to the debt and fiat to change hands).

The money printing is coming only from the UK as already declared by the BCE. UK has one of the largest inflation rates in the OCDE due to QE. So is good to own assets rather than £



josels - 16 Oct'11 - 18:35 - 10892 of 10892 edit


How the world economy works? I have been thinking about that, commodities are extracted, and consumer products are consumed, in the middle we have the industries. What happens in the whole process is what interests me. Is nett wealth created in the process? Are there more assets at the end of the process? Resources are consumed (those are the real wealth) and wastage is produced to keep us all alive (all produced assets degrade, buildings, cars, all except gold and many other commodities in the ground), so IMHO in the very long term, as the time passes the world is pourer because commodities are consumed and assets degrade. We are going towards a much poorer world as commodities come to an end, unless technology is able to produce very cheap electricity in a massive scale, may be nuclear fission? I hope so. If that was the case oil would crash.


SO my thesis is that the world is in crisis because the commodities have been going up for a while, more fiat chasing less commodities, mean less standard of living ie clashes as people revolt. There is a great risk of massive political changes in the western wall (hard labour policies are a great possibility the world as resources become more scarce, they will ration the food, clothes....as during the great war).


The mob has strong appeal to the masses and can move the gold market very quickly upwards. I believe that physical gold will benefit tremendously short term with all that news in the TV of massive protests worldwide, the richer must be thinking to buy gold....

For these reasons I am very bullish in gold specially in the short term (next week). I don't believe that central banks will be selling gold soon because gold reserves would pay only for a small % of the debt, and that new money will do nothing in the long term, before selling or defaulting they would need to have a sustainable budget. But after all I may be wrong, so guaranteed stop losses a good bet, even though they don't allow to track the price, ie one need to be attached to the screen to carry on moving the stop loss up? well hopefully it keeps moving upwards :)

End to my divagations, lets see what the market does tonight,

[josels] 09/10/2011 18:27

josels - 9 Oct'11 - 19:13 - 10581 of 10581 edit


volvo
very possible, POG has been outperforming from the middle of last week, THis will go +10% in a day, anyday, if insiders have good news.
if markets behaves I agree £7 next week very very probable if the production is going well

I am optimist with POG, worth a limited risk IMHO; garanteed stop loss worthwhile as:

"Any compromise could still be foiled as the Slovak government struggles to overcome differences to approve enhancements to the bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility. "




tuesday key vote



it seems that the oposition in slovakia is in favour of the bailout fund, so it will most probably be approved by slovakia, but the coalliation forming the goverment may not be united in teh vote TBC., it appears the situation is similar to Germany when Merkel was facing loosing the vote of her own party and the support of the opposition.

[josels] 23/9/2011 21:44

The 4 year cycle suggest a bottom in 2012...
See also..

[josels] 01/8/2011 12:51

Leeson31 - 30 Jul'11 - 18:35 - 7691 of 7693


hi BountyHunter, this is the august contract for oil, do you know where i can get a sept one?



cheers mate,

Leeson

bountyhunter - 30 Jul'11 - 22:01 - 7692 of 7693


Hi Leeson, yes no problem at all - simply change the 'Q' (in CL.Q11) in that link to a 'U'...



Contract codes are here...


Cheers, bh

Leeson31 - 30 Jul'11 - 22:30 - 7693 of 7693


Tyvm mate!

[josels] 18/7/2011 21:31

Hi Josels:

Data Explorers - Stock On Loan




This will give you a basic chart of the stock on loan... it's the only one I know about that's free...

N.B. Paste the stock code - the ISIN ('GB00B01C3S32' for RRS) is best, so that you get exactly the right stock info - into the search box and hit the search button!

(You can find the ISIN on the main page for any stock on ADVFN, above the price and bid/offer data).

;)

[josels] 01/7/2011 13:14

gold struggling
I have the feeling that if interest rates goes up, gold miners will tend to edge production to obtain finance. Selling the mini gold rallies

[josels] 27/6/2011 09:12

apparently the greek church has assets to pay twice the national debt
in France24 they where saying yesterday that are voices in Greece asking for the church to contribute to pay the debt
as I said the Greek have more assets to pay the debt that the UK

another reason to add to the list to by banks in near future IMHO

[josels] 04/6/2011 06:29

wolstencroft - 4 Jun'11 - 04:17 - 6894 of 6895


IMHO PIs lose money because
1) they are the worst sort of momentum followers but join too late and leave too early
2) they don't do enough fundamental research
3) they are short term traders not real investors
4) they over-invest rather than build a position over time
5) they think a good company with recent good-feel means a good investment
6) they get carried away with an investment and sell out too late after the golden days have ended
7) they under appreciate the drivers of future performance and over appreciate past performance
8) most importantly, then cannot determine inflexion points in a company's business which result in one-off changes to valuation

FWIW I'll been adding to POG since around 1000p. I think POG had advantages on 1) 2) 5) 7) 8) above but 6) is still a problem and I think many have been burned by not following 4) and succumbing to 3)

MML on the other hand I see as having weaknesses in 1) 5) and 7)

GLTA to all especially Hectorp and Volvo

[josels] 02/6/2011 20:22

GWG on the TSX venture. It's a cracking company imo. I rate the prospects more highly than LYC (or any other stock in the sector) because of the fully integrated model, higher grade and high % of Heavy REE's.

[josels] 27/5/2011 05:29

pineapple1 - 26 May'11 - 14:03 - 6714 of 6734


josel...i watch the tape a lot.Its always a good indication of accumalation or distribution.Sells outnumber buys (on advfn feed) and the price rising as many insti buy off the bid rather than the offer.If you get DMA you can too.

[josels] 23/4/2011 21:10

threat for gold and silver : Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee on Tuesday and Wednesday
--------------------------------------------------------------
Greece, short the DAX banks?