Epe Special Opportunities Share Discussion Threads

[value hound] 09/4/2019 11:44

Well, there is the 87.5pps in cash less all liabilities, in addition to all the other investments that aren't LUCE!? :-)

[spectoacc] 09/4/2019 07:21

Short termers, long termers, every other type of termers I'd suggest. Whole time I've followed EPE it's been a poor performer on a massive spread.

If you like EPE then you have to like LUCE. If you like LUCE, buy LUCE :)

[value hound] 09/4/2019 06:49

Results out - NAV per share now 241.5p according to my calcs, based on LUCE's increased share price since end January of 76p before the start today (LUCE's finals also out) whilst the rest of their P/F is "conservatively valued".

Much too wide a discount IMO (37% at 153pps), but the spread (150-170p) remains off-putting for short-termers.

[value hound] 09/3/2019 13:27

They did a portfolio update in March last year because there was specific news, but not in 2017 or 2016. The annual report is due in late April / early May.

The last NAV we knew was at the end of September since when the uplift in LUCE's value alone would put NAV at 234pps according to my calculations (a c.32% discount). Of this, there should be around 120-125p per share in cash (depending on how much cash was included in the previous figure that was held in Process Components and how much has gone on buybacks.

Of course, a lot depends on how the other investments are doing. IMO it's either undervalued, very undervalued - or extremely so. But given the spread, you have to be confident enough to hold it for a while as it makes it very much not a trader's stock.

[n1mgn] 08/3/2019 23:14

gents , any idea when the next Nav update is due , surely with LUCe having doubled I recent weeks we must have a large increase , any one that can,shed some light it would be much appreciated . thxs

[value hound] 29/1/2019 21:23

Well FWIW, I know purely anecdotally that Whittards is much in demand with teeanage girls.

Unfortunately, I'm now of an age where I only now this vicariously - via my offspring :-)

[horndean eagle] 29/1/2019 21:17

Apologies. Never saw your message. They give ranges on the valuations within their accounts somewhere or other. Pleased with LUCE results today. I was tempted to buy low 30s but decided not to as I was a bit worried about retail backdrop. In all honesty I was a bit of a wimp. They flagged up a whole host of easy wins for the second half and hence they were so confident. Now we can hopefully start to see ESO re-rate in tandem.

[value hound] 29/1/2019 08:46

LUCE up a bit - nothing here. Even more of a bargain but the spread means it's not a trader's stock.

[value hound] 01/11/2018 13:46

Horndean Eagle; what's your reference point for Whittards' current trading / estimated valuation?

TIA

[horndean eagle] 01/11/2018 12:38

LUCE is a modest part of the pot now. Director buying does seem a little bit staged but have a look at how well whittards is doing. Its worth a huge premium to what its in the books at. As i said. they are not total idiots.

[value hound] 01/11/2018 10:34

Shares have been on a good run, LUCE up a bit today and directors buying, close to £37m in cash versus mkt cap of £49m.

OTOH, horrible spread as ever, no yield, and overly-wedded to LUCE's fortunes, so you've pretty much got to trust them for the longer term.

Feeling smug as I bought at what I thought was the low, then averaged down at the absolute nadir (I think). But it may be a tad early to call victory!

[spectoacc] 01/10/2018 07:53

Lo facciamo davvero

[value hound] 01/10/2018 07:46

Maybe they mean 'new deals' on LUCE!? :-)

Speriamo di no

[spectoacc] 01/10/2018 07:11

+11p on NAV isn't bad but be lucky to get +5p on share price (or zero!). Of more interest I thought was:

"ESO intends to use the capital returned for new deals."

That implies to me that they may not be punting the cash on yet more LUCE, which would surely be a good thing.

[value hound] 01/10/2018 06:52

Almost 26p uplift on NAV (since the interims) - 11.16pps uplift from disposal of PCL -.nice news this morning.

[spectoacc] 28/9/2018 07:48

There is that argument - but bear in mind EPE have been using some of that cash to buy more LUCE! If you think they're wrong, and that LUCE may go pop, then definitely don't buy either.

[value hound] 28/9/2018 07:29

Because if LUCE goes pear-shaped, you're left with a load of cash and what are hopefully good investments left, so your shirt remains largely on your back.

[spectoacc] 28/9/2018 07:23

Glad I never bought - but good luck holders.

They bought more LUCE (DIA warned today I see, though arguably for co-specific reasons), but if you think LUCE is going to go up - why not buy LUCE? Can't see any rationale for buying EPE other than the discount - which is always there.

Eg if LUCE goes nowhere, EPE goes nowhere. If LUCE doubles, EPE goes up by what, maybe a quarter if lucky? Hence buy LUCE, not the bag of rubbish that is EPE.

[value hound] 28/9/2018 07:10

Undervalued, more than half value (57%) in cash and some excellent-looking prospects, overall v.low ebitda multiple ... BUT, we're still overly-wedded to LUCE and dependent on its performance.

[horndean eagle] 29/8/2018 09:29

I know what you mean. I might ask the question if I ever get to speak to any of the other directors. the chairman is equally evasive.

[topvest] 14/8/2018 19:13

Don't you think its suspicious / at least a bit odd that he is so evasive...has he something to hide? Look at the Luceco annual report, EPE annual report, EPIC web-site, Luceco web-site etc. and you will see what I mean.

[horndean eagle] 14/8/2018 18:45

Giles is hard work to track down. Doesn't take calls etc. Almost mythical like creature. Board and the company need a shake up. It was absolutely crazy for them not to have banked a fair chunk of their LUCE position in the high 200s given how outsized it became in portfolio. ESO shouldn't be investing in businesses on p/e multiples of 20+

[topvest] 14/8/2018 18:33

I've been looking at Luceco and this, but have held off for now. Anyone got the run down on Giles Brand. He seems to have a reasonable record, but there are a couple of points that seem a bit odd / could be red flags:
1. Transparency. Over-complex structure and opaque PE structure suggests to me that there is a big carried interest where management are stripping out quite a bit of value.
2. Giles Brand refuses to ever have his picture taken...very odd. Please let me know if you can spot a picture of him anywhere in the public domain as I couldn't? Maybe the guy is just ugly / very shy but its a bit secretive & odd don't you think for a big hitter!
Interested if anyone knows better.

[spectoacc] 14/8/2018 14:35

Ironically, the rise in LUCE seems to have initially been caused by.... EPE buying more in the market! See 3rd August RNS's.

In terms of liquidity, would have to fancy LUCE over EPE, but the discount is pretty reasonable.