Enwell Energy Share Discussion Threads

[farrugia] 28/1/2022 19:30

winner? this will be taken out by management - big institutions already have 90%. They will simply takeover the company paying small shareholders a derisory premium over the current price while enjoying all the profits. This has happened with two other Ukrainian gas companies recently no?

[tigerbythetail] 28/1/2022 09:47

Just to put that cash pile into context - $92.5m = £69m pounds today.
Compare to Enwell's market cap of £79m today.
IMO, it's not quite as simple as to say the market is therefore valuing ENW's producing assets at £10m.
Provisos need to be made:
1. The $29m in Hryvna is at risk from currency movements (i.e. collapse of Hryvna if Russia invades Ukraine);
2. This is just the cash balance as of 31/12/2021. Knowing the trade receivables minus trade payables balance would give a fuller picture.
Essentially, Enwell is a gamble on the outcome of the current Russian intimidation of Ukraine. If the Russians do not invade, or military actions os limited to the Donbass, then I make Enwell to be a slam dunk winner. If the Russians try to change the government in Kiev or divide Ukraine in two, then things will get dicey for Enwell.
You pays your money, you takes your chances...

[tigerbythetail] 27/1/2022 14:19

From last but one RNS...
Cash Holdings
At 31 December 2021, the Company's cash resources were approximately $92.5 million, comprised of $29.0 million equivalent in Ukrainian Hryvnia and the balance of $63.5 million equivalent in a combination of US Dollars, Pounds Sterling and Euros. The cash resources have been significantly boosted by the high hydrocarbon prices achieved during the quarter, despite the lower production volumes.

Also, Russians still pursuing diplomacy, seemingly for at least two more weeks. It's not decisive, peace hasn't broken out yet for sure, but it is better than expected news.

[robizm] 24/1/2022 13:32

What is their cash situation after paying off recent capex? Can’t find a figure

[tigerbythetail] 24/1/2022 10:10

Share price falling off a cliff now...

[tigerbythetail] 21/1/2022 10:10

Cruch talks between Blinken and Lavrov today.
If they fail to produce an agreement, then the Russian moves on the ground over the next week or so will be telling.

[tigerbythetail] 18/1/2022 09:44

Any business in the Crimea that was perceived to have "anti-Russian" owners was confiscated after the seizure of the Crimea in 2014. This included a shipyard, a port, various factories, hotels, sanatoria and a film studio. Normally the seizure was carried out via corrupt court processes, with the registration of the business being cancelled and the assets transferred to a new "pro-Russian" owner. In a couple of cases it was done by armed men simply taking over.
The other risk factor to consider here is how much of Enwell's impressive cash pile is stored in Ukrainian banks, and how much of it is stored safely outside the country.
It's a complex equation here. Right now, it doesn't look too good; especially with the movements of Russian forces into Belarus, which clearly threatens Kiev.
But hopefully peace, love and understanding (or even plain old common sense) will somehow prevail.

[bo90] 18/1/2022 05:21

many don't realise that the kremlin stole 3 black sea oil rigs off the cause of crimea back in 2014

[tigerbythetail] 17/1/2022 19:15

This is the problem...

If Russia follows the battle plan outlined in this article, which was originally leaked by US Intelligence to the New York Times, the ENW's assets end up in the Russian occupation zone, east of the Dniepr.
And then what? Judging by the experience of businesses in the Crimea in 2014, nothing good for their original owners. To the victors the spoils, as the old saying goes.

[tigerbythetail] 14/1/2022 15:58

Cash pile is c. £70m, market cap is £120m.
So market value of ENW's Ukrainian assets is £50m (more or less).
It's binary. Either the Russians will invade and take all the wells; or they won't, and Enwell will keep its assets. I don't know what Putin is planning, but from info in the public domain I make that about a 50/50 call.
In short, this is either a bargain. Or it's not. Place your bets on red or black.

[moreearl] 14/1/2022 15:47

I'm not being funny, but with current market cap vs current cash pile, even if they have several fields/wells confiscated they're still cheap

[tigerbythetail] 14/1/2022 09:53

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/14/ukraine-massive-cyber-attack-government-websites-suspected-russian-hackers

[tigerbythetail] 14/1/2022 09:31

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/13/what-has-been-achieved-after-three-rounds-of-talks-on-ukraine

[tigerbythetail] 13/1/2022 14:41

I make this a surefire winner, as long as I could be sure that Russia won't invade Ukraine.
But I can't be sure about that. And if Russia does invade the Poltava region will be a target for occupation (it falls into the imaginary state Russia calls NovoRossiya), and (if the example of Crimea in 2014 is followed) Enwell's assets would be seized and soon have new Russian owners.
(All this can be said for fellow Poltava company FXPO as well).
Russia's military preparations have been incredibly serious. But the response from the West has also been surprisingly adequate. So, it comes down to trying to read Putin's mind. Will he risk an invasion or not?

[bocarugga85] 13/1/2022 08:57

If Russia were to invade, you'd have bigger things to worry about than your Enwell investment.

[officerdigby] 13/1/2022 08:19

There's a Russian Investor of ENW on LSE. Reckons its all BS by Mr Putin.

[lw425] 13/1/2022 08:18

Hope Russia don't invade as that would surely mean immediate suspension. I would expect the Kremlin to seize control of all energy assets making them the property of Russia. Nothing we can do about it.

[officerdigby] 13/1/2022 07:16

OK it does look like like they are going to sort out those wells that failed. Longer times testing the different production sections of new well... It's what they always do.Cash (finally!) Going up. Despite all the expenditure. Will EV reach zero next quarter?!

[vk1971] 30/12/2021 21:05

gas prices are going nuts in Ukraine now around $1500 -1800/Mm3 six months ago they were $249/Mm3. lets see what happens with new wells and other issues they are facing. this huge gas price should more than compensate

[officerdigby] 23/12/2021 15:21

Nit from what Mr P..said today.

[erbullion] 23/12/2021 13:06

Are tensions easing re Russia

[officerdigby] 29/11/2021 10:38

Yes well, only v. low volume sell off. So far! I would estimate production hit of circa ~ 1000-1200 boepd.Which is annoying.However if they can quickly fix MX109. And get the new well on drop in production will be plugged.Hopefully SV2 can be improved on previous performance too.However this is ENW. So slow steady..

[mstaub] 29/11/2021 09:57

MM's using the suspension to trigger S/L.

"The shut-in of the SV-2 and MEX-109 wells has impacted current production rates and, depending on the duration of the requisite remedial works, will potentially have a material impact on the Company's overall production volumes for Q4 2021. However, continued high hydrocarbons sales prices will help to offset the anticipated overall lower production volumes and the resultant impact on revenues in Q4 2021."

No brainer.

HOLD ON!

Snowing here today in Zurich...wishing I was back on Boracay!! :))

[mstaub] 22/11/2021 19:58

lol You Ukraine billionaire, we will not sell do your best you smf, eat another portion of potatoes. LOL

HOLD ON

His time is running out........

GLLTH

Yeba matta pisku MF!

LOL hahaha.

[moreearl] 19/11/2021 11:21

The consensus seems to be Russia is building up troops on the border with Ukraine to help their negotiating position on Nordstream 2. This bypasses gas going through Ukraine and has caused Ukraine to kick off.

Its a bit of a catch 22 of course!