When I wrote the article about Enwell and JKX on my blog a few months ago, I thought political shift would be a risk. Then with Russia amassing troops, I worried for a limited war that would either lead to the overthrow of the government, and less for the risk of territory loss that would include Enwell's facilities.
But a full scale attack didn't seem reasonable to me. When it happened I was pretty sure that Ukrainians will not surrender. Unless if the leadership gave up, or caught by surprise.
I believe that a main factor for this resistance is that people there know how an authoritarian regime looks like, and they would prefer to die than live under a new iron wall. So, if you are in this position you either leave, or fight to death.
So, the attack from Russia surprised me (I thought would be only in the east), but the scale of resistance not.
Anyway, for Enwell the only secure value is the cash staying in the balance sheet of the parent company in the UK. The rest is a big gamble. |
bought some |
Surely this is actually amazing news they could restart ANY production under these circumstances. Hope their staff are not at risk |
Certainly, I'm now convinced this about the offshore gas Ukraine has that they never have had the cash to exploit, and the resultant loss of Russia's petro-gas power. as much as anything else |
Thus marks the eerie beginning of 'the resource war' IMO. |
Hi bo90!
Unfortunately, events in the last couple of days have proved you right.
There will be nothing but death and destruction for the Ukraine. |
Just checked wiki he has Ukrainian citizenship bestowed by services to country. |
Tiger you are wrong, the full onslaught of kremlin hasn't begun yet. The nation will be obliterated. Kremlin doesn't recognise a ukrainian nation, language or culture so pure wipe out is on the cards |
Circumstances have changed so I've changed my mind a bit.
The Ukrainians are clearly winning the war to date. I don't think the Russians will get anywhere near Enwell's assets in Poltava now.
I also don't think the Russians will manage to seize much Ukrainian territory or to install a puppet government in Kiev. So not much expropriation risk.
(IMO, Putin has already lost the war, because of the reaction of the people of Ukraine to the invasion. It's just a question of how much damage Putin does before he leaves. Unfortunately, that could be a lot).
So I am much more positive about Enwell as an investment now. It's high risk for sure. But also potentially high return. |
30-40p hopefully next week once conflict calms/ceases |
Still holding on too. Nice rise back up again today. Lets hope all will be good in the end...... |
Oh well I have "Held on" for this long am willing to see it to the end.
My thought and prayers for the local Ukrainian population who have done nothing to deserves this, I hope still some country/ies will do the right thing and find a solution to put a stop to Putin's crusade.
Nice weekend et al. |
It's already been tampered with, blocked! |
Assets right in the probably attack line of Russian invasion... the questions are, a) will they be caught up in the war and become inoperable, and b) will Enwell be able to keep hold of them if the Russians take over. In this regard, the omens from Crimea in 2014 are not too good. |
Multiple shelling incidents (in breach of ceasefire) in Eastern Ukraine. |
Greg PANR IS CLIMBING, 1 POND 35 PENCE |
So far so good with de-escalation. Putin seems to have decided not to risk an invasion (for now).
ENW had £70m in cash at end of year. It will most likely be more by now. Compare to £94m mcap! |
Russian claims that their units are returning to base.
I'm not sure I entirely believe this, but if true, this would make ENW vastly undervalued. |
Based on my 25 years experience of work in Russia and Ukraine, IMO this article comes closer to the truth of the current tension than most reporting:
www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/30/analysis-ukraine-russia-vladimir-putin-uk-us-intelligence
There is geopolitical risk here, no question. But ENW's current share price drop is over-estimating it.
It's worth noting that the share price of ENW's neighbour in Poltava region, FXPO, has fallen far less. |
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