Actually, they can (and indeed could have) go(gone) private whenever they want and at any price point, with the share % held.However, the main man doesn't want to go private. And never did since 2012.He had to up his %'age when another oligarth sold out, from low 50s to now in 80s. He promised to try to reduce %age but hasn't been able to. So it's not the same as the other Ukraine gas plays where the main holders have joined together to effect an MBO enabled by recent cash flowsIt is possible his view changes then ENW holder's are at his mercy! |
Smart Energy (Cyprus) have c. 82% of share capital.
Yes, they may take it private. It would make sense for them to do so. But they'll have to pay 50p per share minimum.
I'd be happy enough with that. |
winner? this will be taken out by management - big institutions already have 90%. They will simply takeover the company paying small shareholders a derisory premium over the current price while enjoying all the profits. This has happened with two other Ukrainian gas companies recently no? |
Just to put that cash pile into context - $92.5m = £69m pounds today.
Compare to Enwell's market cap of £79m today.
IMO, it's not quite as simple as to say the market is therefore valuing ENW's producing assets at £10m.
Provisos need to be made:
1. The $29m in Hryvna is at risk from currency movements (i.e. collapse of Hryvna if Russia invades Ukraine);
2. This is just the cash balance as of 31/12/2021. Knowing the trade receivables minus trade payables balance would give a fuller picture.
Essentially, Enwell is a gamble on the outcome of the current Russian intimidation of Ukraine. If the Russians do not invade, or military actions os limited to the Donbass, then I make Enwell to be a slam dunk winner. If the Russians try to change the government in Kiev or divide Ukraine in two, then things will get dicey for Enwell.
You pays your money, you takes your chances... |
From last but one RNS...
Cash Holdings
At 31 December 2021, the Company's cash resources were approximately $92.5 million, comprised of $29.0 million equivalent in Ukrainian Hryvnia and the balance of $63.5 million equivalent in a combination of US Dollars, Pounds Sterling and Euros. The cash resources have been significantly boosted by the high hydrocarbon prices achieved during the quarter, despite the lower production volumes.
Also, Russians still pursuing diplomacy, seemingly for at least two more weeks. It's not decisive, peace hasn't broken out yet for sure, but it is better than expected news. |
What is their cash situation after paying off recent capex? Can’t find a figure |
Share price falling off a cliff now... |
Cruch talks between Blinken and Lavrov today.
If they fail to produce an agreement, then the Russian moves on the ground over the next week or so will be telling. |
Any business in the Crimea that was perceived to have "anti-Russian" owners was confiscated after the seizure of the Crimea in 2014. This included a shipyard, a port, various factories, hotels, sanatoria and a film studio. Normally the seizure was carried out via corrupt court processes, with the registration of the business being cancelled and the assets transferred to a new "pro-Russian" owner. In a couple of cases it was done by armed men simply taking over.
The other risk factor to consider here is how much of Enwell's impressive cash pile is stored in Ukrainian banks, and how much of it is stored safely outside the country.
It's a complex equation here. Right now, it doesn't look too good; especially with the movements of Russian forces into Belarus, which clearly threatens Kiev.
But hopefully peace, love and understanding (or even plain old common sense) will somehow prevail. |
many don't realise that the kremlin stole 3 black sea oil rigs off the cause of crimea back in 2014 |
This is the problem...
If Russia follows the battle plan outlined in this article, which was originally leaked by US Intelligence to the New York Times, the ENW's assets end up in the Russian occupation zone, east of the Dniepr.
And then what? Judging by the experience of businesses in the Crimea in 2014, nothing good for their original owners. To the victors the spoils, as the old saying goes. |
Cash pile is c. £70m, market cap is £120m.
So market value of ENW's Ukrainian assets is £50m (more or less).
It's binary. Either the Russians will invade and take all the wells; or they won't, and Enwell will keep its assets. I don't know what Putin is planning, but from info in the public domain I make that about a 50/50 call.
In short, this is either a bargain. Or it's not. Place your bets on red or black. |
I'm not being funny, but with current market cap vs current cash pile, even if they have several fields/wells confiscated they're still cheap |
www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/14/ukraine-massive-cyber-attack-government-websites-suspected-russian-hackers |
www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/13/what-has-been-achieved-after-three-rounds-of-talks-on-ukraine |
I make this a surefire winner, as long as I could be sure that Russia won't invade Ukraine.
But I can't be sure about that. And if Russia does invade the Poltava region will be a target for occupation (it falls into the imaginary state Russia calls NovoRossiya), and (if the example of Crimea in 2014 is followed) Enwell's assets would be seized and soon have new Russian owners.
(All this can be said for fellow Poltava company FXPO as well).
Russia's military preparations have been incredibly serious. But the response from the West has also been surprisingly adequate. So, it comes down to trying to read Putin's mind. Will he risk an invasion or not? |
If Russia were to invade, you'd have bigger things to worry about than your Enwell investment. |
There's a Russian Investor of ENW on LSE. Reckons its all BS by Mr Putin. |
Hope Russia don't invade as that would surely mean immediate suspension. I would expect the Kremlin to seize control of all energy assets making them the property of Russia. Nothing we can do about it. |
OK it does look like like they are going to sort out those wells that failed. Longer times testing the different production sections of new well... It's what they always do.Cash (finally!) Going up. Despite all the expenditure. Will EV reach zero next quarter?! |
gas prices are going nuts in Ukraine now around $1500 -1800/Mm3 six months ago they were $249/Mm3. lets see what happens with new wells and other issues they are facing. this huge gas price should more than compensate |
Nit from what Mr P..said today. |
Are tensions easing re Russia |
Yes well, only v. low volume sell off. So far! I would estimate production hit of circa ~ 1000-1200 boepd.Which is annoying.However if they can quickly fix MX109. And get the new well on drop in production will be plugged.Hopefully SV2 can be improved on previous performance too.However this is ENW. So slow steady.. |
MM's using the suspension to trigger S/L.
"The shut-in of the SV-2 and MEX-109 wells has impacted current production rates and, depending on the duration of the requisite remedial works, will potentially have a material impact on the Company's overall production volumes for Q4 2021. However, continued high hydrocarbons sales prices will help to offset the anticipated overall lower production volumes and the resultant impact on revenues in Q4 2021."
No brainer.
HOLD ON!
Snowing here today in Zurich...wishing I was back on Boracay!! :)) |
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