Empyrean Energy Share Discussion Threads

[lazarus2010] 05/5/2022 10:32

oilforex5 May '22 - 10:16 - 48260 of 48262
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Owen, this was Cenkos view -

"We value Mako using a US$6/mcf long-term gas price, with first gas in 2023 and a 10%
discount factor at US$18.4m or 2.8p/share. We include a 30% risking to account for a
potential commercial, cost and timing risks, with our unrisked valuation increasing to
US$26.2m or 4.0p/share.
A key sensitivity to our valuation is the gas price, at US$8/mcf our valuation of Mako
increases to US$31.1m or 4.7p/share (risked) or US$44.4m or 6.8p/share unrisked."
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oilforex, thanks for posting. I had been asking on the bb for somebody to find this BN valuation as I remembered they had quoted $ figures.

With the price at $6 unrisked = $26.2mln, but at $8 it jumps to $44.4mln which is a $18.2mln jump. If gas prices are at $10 then the valuation should jump another $18.2mln = $62.6mln. Add another $2 = $80.8mln

$62.6 x 0.8 = £50mln
$80.8 x 0.8 = £72mln

now we are talking ballpark figures for current gas prices in Asia!!

I think £60mln might be a reasonable estimate, a lot depends on who is currently in the market to acquire gas assets

£20mln for Topaz, £40mln dividend!

[10owen] 05/5/2022 10:21

Oilforex it will be interesting to see their valuation post the GSAs.You pays your money etc.Good luck.

[lazarus2010] 05/5/2022 10:21

SKK Migas Accepted Mako Gas in Place for updated Mako POD
GROSS (100%) GIIP (BSCF) Updated
Reservoir Low Best High
Upper Sand 358 525 687
Lower Sand 26 41 78
Total 384 566 766

Those are the figures approved by SKK Migas

Best estimate of 566BSCFG

Recovery Factor is typically 80% for gas

EME share c. 38.5BSCFG

Current gas prices in Asia for LNG are in excess of $20/mmscfg

At 10% for an in the ground price, that's a paltry $2/mmscfg

That's $77mln

The $ has strengthened against the £ to 0.8

That's £61.6mln

At $1 in the ground it is still £30.8mln

Just a bit higher than the current market cap!!

Anybody coming up with figures of $10-15mln have lost the plot and are simply scaremongering.

aimho dyor niai

[oilforex] 05/5/2022 10:16

Owen, this was Cenkos view -"We value Mako using a US$6/mcf long-term gas price, with first gas in 2023 and a 10% discount factor at US$18.4m or 2.8p/share. We include a 30% risking to account for apotential commercial, cost and timing risks, with our unrisked valuation increasing to US$26.2m or 4.0p/share.A key sensitivity to our valuation is the gas price, at US$8/mcf our valuation of Mako increases to US$31.1m or 4.7p/share (risked) or US$44.4m or 6.8p/share unrisked."

[helpfull] 05/5/2022 10:11

Tickety Tock! Window shock!

"Topaz well drilled within the next drilling weather window in the Pearl River Mouth Basin in 1H 2023"

Anyone know why the next drilling window doesn't start in the fall? Much like last year and the last drilling window. The "drill in December" and "don't be surprised if the spud is Dec 25" did happen didn't it? What was all that about? Can't wait for Topaz. That sampan tracker kept me glued to my screen. Best thing since sliced bread.

Be careful.

[10owen] 05/5/2022 09:26

That's the $64,000 question Oilforex.I have no more info on its value than you or anyone else on here but looking at the size of the field and the current economics it has to be worth in my view multiples of the current share price I can understand why some are selling because they have lost faith after the shock of Jade but I do think Duyung has significant value to us.As I have said many times before I just wish it had been sold sooner as it would have underpinned the share price at a higher level.Lets hope we get more reassuring news soon with regards to its value and more info on Topaz.

[oilforex] 05/5/2022 09:04

10owen. Interested in what you think Duyung is worth?

[10owen] 05/5/2022 09:02

We've had a duster and I am as hacked off as everyone else but for Duyung to suddenly be worth a fraction of what people believed before the China drill I dont get.Yes it may put a bit more pressure to get a deal done but not at any cost.TK has to say hes going to drill Topaz or lose the license.Theres a lot of water to flow under the bridge before then.

If Topaz is shown to be compelling to drill then I would expect other parties to be involved daft not to after Jade.If it isnt and we cant get a partner interested then we will still have Duyung cash which as Judi has alluded to earlier a number of folks including myself would prefer it to be distributed to shareholders.

We need to see more details on Topaz and the Duyung numbers before really deciding which is the best option for us.Its still raw and hurting at the moment and until we get all the facts decisions are being made more on emotion.I am going to sit back try and stay as chilled as I can wait for more information from the company.As I said the other day I have added at these levels because I do think Duyungs value alone is worth significantly more than the current share price Time will tell.Gla.

[oilforex] 05/5/2022 09:02

Were published on the 19/04/21 last year.

[the sage] 05/5/2022 08:51

I believe that Coro's results are late. Are they waiting for Duyung news?

[simonsmithiv] 05/5/2022 08:47

Wise ones loading up

[simonsmithiv] 05/5/2022 08:47

Usual types trying to talk it down after an 80% fall, sad and boringly predictable

[aimomniscient] 05/5/2022 08:43

Blue,It seems some speculators have changed their tune as to its value.If true there will be some painful dilution in the pipeline at around the 1.25p to 1.5p mark to drill Jade.Personally, I think the price is gravitating towards that already and once people tumble that and start selling knowing it has the possibility of going there - it will get there.

[oilforex] 05/5/2022 08:42

Whatever happens here now is just pure speculation. Having a reality check -1) No one seems to have much of a clue in the value of the Indonesian assets or when they might materialise. Maybe it underpins current share price, maybe not. 2) Unless something comes out of the Jade results that nails on Topaz, I'm struggling to see much positive sentiment around funding for it. Success is still less than a coin flip, maybe less following the recent drill, something investors should be mindful of. Also it wasn't the best funding option last time, let's face it.3) Scam loss of funds still not resolved. Are we going to have to stump up more funds to cover this?4) No update on any of the other licenses. Mothballed or disregarded completely?5) We currently have a speculative 15m mcap, near to zero cash, awful sentiment and I would assume Tom's credibility has crashed.Trying to look for positives but struggling at the moment. We are in a period of high oil and gas prices and after years of trying we have no production, no cash, an unquantified asset, a string of failed projects and a few bits of paper licenses with no money to action.Kind of hoping that Tom can pull something out of the hat as that seems his speciality, rather than returning shareholder value.

[blueblood] 05/5/2022 08:15

No way is Duying only worth £15m to us unless that's fire sale price to sell it today imho

[abergele] 05/5/2022 07:53

Thanks JJ and Maltby for your thoughts this morning,,
We can but just HOPE now into the future...g.l.a.Lth's

[maltby2002] 05/5/2022 07:33

We all know the risks in investing in O and G companies and we are all responsible for the investment decisions we make. I am pleased we have not written off our China assets and nor apparently have CNOC. I retain faith in Gaz and Tom and look forward to a potential Topaz drill next year with a GSA to look forward to in the meantime. Best wishes to all LTH and hope that we all recover our losses in time

[buzzzzzzzz] 05/5/2022 07:14

AIMO
In reality, it's a long game now, especially as now the value at Duyung according to several 'in the know' is not quote the 50m once perceived but nearer 15m - or the current market cap. A bit of a kick in the balls to some who followed that character who led wveryone up the garden path withh his videos and valuations.

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You have been spending too much time listening to some of the idiots on Telegram.

No one knows what Duyung is worth and until the terms of the GSA are revealed, and there is no certainty that it will not be deemed commercially sensitive and redacted.

I'll stick my neck out and say it's worth more than 15m

[bengal1] 05/5/2022 07:12

JJ, Thankyou for your views. There are so many posters who just dish it out to others when views are different. That's why I decided not to post whilst drilling.

[blakieboy7] 05/5/2022 06:33

RNS forced by holders?! What an absolute pillock! Another one for the filter

[aimomniscient] 04/5/2022 23:52

I believe today's RNS was forced by holders insisting the board release something.It did the trick, another good volume day, and holders were able to release some at a higher price.In reality, it's a long game now, especially as now the value at Duyung according to several 'in the know' is not quote the 50m once perceived but nearer 15m - or the current market cap. A bit of a kick in the balls to some who followed that character who led wveryone up the garden path withh his videos and valuations.Still, if invested its a long road, placings and lower prices to come before Topaz is drilled next year.Derisked 80% of my holding here today, will be put to better use elsewhere and kept a few runners just in case.

[mhfrancis] 04/5/2022 15:14

123 wells drilled in irish waters and they struck one oil well yet to be developed two gas finds. In norway they after thirty two wells esso found a oil field un commercial so eme are in good company very high risk high reward like betting an outsider in the national if you are not in you can not win Topaz is a nice name for an outsider gla

[rickyhatton] 04/5/2022 15:02

"Implications for the Topaz Prospect

The 2017 seismic data analysis matured two prospects - Jade and Topaz - along the western block boundary. Pre-Jade drilling, comprehensive analysis confirmed Topaz as a large and genuine exploration target in Block 29/11, with Gaffney Cline independently assessing a target in place oil estimate of 506 mmbbls (Mean case) of oil and an upside of 891 mmbbls (P10 case) with a 30% Geological Chance of Success ("GCoS").

The Jade well data has validated Post Stack Acoustic Impedance conclusions for reservoir and seal facies at the Topaz prospect. At the same time, the penetration of reservoir top within the pre-drill depth prognosis confirms the reliability of the depth conversion approach Empyrean used and confirms the trap definition of the Topaz prospect. As a result, the Jade well results have helped provide confidence in Reservoir, Trap and Seal of the Topaz prospect.

Similar to Jade, effective hydrocarbon charge has been recognised as a key remaining geological risk for the Topaz prospect.

Jade had relied on relatively long-distance direct oil migration from Baiyun Sag East source rock that is located over 26 km to the south. The Topaz prospect relies on more local oil charging mechanisms. Firstly, it has the potential to be charged by the newly identified - Baiyun Sag North - located less than 6 km to the southeast of Topaz. The Baiyun Sag North kitchen was identified by Empyrean's own 3D seismic data, is entirely covered by this 3D and provides the mapping of direct migration pathways to the Topaz prospect. Secondly, cooperation between CNOOC and Empyrean on the respective data sets shows there is a potential migration pathway from the CNOOC LH16-2 discovery well spilling on to the Topaz prospect."

[rickyhatton] 04/5/2022 14:57

Its an early preliminary assessment, but many positives for Topaz in the learning analysis from Jade, as applied to Topaz, in that detailed RNS.
If CNOOC are as keen as their joint initial analysis suggests they would be, it could be easy for TK to cut a deal with CNOOC on additional pre-drill share and/or post drill share with a commercial success, or pre-determined fixed price buy out on commercial post drill success, etc. Lots of options for TK/GB to cut a deal with CNOOC imho