Empyrean Energy Share Discussion Threads

[crosseyed] 05/5/2022 15:08

Re-reading the RNS of 4 May, I noticed this as part of the summary regarding Jade:

The final log data confirmed several elements of the pre-drill prognosis:
-- 292 metres of excellent quality reservoir was intersected;
...

Can anyone comment on what that means? Does it imply the presence of hydrocarbons? Or perhaps just the potential of such?

c

[lazarus2010] 05/5/2022 14:35

oakville, no chance imho. With a number of large investors, if cash was needed to keep the lights on something would be sorted. Unfortunately Duyung monetisation has come the wrong side of the Jade well, but it will be coming. Whatever we get for it would be enough to cover all existing debts and provide a big cash injection into the company.

[oakville] 05/5/2022 14:29

Could they just fold?

[judijudi] 05/5/2022 14:18

It’s hardly surprising is it
We owe money
We have no money
Raise incoming
imho

[bungeetrader] 05/5/2022 14:02

FFS!
This is depressing......

[helpfull] 05/5/2022 13:40

Can anyone smell a cash raise?

Be careful.

[oilforex] 05/5/2022 12:52

Here's the full piece.Largest Undeveloped Gas Field In West Natuna Basin – Following a highly successful drilling campaign in Q4/19, GCA significantly increased the 2C resources at the Mako gas field by 79% to 495Bcf, making the Mako gas field the largest undeveloped gas field in the West Natuna Basin. Further, in December 2020, Empyrean announced that the Mako Plan of Development (POD) has been updated, with SKK Migas accepting the significantly uplifted estimates of gas in place (GIIP).Situated close to the West Natuna Pipeline System (WNTS) and the well established markets of Indonesia and Singapore, the Mako gas field is a strategically important resource. A Heads-of-Agreement with a gas buyer in Singapore is already in place, with the forward plan to submit a revised POD to the Indonesian Government and the execution of a gas sales agreement.At a 76.5% working interest, we believe Conrad will be looking to farm-down its working interest prior to development. As part of Empyrean's farm-in deal with Conrad, signed in 2017, any sale or part sale that is offered to Conrad must be offered to Empyrean pro-rata. Similar to Empyrean, we believe that the best deal on the Mako gas field will be obtained by dealing at the 100% level, with the scale of the project now likely to attract participants who may want a significant stake and/or operatorship.may want a significant stake and/or operatorship.We value Mako using a US$6/mcf long-term gas price, with first gas in 2023 and a 10% discount factor at US$18.4m or 2.8p/share. We include a 30% risking to account for apotential commercial, cost and timing risks, with our unrisked valuation increasing to US$26.2m or 4.0p/share.A key sensitivity to our valuation is the gas price, at US$8/mcf our valuation of Mako increases to US$31.1m or 4.7p/share (risked) or US$44.4m or 6.8p/share unrisked.

[oilforex] 05/5/2022 12:44

Just been out. Will take a look now.

[buffythebuffoon] 05/5/2022 12:37

If the value is £60m why would a buyer pay £60m?

There’s a lot of naivety on this board.

Buffy

[blakieboy7] 05/5/2022 12:34

18% down ffs

[lowsulpher1] 05/5/2022 12:23

Hi all we need a update on the sale of Duyung to get the share price moving upwards come on conrad give us a up date on the sale where its at.

[stewart4990] 05/5/2022 11:28

Laz, George,

Yep I would vote for that when, if Duyung is £60M, 6p per share.

[georgesorrow] 05/5/2022 10:58

Laz: £20mln for Topaz, £40mln dividend!
What a beautiful dream. I'd be marginally up with a 6p divi on my investment, with all my shares intact for a free carry on Topaz, the big one. We can but hope.

[lazarus2010] 05/5/2022 10:54

oilforex, can you check the gas in place figures for the Cenkos BN you quoted from? Might be that the rns update with MKK Migas approved figures might be more than in the BN?

[helpfull] 05/5/2022 10:41

Is he in jail? What have you heard?

Be careful.

[lazarus2010] 05/5/2022 10:34

ps. anybody getting deja vu from the period preceding the last payment out? share price was on the floor and Tom came through with a deal to sell the assets and was forced into issuing a capital return. I don't think he would need to be forced this time, as it is the only way he can take money out of the company to get his investment and a lot more back. If he sells shares it undermines the share price This way is a get out of jail card for him...imho of course as I wouldn't want to be telling the CEO how to run his business!!!!

[10owen] 05/5/2022 10:34

That sounds like a plan Laz.Lets hope TK is on the same page.

[lazarus2010] 05/5/2022 10:32

oilforex5 May '22 - 10:16 - 48260 of 48262
0 0 0
Owen, this was Cenkos view -

"We value Mako using a US$6/mcf long-term gas price, with first gas in 2023 and a 10%
discount factor at US$18.4m or 2.8p/share. We include a 30% risking to account for a
potential commercial, cost and timing risks, with our unrisked valuation increasing to
US$26.2m or 4.0p/share.
A key sensitivity to our valuation is the gas price, at US$8/mcf our valuation of Mako
increases to US$31.1m or 4.7p/share (risked) or US$44.4m or 6.8p/share unrisked."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
oilforex, thanks for posting. I had been asking on the bb for somebody to find this BN valuation as I remembered they had quoted $ figures.

With the price at $6 unrisked = $26.2mln, but at $8 it jumps to $44.4mln which is a $18.2mln jump. If gas prices are at $10 then the valuation should jump another $18.2mln = $62.6mln. Add another $2 = $80.8mln

$62.6 x 0.8 = £50mln
$80.8 x 0.8 = £72mln

now we are talking ballpark figures for current gas prices in Asia!!

I think £60mln might be a reasonable estimate, a lot depends on who is currently in the market to acquire gas assets

£20mln for Topaz, £40mln dividend!

[10owen] 05/5/2022 10:21

Oilforex it will be interesting to see their valuation post the GSAs.You pays your money etc.Good luck.

[lazarus2010] 05/5/2022 10:21

SKK Migas Accepted Mako Gas in Place for updated Mako POD
GROSS (100%) GIIP (BSCF) Updated
Reservoir Low Best High
Upper Sand 358 525 687
Lower Sand 26 41 78
Total 384 566 766

Those are the figures approved by SKK Migas

Best estimate of 566BSCFG

Recovery Factor is typically 80% for gas

EME share c. 38.5BSCFG

Current gas prices in Asia for LNG are in excess of $20/mmscfg

At 10% for an in the ground price, that's a paltry $2/mmscfg

That's $77mln

The $ has strengthened against the £ to 0.8

That's £61.6mln

At $1 in the ground it is still £30.8mln

Just a bit higher than the current market cap!!

Anybody coming up with figures of $10-15mln have lost the plot and are simply scaremongering.

aimho dyor niai

[oilforex] 05/5/2022 10:16

Owen, this was Cenkos view -"We value Mako using a US$6/mcf long-term gas price, with first gas in 2023 and a 10% discount factor at US$18.4m or 2.8p/share. We include a 30% risking to account for apotential commercial, cost and timing risks, with our unrisked valuation increasing to US$26.2m or 4.0p/share.A key sensitivity to our valuation is the gas price, at US$8/mcf our valuation of Mako increases to US$31.1m or 4.7p/share (risked) or US$44.4m or 6.8p/share unrisked."

[helpfull] 05/5/2022 10:11

Tickety Tock! Window shock!

"Topaz well drilled within the next drilling weather window in the Pearl River Mouth Basin in 1H 2023"

Anyone know why the next drilling window doesn't start in the fall? Much like last year and the last drilling window. The "drill in December" and "don't be surprised if the spud is Dec 25" did happen didn't it? What was all that about? Can't wait for Topaz. That sampan tracker kept me glued to my screen. Best thing since sliced bread.

Be careful.

[10owen] 05/5/2022 09:26

That's the $64,000 question Oilforex.I have no more info on its value than you or anyone else on here but looking at the size of the field and the current economics it has to be worth in my view multiples of the current share price I can understand why some are selling because they have lost faith after the shock of Jade but I do think Duyung has significant value to us.As I have said many times before I just wish it had been sold sooner as it would have underpinned the share price at a higher level.Lets hope we get more reassuring news soon with regards to its value and more info on Topaz.

[oilforex] 05/5/2022 09:04

10owen. Interested in what you think Duyung is worth?