Empyrean Energy Share Discussion Threads

[noobiedoobie] 18/12/2021 14:06

I just wait for when the MMs are ready to make a market for the EME so it's irrelevant whatever any of us think. MMs job is to make £ from us. When they need us, we'll know about it.

[judijudi] 18/12/2021 13:50

The destiny of EME is not in the hands of shareholders
It’s in the hands of the drill bit

[judijudi] 18/12/2021 13:47

buffy,
Absolutely correct

[noobiedoobie] 18/12/2021 13:20

A simple volume based buying strategy for cost averagers would look something like this

If daily volume is 2m, call it 2000k, or 2000 units

Assign unit size anything you want as per your own £ pot. Buy when your cumulative £ value gets to suitable buy value or at whatever price you prefer.

I let you know when I lock in freebies

And I been testing this strategy since adopted it in July and had 28 wins in variety of companies in prices of 0.2p to 35p range mostly. Robust enough for me.

Like mr Tom said in July RNS, destiny of EME is down to the shareholders/investors. As we now have established that volume has to exceed 20 day average volume to create price curve, then that's something we can take control of.

Price movement is obviously cyclical. There's really no need to deramp any company between cycles. MMs do it to relax average volume, get rid of weak holders, and set up techs ready for next leg up. Seasoned investors know the drill.

Now in June 2017 I stopped building freebies and price after that 10 bagged once newsflow ramped up. Tell you what, I'll carry on building freebies indefinitely.

[buffythebuffoon] 18/12/2021 13:05

“When you've had a symbiotic relationship with a company for 13 years, I don't think I need to start questioning the boss.”

Surely that’s exactly when you should!

🤔

Buffy

[noobiedoobie] 18/12/2021 12:22

Whoever sold last placing in summer under 7p should've held for the eventual 8-9p! Placees really have no idea how to get the most for their £. Newsflash, try holding instead of wetting your panties when 2 people in a row sell. Got no balls that's the problem.

No idea why I need to be cautious. Cost average investing takes into account variety of uncertainties so whatever. My first buy was in November 2008. When you've had a symbiotic relationship with a company for 13 years, I don't think I need to start questioning the boss.

But sure, if you're fearful of uncertainties, don't buy, then average volume will drop and will need less volume to drive it up next price cycle

[wcj] 18/12/2021 11:11

Expanding on 43412, look at things from the viewpoint of those who took the shares in the placing:

Some will want to make a quick turn of 0.25p on the shares and sell them on in a week or so.
Some will want to wait until drilling starts and have a time frame of 2 months, with a turn of 100%.
Some will want to wait for China results and have a time of 4 months, with a target of 1000%.

Current selling will be by the first of these.

If the share price starts to rise immediately, instead of selling out, would they hold on for a bit of a ride and see themselves well-rewarded by a turn of 2.5p rather than .25p? Quite possibly, in which case it becomes a self-fulfilling rise. Hence my comment about shaking the bottle.

(Glass half-full, rather than my usual glass half-empty)

[helpfull] 18/12/2021 10:44

Tickety Tock! Head on the block!

Why all these calls for PR by anaemic shareholders? Do they still want to top slice and get a free ride on the back of naive investors? There is a 32% COS. Increased to 41% by "internal" calculations. Time to face up to reality. The rollercoaster ride hasn't started yet. And why would management want to answer questions about fraud and why a deposit was paid and not checked it had been received before paying the mobilisation costs and what new procedures have been put in place before paying the final instalment for the drill?

Be careful.

[wcj] 18/12/2021 10:37

Overhang from the placing to be cleared.

We do not know how many shares. Part of it may be removed if the new holders feel that their 6.3p sales could be held for a while to generate a higher price and a significantly better turn.

New PR or RNS would achieve this and might shake the bottle. Keep it coming, TK.

[lowsulpher1] 18/12/2021 10:22

Well done Tom Kelly on getting the funding for the drilling next year now is the time for you and Gaza get the PR Machine in motion and get the institutions interested in the company before DUYNG is sold and the drilling starts in what is known as a world class Exploration oil block Keep up the good work.

[the donald] 18/12/2021 10:02

PR please Mr Kelly

[nametrade] 17/12/2021 22:23

Maybe of some interest to some. Now the drill is getting closer.

hxxps://onepetro.org/SEGAM/proceedings-abstract/SEG15/All-SEG15/SEG-2015-5910718/65454

Borrowed from another board of a share I'm interested in.

[starzerus] 17/12/2021 21:19

Welcome back BTG man. Good timing.

[lazarus2010] 17/12/2021 18:07

Bad news for some, potentially good news for us as it keeps the pressure on the GSA partner to get a deal done at top end of pricing band imho


Spiking EU Gas Prices Push Up Asian LNG. Much to the chagrin of Asian LNG buyers, soaring spot gas prices in Europe - trading some $12 per mmBtu above Asian LNG at $48/mmBtu equivalent - have been inevitably pushing up spot LNG quotes in the Asia Pacific, already at $45 per mmBtu.

But possibly bad news for Europe as Germany will need to source gas elsewhere, maybe keep using pipeline through Ukraine?

Germany Doesn’t Expect Nord Stream 2 Launch Soon. Germany’s energy regulator BNetzA said it does not expect the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, owned by Gazprom (MCX:GAZP), to be launched in the first half of 2022, sending European gas prices to all-time highs.

[btgman] 17/12/2021 18:04

I have watched Empyrean from a far for a long time post Sugarloaf days as I wanted to see China funded now this is the case I have re-invested with a modest holding.

Spent a good while looking through todays broker note and the numbers are compelling for many reasons, Duyung offers a decent downside protection from todays price. The upside ranges from significant to compelling to staggering.

The coming weeks are going to be a exciting to say the least. Given the risked valuation on Jade this looks massively undervalued before any consideration is given to Topaz or Pearl. Once drilling starts this will motor.

AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[lazarus2010] 17/12/2021 17:57

This is the note minus charts, pictures etc.

Empyrean Energy Plc Fully Funded High Impact Drilling Empyrean has secured funding of £7.623m through an equity placing and convertible loan note issue, fully funding the cost of the Jade exploration well (on a dry hole basis), which is scheduled to be drilled in late December 2021. The Jade exploration well is one of most exciting offshore wells to be drilled by a junior oil and gas company in 2021, targeting mean oil in place volumes of 225mmbbls and a P10 in place upside of 395mmbbls. The Jade prospect is the first of three identified prospects within Block 29/11, with the three prospects having a combined mean in place volume of 884mmbbls and a P10 in place upside of 1,588mmbbls. Success as Jade would significantly de-risk the 659mmbbls of oil in place at the Topaz and Pearl prospects and lead to an estimated c3.8x increase in our risked valuation to 43.4p. Unrisked, we value the Pmean resources at Jade at c96.4p. ◼ Funding High Impact Drilling – Empyrean has issued c60.4m new shares at a price of 6.0p per share to raise £3.623m. The placing price represents a 16.67% discount to the price of the Company’s shares as at close of business on 15 December 2021 and a 15.44% discount to the 30-day VWAP. In conjunction with the placing, Empyrean has entered into a convertible loan note agreement for gross proceeds of £4m. The convertible loan note has a maturity date of 16 December 2022 and a conversion price of 8p per share. The convertible note bears interest at a rate of 10% per annum and is secured by a senior first ranking charge over the Company and its 8.5% interest in the development ready Duyung PSC and Mako gas field. The proceeds of the placing and the loan note fully fund the drilling of the Jade prospect on a dry hole basis, though further funding will be required should the Company encounter an oil column that requires testing. Empyrean has highlighted that it has currently several further funding alternatives under consideration should the drilling be successful. The conversion price of the convertible note represents a 11.11% premium to price of the Company’s shares as at close of business on 15th December 2021 and a 12.75% premium to the 30-day VWAP. ◼ Substantial Rerating Potential on Success – Exploration success at Jade would see our risked valuation of the Jade prospect increase from 11.4p currently, (88% overall risk) to an estimated 43.4p, a c3.8x increase. Success at Jade would also significantly de-risk both the adjacent Topaz and Pearl prospects. Unrisked (the point at which there is 0% risk) our valuation on the Pmean resources at Jade would increase to c96.4p. With all but one of the adjacent CNOOC discoveries “filled to spill” their recoverable resources are close to the P1/P10 oil in place volumes. Assuming a P10 oil in place volume for the Jade prospect increases our unrisked valuation from an estimated c96.4p to c.152.3p.

◼ A Key Well to Watch – The Jade prospect is one of the most exciting offshore wells to be drilled by a junior oil and gas explorer globally over the next 12-18 months, targeting gross mean in place potential of 225mmbbls and a P10 in place upside of 395mmbbls. Gaffney, Cline & Associates (GCA) assigned the Jade prospect a 32% GCoS, with subsequent studies by Empyrean focussing on further de-risking the Jade prospect increasing the GCoS to 41%. 3D seismic data indicates that there is a classic “fill to spill” geological setup in the basin, and a robust regional seal, that provides the Jade prospect with a very real possibility of being filled to its P10 potential or better – similar to the nearby CNOOC discoveries. The 3D seismic data also revealed the presence of well-defined gas clouds in the overburden above the Jade prospect – analogous to the CNOOC discoveries. Post stack seismic inversion studies, completed in 2020 confirmed the potential for a worldclass carbonate reservoir at the Jade prospect, with porosities of between 20-30% and 1 Darcy permeabilities. Similar to the nearby CNOOC discoveries, any oil is expected to be between 38-41 API. Combined, these attributes indicate the potential for a high quality reservoir with excellent recovery rates. ◼ Substantial Follow-On Potential – The Jade prospect is the first of three identified prospects within Block 29/11, which also contains the Topaz and Pearl prospects. The combined audited mean in place potential of all three prospects is 884mmbbls and a P10 in place upside of 1,588mmbbls. Table 1: Block 29/11 Potential Prospect P90 P50 P10 Mean GCA GCoS EME GCoS Jade 93 187 395 225 32% 41% Topaz 211 434 891 506 30% 35% Pearl 38 121 302 153 15% 15% Source: Empyrean Energy ◼ Cyber Fraud Incident – The Company has been informed that its payment of the 10% deposit for the integrated drilling contract with COSL and the rig mobilisation costs have not been received by COSL and appears to have been redirected to an unknown third party as a result of a sophisticated cyber fraud perpetrated against COSL and Empyrean. Empyrean is working with its bank, the recipient bank and the relevant police authorities, with recovery actions having been commenced. It is not known at this stage whether the full funds will be recovered. While these investigations take their course, COSL and Empyrean have agreed to continue with drilling preparations activities without delay. The ability for Empyrean to remain on-track with the drilling of the Jade well is testament to the Company’s strong relationship with COSL and CNOOC. The Jade Prospect Post Stack Seismic Inversion Project In May 2020, Empyrean completed crucial technical work aimed at addressing the quality of the reservoirs at the Jade and Topaz prospects. Whilst geological studies and analysis completed earlier provided technical confirmation of potentially excellent quality reservoir at Jade and Topaz prospects, the Company decided to undertake a post stack seismic inversion project to quantitatively assess the reservoir quality. The main aim of the seismic inversion project was comprehensive reservoir characterisation, with particular focus on the Jade and Topaz prospects, by combining existing well log data with 3D seismic data to generate an acoustic impedance dataset. Analysis of this nature has been used to successfully interpret the physical rock properties of reservoirs globally, in particular lithology, porosity and thickness of reservoir. In order to achieve the most comprehensive and robust results from the seismic invers project, Empyrean approached CNOOC to gain access to the log data of a crucial well, LH ion 1d, located c12km southwest of the Jade prospect in a permit operated by CNOOC, resulting in increased technical confidence in the results of the seismic inver23 sion project. The LH23111d well intersected both carbonate and sandstone reservoirs with oil pay. Analysis of the seismic inversion data confirmed potentially excellent reservoir properties with porosities in the range of 2030% and 1 Darcy permeability at both the Jade and Topaz prospects. The study reduced the risk associated with reservoir presence and quality, and therefore increases the GCoS of the Block 29/11 prospects. Figure 1 : Carbonate BuildUp at Jade and Topaz Source: Empy rean Energy Gas Clouds On good quality 3D seismic data, the presence of gas clouds has been used as an effective exploration tool in prolific basins worldwide including the North Sea, Gulf of Mexico and the Malaysian Sabah Basin, resulting in the discovery of significant amounts of oil. In May 2019, Empyrean announced the results of the comprehensive analysis of its 3D seismic data acquired in 2017 as well as that of CNOOC’s 3D seismic data to the immediate west of Block 29/11. The analysis confir med the presence of welldefined low reflectivity zones (gas clouds) in the overburden strata above the Jade and Topaz prospects. Empyrean’s analysis also confirmed the presence of similar gas clouds in the overburden of the large CNOOC oil discoveries located close to Block 29/11.
Figure 2 : Topaz and Jade Gas Clouds Source: Empyrean Energy At the same time, three dry wells drilled by CNOOC in proximity to these discoveries have been analysed, with the 3D seismic data over these wells confirming the lack of any gas clouds. Similar technical work was carried out over two dry wells in Block 29/11, drilled prior to Empyrean’s involvement in the block, with both wells confirming the lack of any gas clouds in the overburden. As a resul t, it is Empyrean's interpretation that the presence of welldefined gas clouds in the overburden on both the Jade and Topaz structures mitigates the exploration risk on these prospects significantly.

[lazarus2010] 17/12/2021 17:08

The reason why we are here... extract from the Cenkos note

Substantial Rerating Potential on Success – Exploration success at Jade would see our risked valuation of the Jade prospect increase from 11.4p currently, (88% overall risk) to an estimated 43.4p, a c3.8x increase. Success at Jade would also significantly de-risk both the adjacent Topaz and Pearl prospects. Unrisked (the point at which there is 0% risk) our valuation on the Pmean resources at Jade would increase to c96.4p. With all but one of the adjacent CNOOC discoveries “filled to spill” their recoverable resources are close to the P1/P10 oil in place volumes. Assuming a P10 oil in place volume for the Jade prospect increases our unrisked valuation from an estimated c96.4p to c.152.3p.

[michaelhfrancis] 17/12/2021 14:33

My parrot woke this morning and said SHE had a dream last night about being JADED JADED AND I LOOKED OUT THE WINDOW ND SAW 3MACPIES i think its a good sigh congrats to all conserned a major step on the road to or should i say sea to drilling a succesfull oil well the share price does reflect the progress made so far now now is the time to jump aboard and make a fortune before the market wakes up to this bargain in my opinion DYOR GLA

[lazarus2010] 17/12/2021 14:20

Helpfull, without bothering to forensically examine your figures, you seem to have conveniently forgotten about the amount spent to date on securing the rig ($1.9mln) and costs of preparing all the permits, RNs etc etc

[helpfull] 17/12/2021 12:54

Tickety Tock! Shareholders have come out of that cash raise better than expected. Saved by the CLN. The company has trouble raising funds.

What is the cash situation?

Empyrean had $150,000 at end of June 2021.
Empyrean raised £5.02 million (US$6.92m) on 9 Jul 2021.
Empyrean raised approx. £433,000 from the exercise of 12p warrants
Yesterday, Empyrean raised £7.623 million (US$10.14m).

That adds up to £13,189,000 or at $1.33/£ is $17,541,370.

The RNS informed shareholders the cash position is now £10.68m (approx US$14.2m). That's a high spend rate/costs in the last 6 months. Be careful.

[begorrah88] 17/12/2021 12:34

They will have been trades done during the day & late reported & I would think a main contributing factor in the move down in the share price following the RNS - we saw significant buying after that failed to lift the share price up by the same proportion as the reported sells that took it down (granted the 10% reported dilution will have moved the MM's position as well).We may yet see more as the MM's seem to be happy provide buys at lower prices.

[wcj] 17/12/2021 12:24

begorrah88

I think it probably wrong to say that the 3 big sales last night were sales. If mms took those three trades their books would be significantly unbalanced and I doubt that they would have done the trades at those prices. Much more likely is that institutions who are interested and know the system stepped up to take some of the 6.3p shares as blocks because they like the risk/reward. As such they would be buys rather than sells.

[begorrah88] 17/12/2021 12:04

Seems a likely scenario wcj & those trades just reported from yesterday would seem to support it (3.5m sell at 6.3p etc) add in some people that may have been caught with open T-trades expecting a rise, having to sell stock to cover those & it may take a while to settle before a move back up.As you say some good news would help - another silent period will do the opposite.

[wcj] 17/12/2021 11:46

TK needs £7m and can’t find anyone wanting to invest.

The money has to come from somewhere - that is existing shareholders or new shareholders.

Persuade a finance house that if they take the shares at 6p they will be able to sell them in the market for 6.3p fairly soon, to make a 5% return.

Some PR will attract the attention of some new investors who like the risk/return on offer.

Price drops to 6.3, and the mms sell out their tranche until it is taken up. Buyers are either existing shareholders or new investors.

We saw yesterday a fair bit of buying, but we don’t know how many shares need feeding out. That is the paeriod we are in now. When they have gone (and that may be very quickly helped if TK can come up with some good news flow) the share price will rise.

In effect it means that we are being offered an open offer at 6.3p. He could have done it as a rights issue, but the effect is the same. Less trouble for him, and it doesn’t have the period of uncertainty while the rights issue is under way.