Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 07/7/2008 18:59

still falling

[briarberry] 03/7/2008 15:36

Initial Claims 06/28 404K

(recession level)

[briarberry] 02/7/2008 22:20

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- South African vehicle sales fell an annual 22 percent in June after the central bank raised interest rates for the second time this year last month.

Sales dropped to 39,062 from 50,020 a year earlier, the Pretoria-based National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa said in an e-mailed statement today. It was the 15th consecutive decline on an annual basis and compared with a 23.4 percent drop in May.

[briarberry] 02/7/2008 21:27

GM SHARES DROP 15% TO $9.98, LOWEST CLOSING PRICE SINCE 1954

[briarberry] 02/7/2008 20:54

resources down today, all we need is for crude to drop to make the set ???

Rio Tinto down 8%


BHP Billiton Ltd. down 6%


Materials


some of the Oils = strange as oil is up today


(recession signal or just daily noise?)

[briarberry] 02/7/2008 20:20

coal stocks down 13% in the USA

Dow Jones US Coal Index

Arch Coal

[briarberry] 01/7/2008 23:40

US auto sales, change from June last year...


Toyota's U.S. sales fell 21.4 percent, while Ford Motor Co. said it sales tumbled nearly 28 percent. Chrysler LLC took a huge hit for the month with sales down 35.9 percent.

GM's car sales sank 21 percent in June, while its incentive-boosted truck sales were off 16 percent (0% finance for 7yrs = free SUVs?).




MADRID (Thomson Financial) - Sales of new cars plunged 30.8 percent in Spain in June compared with the same month last year after suffering an annual fall of 24.3 percent in May, the Spanish automobile manufacturers' association reported Tuesday.

[briarberry] 30/6/2008 23:05

Investors are not showing much faith in Freddie Mac or Fanny Mae considering they're now holding up the US property market

down 8%
down 6%

[briarberry] 30/6/2008 21:10

China slow down, looks like it ???


Hong Kong companies may shut 20,000 factories in the neighboring Guangdong province this year due to increased costs from higher fuel prices and wages, an industry association said. "At the end of this year, maybe only 50,000 Hong Kong-owned businesses will remain," from about 70,000 in the province, according to Danny Lau, chairman of the Hong Kong Small and Medium Enterprises Association.

[briarberry] 28/6/2008 19:51

sign of the times...

WM Washington Mutual Inc (NYSE) (BKX component)

[briarberry] 24/6/2008 21:31

trying to keep the bubble inflated...


For Sale: Homes, Cars -- No Money Down! (Again)

The Wall Street Journal reports "no money down" financing is also making a comeback in the housing market. Thanks to nonprofits that are funded by homebuilders and private homeowners, buyers can get their down payments funded and then qualify for FHA-insured loans -- meaning U.S. taxpayers are ultimately on the hook for these loans.

[briarberry] 24/6/2008 16:35

June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Dow Chemical Co. will raise prices as much as 25 percent in July, the largest increase in company history and the second in two months, to recoup surging energy and raw-material costs.

The biggest U.S. chemical maker also will add freight surcharges of $300 per truck shipment and $600 per rail shipment as of Aug. 1, Midland, Michigan-based Dow said today in a statement. Factories that make Styrofoam, paint ingredients and auto plastics will be shut because of weak demand and rising costs, Dow said.

[briarberry] 24/6/2008 15:40

Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities have dropped a record 15.3% in the past year and are now back to where they were in 2004, the Case-Shiller home price index says.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in April by the most on record, signaling the housing recession is far from over, a private survey showed today.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 15.3 percent from a year earlier, after a 14.3 percent decline in March. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007. The group began keeping year-over-year records in 2001.

Month-Over-Month

The report from S&P/Case-Shiller showed home prices decreased 1.4 percent in April from a month earlier after a 2.2 percent decline in March, the report showed. The figures aren't adjusted for seasonal effects, so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month to month.

[briarberry] 22/6/2008 22:48

$2 Trillion Reduction In Credit Card Lines Coming Up


Credit is drying up everywhere. Banks are now concerned (finally), about rising credit card debt. They have every reason to be. The bankruptcy reform act of 2005, which encouraged such reckless lending is now blowing up in lenders' faces.

Banks and credit card companies wrote that bill. They got everything they wanted. It goes to show you two things:

1) Be careful of what you ask, you might get it.
2) Greed kills.

Furthermore, I expect many of the debt slave provisions of the bill to be undone after Obama is elected. That will increase defaults. Even if an unwinding of that "reform" does not happen, the writing is on the wall for lenders for the simple reason "You cannot get blood out of a turnip".

Regardless of what the law says, unemployed people are not going to be paying credit card bills. A second point is that someone unemployed, with no income, will meet the strict guidelines for wiping away all their debt.

I talked about this in Bankruptcy Reform Act Finally Blows Sky High.

Banks have finally beginning to get the bleak message that credit card defaults are going to soar. In response, Banks are Trimming Limits for Many on Credit Cards.

[briarberry] 22/6/2008 16:41

is this a sign, if so, what ?


Western Union = The fastest way to send money worldwide

Use Western Union Money Transfer and Quick Collect services to send money online with pay out at over 170000 Western Union Agent locations worldwide

breakout UP!



Western Union has a number of divisions, with products such as person-to-person money transfer, money orders, and commercial services. As of June 9, 2006, the company has 270,000 Western Union agent locations in over 200 countries and territories. Reported revenues top $5 billion annually.

(cash is king, don't trust banks ???)

[briarberry] 21/6/2008 17:56

Apparently June auto sales are looking really weak according to this article in the Detriot Free Press:

U.S. sales plummeting, Chrysler's chief says

Industry-wide sales so far in June have been about 20% worse than Chrysler's expectations for the year, according to the memo.

In November ... executives were assuming Americans would buy ... only about 15.5 million [vehicles in 2008]. ... [S]o far in June ... J.D. Power and Associates and Citigroup are seeing a sales pace that is almost 20% lower -- only 12.5 million vehicles per year.

"This is the lowest sales level in 16 years and indicates a significant and continued softening of the U.S. automotive market," Nardelli wrote.

[briarberry] 20/6/2008 23:48

Californian unemployment - the recession is starting in earnest...


(06-20) 13:10 PDT SAN FRANCISCO -- California's unemployment rate rocketed up 0.6 percentage point in May - the largest one-month increase since the state began keeping records in 1976 - as the fallout from high energy prices and the depressed housing market rippled through the state's economy.

The state's jobless rate was a seasonally adjusted 6.8 percent, up from 6.2 percent in April, the California Employment Development Department reported today. That's the highest rate since November 2003, when California was recovering from recession.

Meanwhile, the total number of jobs in the state declined by 10,900 in May, the third month in a row that payrolls shrank. Construction was the biggest loser, shedding 9,600 jobs during the month.

[briarberry] 19/6/2008 23:14

Wealthy Investors Shift Funds From Global Banks to Reduce Risks

By Jeff Plungis

June 19 (Bloomberg) -- High-net worth individuals, those coveted financial-services customers with at least $2 million to invest, are shifting assets from brokerages and large global banks to smaller, more conservative alternatives.

``For the first time in my career, I saw concern about the location of one's assets,'' said Robert Balentine, the head of Wilmington Trust Corp.'s investment management group. ``We've seen tangible evidence of very wealthy clients shifting assets out of brokerage firms in great numbers.''

[briarberry] 19/6/2008 18:19

This should curb oil demand and slow their economy...


China to Raise Fuel Prices
By 17%-18% in Surprise Move

[briarberry] 19/6/2008 18:12

Oil price shocks 1970s, yeah I guess Germany learnt to live without whereas the USA printed more money to outbid others for the remaining world oil supply available ???


Oil Shocks Are NOT Necessarily Inflationary

Oil Shock II: From 1979 to 1981, world oil prices more than doubled from $15.35 per barrel to $38.34 per barrel. Result? U.S. inflation reached almost 15% in the spring of 1980, while German inflation never got above 6% during the oil shock (see shaded area above).



World oil prices almost quadrupled between 1973 to 1975, from $3.50 per barrel in 1973 to $13.50, a 286% jump. Result in Germany? Inflation DECREASED from about 8% to 5% during this period, while U.S. inflation more than tripled from 3.65% in January 1973 (not pictured above) to 12.34% by the end of 1974.


Bottom Line: The case of German inflation in the 1970s and early 1980s demonstrates that oil shocks are not necessarily inflationary, unless accompanied by "accommodative" (i.e. "easy") monetary policy, like was the case in the U.S. Faced with the same rising world oil prices as the U.S. during both oil shocks pictured above, Germany's inflation was much, much lower than the U.S.

The M2 money supply in the U.S. grew by 25% from 1973 to 1975, and again by 28% from 1979 to 1981, and it was that monetary expansion in the U.S. that caused all prices to rise significantly (including the non-food, non-energy core CPI items, see related post), and not rising oil prices.

by Dr. Mark J. Perry (CARPE DIEM)

[briarberry] 18/6/2008 15:41

FedEx Corp. swings to a fiscal fourth-quarter loss from a year-earlier profit, reflecting a $696 million after-tax asset-impairment charge tied to the acquisition of Kinko's and hurt by the surge in fuel prices and the weak U.S. economy.

[briarberry] 18/6/2008 00:57

RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 11:44pm BST 17/06/2008

The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.

"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.

A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.

Such a slide on world bourses would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century.

[briarberry] 17/6/2008 23:01

USA now at 5%...

The current account gap represents 5.0 percent of GDP up from 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter.

[briarberry] 17/6/2008 22:58

current account deficits, everyone living off borrowed money...

Spain (10.5pc of GDP)
Portugal (10.5pc)
and Greece (14pc)

23pc of GDP in Latvia
22pc in Bulgaria.


Morgan Stanley says the current account deficits of Spain (10.5pc of GDP), Portugal (10.5pc), and Greece (14pc) would never have been able to reach such extreme levels before the launch of the euro.

EMU has shielded them from punishment by the markets, but this has allowed them to store up serious trouble. By contrast, Germany now has a huge surplus of 7.7pc of GDP.

The imbalances appear to be getting worse. The latest food and oil spike has pushed eurozone inflation to a record 3.7pc, with big variations by country. Spanish inflation is rising at 4.7pc even though the country is now in the grip of a full-blown property crash. It is still falling further behind Germany. The squeeze required to claw back lost competitiveness will be "politically unpalatable".

Morgan Stanley said the biggest risk lies in the arc of countries from the Baltics to the Black Sea where credit growth has been roaring at 40pc to 50pc a year. Current account deficits have reached 23pc of GDP in Latvia, and 22pc in Bulgaria. In Hungary and Romania, over 55pc of household debt is in euros or Swiss francs.

[briarberry] 17/6/2008 13:39

Housing Starts May 975K - back below 1000K

Building Permits May 969 - down from 978K (as first reported last month)

PPI May 1.4%

(edit added) Industrial Production May -0.2%