Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 02/5/2008 17:26

things that were said to be fixed, turn out not to be...


"Bank of America Corp., the second- biggest U.S. bank, said it may not guarantee $38.1 billion of Countrywide Financial Corp.'s debt after taking over the mortgage lender, fueling speculation that Countrywide's bondholders face renewed risk of default."

[briarberry] 02/5/2008 16:18

it's all just inflation...


Factory Orders - M/M change Actual 1.4%

The headline reading jumped 1.4 percent in March but reflects an inflation-related 2.6 percent spike in the nondurable goods component which includes fuels.

Orders for consumer durable goods plunged 5.6 percent following a 3.4 percent plunge in February.

[briarberry] 02/5/2008 15:33

``It is appalling where we are right now,'' former St. Louis Fed President William Poole, who retired in March, said in an interview. The Fed has introduced ``a backstop for the entire financial system.''

[briarberry] 02/5/2008 14:27

Fed, they wouldn't need to do this if things were getting better...


The Federal Reserve and other central banks are increasing the funding they provide to banks. The Fed also says that, for the first time, it's willing to accept bonds backed by auto loans and credit cards.

[briarberry] 02/5/2008 13:57

bull moves usually end on good news

especially if they have to make the good news up

[briarberry] 02/5/2008 13:32

payrolls -20K (it's a lie)


Birth/Death Model added +267K (small firms will be firing not hiring)



payrolls probably -287K

quote
Once again the BLS should be embarrassed to report this data. Its model suggests that there was 45,000 jobs coming from new construction businesses

[briarberry] 02/5/2008 13:13

Retail sales in Germany, Europe's largest economy, unexpectedly declined in March for a second month as accelerating inflation left consumers with less money.

Sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, fell 0.1 percent from February, when they dropped 0.7 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists forecast a gain of 0.6 percent, the median of 29 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey shows. In the year, sales fell 6.3 percent. "

[briarberry] 02/5/2008 13:00

SPX going to put a short on today

in 2001 the SPX made it back to 50% fib

50% fib is at 1416

hope that it stops either here or at the 61.8% fib (1454)

on end-of-year contract

it doesn't look like the stimulus package will fill the hole left by the credit contraction

and at the same time price inflation is still feeding through the system

[briarberry] 02/5/2008 12:42

Price inflation in India...


May 2 (Bloomberg) -- India's inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in more than three years, vindicating the central bank's decision to order commercial lenders to increase reserves twice last month.

Wholesale prices rose 7.57 percent in the week ended April 19 from a year earlier, after gaining 7.33 percent in the previous week, the government said in a statement in New Delhi today. Economists had expected a 7.42 percent increase.

[briarberry] 01/5/2008 23:57

Vehicle sales look alarmingly weak in April coming in at a combined domestic and import annual unit rate of 13.9 million that would be the weakest showing since 1993.

[briarberry] 01/5/2008 17:31

price inflation actually making the news in the USA


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Soaring prices for food, gas and other everyday needs pushed consumer spending to a faster pace than expected in March.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that consumer spending was up 0.4 percent, double the increase that economists had forecast.

However, once inflation was removed, spending edged up a much slower 0.1 percent.

(consumer spending would be -ve if a realistic value for price inflation was used)

[briarberry] 01/5/2008 16:46

TEHRAN, April 30 (Xinhua) -- Iran had totally removed U.S. dollars in the country's oil transactions, an Oil Ministry official said on Wednesday.

"The dollar has completely been removed from our oil trade....Crude oil customers have agreed with us to use other currencies (in the trade)," Oil Ministry official Hojjatollah Ghanimifard was quoted as saying by the state television.

"We make our transactions with euros in Europe, but yen in Asia," he added.

[briarberry] 01/5/2008 16:40

US payrolls Friday morning (indications are not looking good)...


The National Association of Purchasing Management - Chicago
Chicago area firms aren't adding new workers as the employment index indicates wide layoffs, at 35.3 vs. 44.6 in March.

ISM manufacturing report, employment fell from 49 to 45

Challenger Job-Cut Report
Companies announced 90,015 layoffs in April, up more than 40,000 from March and the most of any month since September 2006. Financial firms announced the most layoffs at more than 23,000

Initial Claims 380K (recession level is around 400K)

[briarberry] 01/5/2008 13:35

MEW, I guess this sort of thing was fine as long as the banks could sell the debt on to naive foreign investors (it's all over now obviously)...


These homeowners did particularly well during the bubble rally. The bought the house in April 2002 for $312,000 putting a paltry $15,600 down. In March of 2005, they refinanced with a $446,200 first mortgage and a $100,000 second. This pulled out their initial $15,600 "investment" and put an additional $234,800 in their pocket. Then in October of 2005, they refinanced again and got a $711,200 loan pulling out an additional $165,000. Then, as if that wasn't enough, they opened a HELOC for $150,000 in November of 2005. This was a hard working house, but it wasn't done quite yet. In November of 2006, they took out a stand-alone second mortgage for $200,000 and probably paid off the HELOC. That is a total of $599,800 in mortgage equity withdrawal in 4 1/2 years. They put in $15,600 and took out $599,800. That is a good return on your investment, and it would have been if they had sold it at the peak. Of course, they probably thought the house would go on providing them with an additional $150,000 a year in income for perpetuity, and there was no sense in firing such a stellar performer. Since they didn't sell and only "put" it to the lender, they will now have to deal with bad credit and the loss of that $150,000 a year income.

(this man is good, knows what he is talking about etc)

[briarberry] 01/5/2008 13:33

Initial Claims 04/26 380K

[briarberry] 30/4/2008 19:02

General Motors (NYSE:GM) on Wednesday reported a wider net loss of $3.3bn for the first quarter as the flagging US car market and problems at GMAC, its financing arm, and Delphi, its biggest supplier, took their toll.

[briarberry] 30/4/2008 18:24

The U.S. Treasury released on Monday an estimate that it will pay down $35
billion in marketable debt in the April-June quarter, $87 billion less than it
previously projected.

"The decrease in the amount of the paydown, and corresponding increase in
borrowing, is primarily due to lower receipts, redemptions of portfolio
holdings by the Federal Reserve System, and lower issuances of state and local
government series securities," Treasury said in a statement accompanying its
borrowing needs estimate.

[briarberry] 29/4/2008 22:25

The Fed's Bender

April 28, 2008; Page A18

So Federal Reserve officials are whispering to reporters that they will consider a "pause" after another interest-rate cut this week. Perhaps we should be more respectful, but this sounds like the alcoholic who tells his wife he'll quit drinking next weekend, after one more bender. What Chairman Ben Bernanke needs isn't a gradual withdrawal from easy money but membership in Central Bankers Anonymous.

[briarberry] 29/4/2008 16:36

Home price index sinks at record clip in February
Tuesday April 29, 10:00 am ET

S&P index shows housing slump deepening; home prices plunge by record 12.7 pct in February

NEW YORK (AP) -- Housing prices dropped in February at the fastest rate ever, a widely watched index showed on Tuesday, reflecting that the housing slump is gaining momentum and showing no signs of letting up.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 cities fell by 12.7 percent in February versus last year, the largest decline since its inception in 2001. Seventeen of the 20 metro areas reported record annual declines.

"There is no sign of a bottom in the numbers," David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, noting that all 20 metro areas have declined for six straight months.

[briarberry] 29/4/2008 00:34

lots of peeps saying a $trillion...


Wolfensohn `Pessimistic' as Financial Losses Rise

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Former World Bank President James Wolfensohn said he's ``pessimistic'' on the outlook for financial markets and predicted losses from the global credit turmoil may climb to $1 trillion.

``I'm more pessimistic than optimistic,'' Wolfensohn, 74, said an interview today in London. ``That doesn't necessarily mean a crash, but it means we're not through the woods yet. There are continued dangers.''

U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Robert Steel forecast last week that tighter credit conditions ``will take a while to work through.'' Banks worldwide have reported more than $309 billion of writedowns and credit losses caused by the U.S. subprime collapse and the seizure in credit markets.

``It does seem to be a major adjustment on any level,'' Wolfensohn said, after addressing the European Pensions and Savings Summit 2008. ``There may be a $1,000 billion worth of losses in it somewhere.'' He said he ``cannot recall anything similar, certainly in the last 30 to 40 years that I've worked.''

[briarberry] 27/4/2008 23:20

CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS - C.A.R. reports sales decreased 24.5 percent, median home price fell 29 percent in March

For release: Friday, April 25, 2008

LOS ANGELES (April 25) – Home sales decreased 24.5 percent in March in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 29 percent, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.

The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during March 2008 was $413,980, a 29 percent decrease from the revised $582,930 median for March 2007, C.A.R. reported. The March 2008 median price fell 1.3 percent compared with February's revised $419,640 median price.

"Both tighter underwriting standards and the ongoing effects of the credit/liquidity crunch continue to constrain sales," said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "Historically, mortgage rates on jumbo loans are 0.2 percent to 0.4 percent higher than those on conforming loans, but the spreads in recent weeks have been as large as 2 percentage points, reflecting an increase in the perceived risk associated with these loans.

[briarberry] 27/4/2008 22:45

It's interesting to see how well Boeing are doing...



while Boeings customers suffer the effects of high fuel prices and the recession...





I'm sure bankrupt airlines will buy lots and lots of new aeroplanes :) :)



Although it's said that air travel is taking off in (you guessed it) China



Air China has reported a 147% rise in quarterly profits, helped by a travel boom sparked by the rapid growth in the Chinese economy.

Air China is expected to get a boost from people travelling to the Olympics.