Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 16/6/2008 20:36

Housing prices in Southern California continued their record-setting decline in May, falling 27% from year-ago levels, as lenders continued to depress median prices by dumping foreclosed homes in rising numbers, according to DataQuick Information Systems. Housing prices have now rolled back to early 2004 levels, DataQuick reports.

Highlights of DataQuick's report on May sales in the region: Overall home sales for the region fell 14.9% from year-earlier levels and fell 26.7% in Los Angeles County. The overall level of sales in May was the lowest ever measured by DataQuick, which has tracked the regional market for 20 years.

Median price pad for the Southern California region in May was $370,000, down from $385,000 in April and down 26.7% from the peak median of $505,000 reached in May 2007. The last time prices were that low was March 2004.

Foreclosed houses made up 37.4% of the region's home sales in May, a dramatic increase from 5.5% a year ago. In hard-hit Riverside County, 56.6% of the homes sold in May had previously been foreclosed on.

[briarberry] 16/6/2008 13:18

Chinese vendor financing, I wonder when will they actually stop rather than just talking about it...


"China `Not Smart' to Invest in U.S. Bonds, Cheng Says (Update2)
By Belinda Cao

June 13 (Bloomberg) - China's government, which invests up to a third of its $1.68 trillion in currency reserves in Treasuries, is "not smart'' to invest in U.S. debt and should seek higher returns, a former legislator said.

"I don't think it's a smart move to invest in U.S. bonds,'' said Cheng Siwei, former vice chairman of the National People's Congress, China's legislature, at a Beijing conference. "We need smart capitalists to invest ourselves,'' instead of lending money to American investors and earning interest, he said.

Cheng's remarks on Nov. 7 that China should improve the structure of its foreign reserves by favoring stronger currencies helped pushed the dollar to record lows against the euro. He said today his comments represented his "personal opinion, not the government's policy.''

.
Countries in Asia have amassed a record $4.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves since the 1997-98 financial crisis, seeking to protect their economies from a similar regional currency slump. China set up China Investment Corp., a $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, in September to seek higher returns on its holdings.

[briarberry] 16/6/2008 00:01

And some markets are nothing but foreclosures.

WSJ.com– If you want to buy a home in Sacramento, Calif., the banks have a deal for you. The Sacramento Association of Realtors says that a whopping 65.5% of 1,654 homes sold by Realtors in May were bank-owned, foreclosed, homes. The median sales price in Sacramento County and the City of West Sacramento May was $230,250, down 34.2% from a year ago.



The US government has gone from being the biggest player in the mortgage market to being just about the only player. Per recent reports sent by an alert reader, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae now finance 80% of all mortgages, and the FHA guarnatees another 10%, so these entities now come close to having mortgage finance all to themselves.

[briarberry] 15/6/2008 22:26

Europe - credit crisis is deepening...


European banks' balance sheets
By David Oakley in the FT - Published: June 13 2008 17:58

European banks have a $400bn hole on their balance sheets in spite of a record-breaking week in fund-raising from rights issues.

This is a 20 per cent increase from the end of last year, raising a big question mark over the health of the banks and suggesting the credit crisis is deepening, according to Citigroup.

The so-called capital deficit, which measures the amount of equity banks should have in relation to risky assets on their books, now stands at more than $400bn, according to Citigroup....

[briarberry] 15/6/2008 22:16

More pawning goods for gas, food
Tight budgets pose problem for store owners, though -- no one's buying

[briarberry] 15/6/2008 16:43

will Lehman do a Bear Stearns ???

Senior executives at Lehman Brothers, the embattled Wall Street securities firm, have been summoned this weekend for a series of meetings as the firm prepares to release second-quarter earnings on Monday and speculation swirls that the firm may be sold to a larger bank, CNBC has learned.


All Lehmans profits went to fund employee share options...


In the 13 quarters from the end of that year through this year's first quarter - that is, before the new $2.8 billion loss - Lehman reported net income of $11.9 billion, and spent $11.8 billion on share repurchases.

It paid an average price of $62.19 for shares that dropped under $23 after the shake-up was announced.

Its policy on share buybacks was to avoid the dilution caused by grants of restricted shares and options issued to employees, and that meant it bought back about as many shares as it issued.

It succeeded. The number of shares outstanding at the end of the first quarter was virtually the same as it was at the end of the 2004 fiscal year, after adjusting for a stock split.

[briarberry] 15/6/2008 16:40

lies, lies and more lies - New Jersey home sales actually fell 30 percent...


Real estate group admits error in NJ home sales
updated 12:53 p.m. ET, Sat., June. 14, 2008Font size: TRENTON, N.J. -

Those numbers are so very, very wrong.

Encouraging home sales statistics for New Jersey that were released by the National Association of Realtors looked too good to be true.

Now the association says that's exactly what they were.

The association admitted Friday that it was mistaken when it said New Jersey home sales were up four percent in the first quarter of 2008.

That would have made the state one of only three in the nation with an increase.

Instead, New Jersey home sales actually fell 30 percent.

The association's research division took responsibility for the mistake but didn't specify how it occurred.

[briarberry] 14/6/2008 23:21

US regional (small banks), are they starting to crumble now too ???

From the Yahoo list of biggest one-day losers, all these small banks:

Provident Community Bancshares, Inc. (PCBS) -27%
CCF Holding Co. (CCFH) -24%
Security National Financial Corp. (SNFCA) -18%
Radian Group Inc. (RDN) -14%
Central Federal Corp. (CFBK) -14%
IFC CAPITAL TRUST VI (IFC-PM) -11%
INDYMAC BANCORP UTS (IMB-P) -11%
Broadway Financial Corp. (BYFC) -10%
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) -10%

[briarberry] 14/6/2008 22:30

Dividends Cut Most In Five Years

Cash strapped banks have had no choice but to raise capital, and on increasingly worse terms. Yet many banks and brokers are still paying dividends they cannot afford. It makes no sense to pay dividends while increasing shareholder dilution in capital raising efforts.

Bloomberg was talking about dividend cuts today in U.S. Financial Firms Cut Dividends Most in Five Years. Here are a few highlights:

KeyCorp (KEY), Ohio's third- largest bank, chopped its payout in half today -- the first decrease in 43 years -- and said it must raise $1.5 billion after losing a tax case.

Goldman (GS), the world's biggest securities firm, may reduce its dividend by 26 cents to 9 cents, while Bank of America (BAC), the second-largest U.S. bank by assets, may cut its payout by the same amount, to 38 cents, Deutsche Bank AG strategists wrote in a June 10 report.

Citigroup ©, the biggest U.S. bank, may lower its dividend by 23 cents, the same amount it did in January, to 9 cents, according to the report.

Washington Mutual and National City each slashed their dividends to close to the bare minimum -- a penny.

Wachovia (WB) dropped 23 percent after the bank cut its dividend in April.
Some banks, especially Citigroup have been way too slow in cutting dividends. Citigroup does not need to reduce its dividend, it needs to eliminate it. It will eventually be forced to.

[briarberry] 14/6/2008 16:40

Emerging markets face inflation meltdown
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard - 13/06/2008

India
In India, Mumbai's BSE index has lost 27pc of its value as the exodus of foreign funds accelerates. The central bank has raised rates to 8pc to curb inflation and halt a run on the rupee, but critics still say the country waited too long to tackle overheating. The current account deficit has shot up to near 3.5pc of GDP. A plethora of subsidies has pushed the budget deficit to 9pc of GDP.


China
Shanghai's composite index touched a fourteen-month low of 2,900 yesterday. It follows moves this week by the central bank raised reserve requirement yet again, draining a further $60bn from the banking system. Chinese stocks have now slumped by almost 50pc since peaking in October.
.
.
A quarter of the 800 shoe factories in the Guangdong region have shut down in recent months, and several thousand textile workshops are battling to stay afloat. Hong Kong's industry federation has warned that 10,000 firms operating in the South of China may soon go out of business.

[briarberry] 13/6/2008 13:35

China - does anyone know if China adjusts it's sales figures for inflation ? I'm guessing they don't ???

June 13 (Bloomberg) -- China's retail sales growth stayed close to the fastest pace in at least nine years in May as incomes climbed, underscoring the country's economic strength amid a world slowdown.

Sales soared 21.6 percent to 870.4 billion yuan ($126 billion) after gaining 22 percent in April, the statistics bureau said today.



from post 1604 above

Chinese food inflation still 19.9% up on last year (and that's just the official figure)


(China still subsidises fuel prices so that might be why general price inflation isn't worse?)

[briarberry] 12/6/2008 18:35

June 12 (Bloomberg) -- The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, posted a record decline as port congestion eased and on speculation China may buy less iron ore.

The index tracking transport costs on international trade routes dropped 963 points, or 8.7 percent, to 10,142 points, according to the Baltic Exchange in London today. Rates for so- called capesize vessels that typically haul iron ore for making steel fell 15 percent to $180,237 a day

[briarberry] 12/6/2008 14:59

Import/export prices have never shown this much pressure in more than 20 years of available data, at year-on-year rates of 17.8 percent for imports in May and 8.0 percent for exports

Prices of non-petroleum imports rose 0.5 percent in the month, are now at a record year-on-year pace of 6.6 percent.

agricultural prices which rose 0.3 percent in the month for a 33.3 percent year-on-year rise, another a record

[briarberry] 12/6/2008 13:32

Initial Claims 06/07 384K

nearly at recession level

[briarberry] 12/6/2008 12:26

Chinese food inflation still 19.9% up on last year (and that's just the official figure)...


June 12 (Bloomberg) -- China's food inflation slowed last month after vegetable supplies recovered from blizzards in January and February and farmers reared more pigs.

The increase of 19.9 percent from a year earlier compared with a 22.1 percent gain in April, the statistics bureau said today. Non-food inflation cooled to 1.7 percent from 1.8 percent.

Overall consumer-price growth slowed to 7.7 percent from the almost 12-year high of 8.5 percent in April, the bureau said, confirming a number disclosed by government officials. The pace is faster than the central bank's target of 4.8 percent for the year, suggesting that it may allow more appreciation of the yuan to cool import costs.

[briarberry] 12/6/2008 12:21

Solid losses in Asia: China -2.7%, HongKong -2.2%, India -2.5% and Japan -2.1%.

[briarberry] 11/6/2008 23:48

loan insurers going bust, will hurt the investment rating of all the loans they insured...


The latter became a real possibility yesterday when a motion filed by Merrill Lynch was ruled on in "Merrill .v. XLCA, 08-cv-2893", and found that Merrill was entitled to the protection that it had purchased from XL Capital.

Otherwise known as a CDS, or Credit Default Swap.

This opens the door for XL Capital to be forced to pay $3.1 billion in coverage on those swaps.

By the way, XL Capital (NYSE: SCA) currently trades at 52 cents/share as of Tuesday afternoon, and has a market cap of $34 million, with balance sheet cash of $480 million, according to Yahoo Finance's statistics page.

From that quick cursory look this is almost certain to bankrupt the company immediately.

Thereby making all of the other swaps that they wrote worthless.

Thereby causing all of the credit instruments that they wrapped to immediately trade at their underlying credit quality, whatever that might be.

Care to bet that this is the only one like this out there?

[briarberry] 11/6/2008 19:58

corn up 4%


oats up 5%

wheat up 7%



Corn prices have hit new highs after the US Department of Agriculture forecast that output would fall because of poor weather.

Corn hit a record price of $6.672 a bushel for July delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade after the government cut its forecasts for the 2008 yield by 3%.

Crops have been hard hit by wet weather and flooding in the US.

The government also reduced its forecast for corn supplies running to 31 August 2009 to its lowest in more than a decade, at 673 million bushels or three weeks' worth of supply.

[briarberry] 10/6/2008 19:41

From sentimentrader.com:

The move in short-term T-Notes is exceptional, one of the largest moves in 30 years. That has helped to flatten the yield curve dramatically over the past two days. Using data since 1977, the current two-day drop in the spread between 2-Year TNotes and 10-Year TNotes is the largest since 1982. Not only that, it's five standard deviations from the norm over the past 30 years.

[briarberry] 10/6/2008 15:50

more signs of a global recession...

China -7%
Hong Kong -4%








June 10 (Bloomberg) -- China's stocks plunged 8.1 percent, the most since February 2007, after the central bank ordered lenders to set aside record reserves to curb credit growth and inflation.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. led banks lower after the central bank said June 7 it will raise the reserve ratio for the fifth time this year by a full percentage point, withdrawing about $61 billion from the financial system. China Vanke Co. dropped on concern institutions will curb loans to developers and home buyers. Air China Ltd. fell on concern surging oil prices will increase fuel costs.

[briarberry] 09/6/2008 22:33

NAR: US pending home sales move higher in April

However, Global Insight economist Patrick Newport tempered his enthusiasm for the surprising increase in April's pending sales.

"It's good news, but I'm not jumping for joy because I'm not convinced that it's telling us things are picking up," he said "It's telling me that banks are dumping properties at fire sale prices, spurring home sales."

Newport noted that inventory remains at record highs and is growing, especially in the West where foreclosures and so-called short sales make up the bulk of deals. A short sale is where the house is sold for less than the amount owed on the mortgage.