Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 09/6/2008 16:02

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the fourth-largest U.S. securities firm, reported a record $2.8 billion second-quarter loss and said it will raise $6 billion in capital in a public offering.

[briarberry] 06/6/2008 14:33

The unemployment rate soared from 5 percent in April to 5.5 percent in May. That was the biggest one-month jump in the rate since February 1986. The increase left the jobless rate at its highest since October 2004.

The government said the number of unemployed people grew by 861,000 in May



quote

the rise in the UNemployment number of well over 850,000 is pretty gosh awful

[briarberry] 06/6/2008 13:32

Nonfarm Payrolls May -49K

[briarberry] 06/6/2008 11:13

ratings on more than $1 trillion...


June 5 (Bloomberg) -- MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., the world's largest bond insurers, had their AAA financial strength rankings cut by Standard & Poor's, taking with them the ratings on more than $1 trillion of securities they guaranteed.

[briarberry] 05/6/2008 18:03

DJ MBA: 1Q Delinquencies, Foreclosures Continue To Set Records

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures
continued to rise in the first quarter despite efforts to calm the nation's
troubled housing market.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday 6.4% of mortgages were at
least 30 days delinquent in the first quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis,
up 53 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2007 and 151 basis points from
the first quarter of 2007. The figure was the highest recorded in the
association's survey since 1979.

The number of foreclosure starts and loans somewhere in the foreclosure
process also rose in the quarter to the highest levels the association has
seen since 1979.

The survey found 2.5% of loans were in foreclosure during the first quarter,
an increase of 43 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2007 and 119 basis
points from the first quarter last year.

Foreclosure starts for subprime adjustable-rate mortgages climbed 106 basis
points to 6.4% in the quarter as subprime fixed foreclosure starts rose 28
basis points to 1.8%. However, foreclosure rate increases again this quarter
were not confined to the subprime market.

Prime adjustable-rate loan foreclosure starts rose 49 basis points to 1.6%.

"The magnitude of the national increases is clearly driven by certain loan
types and certain states," Jay Brinkmann, the association's vice president for
research and economics, said in a statement.

California and Florida continue to drive up national average foreclosure
rates although 20 states are seeing declines in foreclosure starts, he said.

Michigan and Ohio, still among the states with the highest levels of
foreclosure starts, are showing some signs of improvement, according to the
association's survey.

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The seasonally adjusted delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties stood at 6.35 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the first quarter of 2008 on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, up 53 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2007, and up 151 basis points from one year ago, according to MBA's National Delinquency Survey.

The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process was 2.47 percent at the end of the first quarter, an increase of 43 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2007 and 119 basis points from one year ago.


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"NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- More than one million homes are now in foreclosure, the highest rate ever recorded, according to a trade group which warned Thursday that number will continue to climb.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's first quarter report showed that a record 2.5% of all loans being serviced by its members are now in foreclosure, which works out to about 1.1 million homes. That's up from the 2% of loans, or about 938,000 homes, that were in foreclosure at the end of 2007."

[briarberry] 04/6/2008 16:21

European retail sales declined 2.9 percent in April, more than three times as much as economists forecast, as soaring fuel and food prices undermined consumer spending.

[briarberry] 03/6/2008 20:19

DJ Chrysler: May Fleet Sales Down More Than 40%

[briarberry] 03/6/2008 16:18

unreported inflation in all the figures...


Factory orders

Boosted by a price-related 2.8 percent month-to-month jump for nondurable goods, factory orders rose 1.1 percent in April despite a 0.6 percent decline for durable goods. The Commerce Department said the gain in non-durables was tied to petroleum and coal products.

last month

Factory orders showed less weakness than expected in March, with the headline reading jumping 1.4 percent in March. However, much of the boost reflected an inflation-related 2.6 percent spike in the nondurable goods component which includes fuels. The durable goods component rose a modest 0.1 percent in the month

[briarberry] 02/6/2008 00:01

I wonder if China lies about it's CPI, growth could be lower than reported ???


China's Manufacturing Pace Slows on Weaker Exports (Update2)
By Li Yanping and Josephine Lau

June 1 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in China, the world's fastest-growing major economy, expanded at a slower pace in May as export growth weakened.

The Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 53.3 from a record 59.2 in April, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in an e-mailed statement.

The index of export orders fell to 53.4 from 58.9. The index of new orders declined to 55.4 from 65. The output index dropped to 55.7 from 66.5.

The measure of input prices fell to 73.9 from 75.1, the highest on record, the federation said.

[briarberry] 01/6/2008 23:36

TOKYO - Orders for Japanese semiconductor-making equipment fell by almost half in April as memory chip makers remained cautious on capital spending after sharp price falls, an industry group said on Thursday (May 29).

The association said, however, that a recent recovery in memory chip prices may lead to higher orders of tools used to make microchips towards the end of the year.

[briarberry] 01/6/2008 23:19

The markets have started betting on higher interest rates...


Last week, traders in Fed funds futures priced in a 60 per cent probability of a rate rise by the autumn. In other words, the markets think US inflation will get so bad that rather than helping America climb out of recession by cutting rates, Bernanke will be forced to raise borrowing costs, however painful that may be.

It's a scary thought. But it's not just a thought - for the multi-billion dollar futures market now predicts the next move in rates will be up. Only three weeks ago, the smart money put such a probability at close to zero.

[briarberry] 31/5/2008 23:38

gasoline sales as an indicator of consumer spending ? yeah probably (especially in the USA)...


Russ Winter
Full Blown Inflation and Chaos
Friday, May 30th, 2008 at 8:20 AM

We have gasoline consumption numbers for the front end of Memorial Day weekend and it wasn't pretty. As I am using this as an indicator of consumer spending, the extension is that the weekend was a bust.

Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed average demand fell slightly over the last few weeks. Meanwhile, figures from the firm that publishes the MasterCard SpendingPulse survey showed gasoline demand last Friday, the first day of the long Memorial Day weekend, was down 7.6 percent year over year.

[briarberry] 31/5/2008 22:01

PEAK OIL
The Major Media Accepts The Concept
by Joe Duarte, MD

Citing figures from the U.S. Department of Energy, the Journal reported:

"Fresh data from the U.S. Department of Energy show the amount of petroleum products shipped by the world's top oil exporters fell 2.5% last year, despite a 57% increase in prices, a trend that appears to be holding true this year as well."

According to the data, Saudi oil production is down over 600,000 barrels per day, some 7.6%, while Mexico's output has fallen over 17% per day, Venezuela's 8%, and Norway's nearly 10%. In all, the world's major oil producers are delivering a million barrels less per day than they were at peak production. Making matters worse, consumption remains steady to slightly higher at 86 million barrels per day.

[briarberry] 31/5/2008 19:42

Oil, tropical storm headed for Cantarell the largest oil field in Mexico

Tropical Storm ARTHUR

[briarberry] 30/5/2008 23:47

Excerpt from Peter Schiff...

"....Those oblivious to gold's warnings instead place their trust in government-supplied statistics. Based simply on flimsy CPI reports, these observers believe that inflation is nowhere in evidence, and that the flight to gold is therefore unwarranted. Yesterday's GDP report provides the latest illustration of this dynamic. The government was able to present an annualized first quarter growth rate of .9% based on an assumed annualized rate of inflation of only 2.6%. In other words, inflation in the first quarter of 2008 was the lowest first quarter inflation in the last four years. How such a claim did not elicit howls of laughter is beyond me. The government previously reported that in the years 2007, 2006, and 2005, annualized first quarter inflation rates were 4.2%, 3.4% and 3.9% respectively. Does anyone, besides Fed governors and Wall Street economists, really believe inflation so far in 2008 is 33% below the average rate over the past three years?

Many of those who place their faith with government figures and dismiss the movements in gold believe that inflation is not a problem so long as wages are not rising rapidly. The fact that wages are lagging other prices merely means that inflation is that much more problematic for average Americans. Ironically, what is overlooked is that wages are in fact rising, just not in America. They are rising in the nations that produce the goods that we consume, and those higher costs are indeed being passed on to Americans.

However, recent action in the bond market suggests that a few more people are getting wise to the government's con. This week, yields on long-term treasuries hit new highs for the year, with the yield on the ten year up 90 basis points from its March low. While the Pollyannas on Wall Street attribute this move to the strengthening U.S. economy, those of us buying gold know it's more likely a long overdue increase in inflation expectations. Got gold?"

[briarberry] 30/5/2008 16:18

Those US Corporate Profits figures above don't include writedowns, so the profit picture is far worse ?


Corporate America caused fresh fears of a US economic downturn yesterday as first-quarter profits fell at an annual rate of 6.2 per cent, their sixth consecutive quarter of year-on-year decline.

Profits in non-financial businesses for the first three months of this year fell by an annual 2.6 per cent while those in financial groups were down by 12.2 per cent, before writedowns.

[briarberry] 30/5/2008 13:43

US Corporate Profits are all due to dollar devaluation...


Northern Trust - Will Corporate Profits Deliver in 2008?

Of greater interest is the source of these profits. Corporate profits have advanced entirely due to earnings from abroad resulting from the weakness of the dollar (see chart 2). On a year-to-year basis, corporate profits from the rest of the world grew 34.9%, the sixth consecutive increase in double digits. At the same time, corporate profits from domestic industries fell 6.2%, marking the fourth decline in the past five quarters. Moreover, within the domestic sector, corporate profits of the financial sector declined 12.2% from a year ago and corporate profits from the non-financial sector fell 2.6%.

(these figures do NOT include writedowns)

[briarberry] 30/5/2008 12:11

miners and materials down = is this a sign ? (it's cold and dark down mines = investors don't like mines )

SPX for the year to date - oils and materials are the only two green sectors in the snpee



QUOTE from Australia

Miners was the big loser, -3.8% followed by Materials -3.6%.

The big miners hammered: BHP -5.5% and RIO -4.4%. Less damage in the golds: Newcrest -1.1%, Newmont -3.6% and Lihir -1.7%. Juniors mixed.

Not too much loss in the Energy stocks: Woodside -0.9%, Santos flat and Caltex -1.8%.

[briarberry] 30/5/2008 02:04

America's house prices are falling even faster than during the Great Depression

AS HOUSE prices in America continue their rapid descent, market-watchers are having to cast back ever further for gloomy comparisons. The latest S&P/Case-Shiller national house-price index, published this week, showed a slump of 14.1% in the year to the first quarter, the worst since the index began 20 years ago. Now Robert Shiller, an economist at Yale University and co-inventor of the index, has compiled a version that stretches back over a century. This shows that the latest fall in nominal prices is already much bigger than the 10.5% drop in 1932, the worst point of the Depression. And things are even worse than they look. In the deflationary 1930s house prices declined less in real terms. Today inflation is running at a brisk pace, so property prices have fallen by a staggering 18% in real terms over the past year.

(chart)

[briarberry] 30/5/2008 01:51

Bankruptcy Reform Act of 2005

Do you remember in 2005 they passed a law making it difficult for consumers to go bankrupt, trying to make borrowers debt slaves.

some judge just ignored the law and let the borrower off their debt



this might be bad for investors holding US consumer loans ???

[briarberry] 29/5/2008 23:42

world oil demand should drop (for a while at least)...

Asian countries begin to burst the oil bubble
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 29/05/2008

One by one, countries across Asia and the Middle East are being forced to abandon price controls on fuel and energy, bringing hundreds of millions of consumers face to face with the true market cost of oil. The effect has already begun to chip away at world demand and may ultimately trigger a slide in crude prices.

[briarberry] 29/5/2008 22:01

the USA still needs to borrow a lot of money...


The Treasury's sale of $19 billion in five-year notes fell victim to the
market's sour state. The note yielded 3.52% at the sale, but the yield
represented lost ground relative to where the when-issued version of the
security traded ahead of the bidding deadline. Indirect bidders, which are
large investors that often make or break auctions through their interest, took
only 16.5% of the offering, down from the 23.3% that was the average over the
last four auctions, said Ian Lyngen, a strategist with RBS Greenwich.

[briarberry] 29/5/2008 20:27

pricing in the recession ???

quote

Base metals getting murdered today.. Zinc down 5%, Nickel 4%... Tin is having its biggest drop ever, down 13%.