Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 20/3/2007 22:30

SPX going to scale my short back in

I think the trend has changed to the downside

I don't think that the short squeeze will make it past the 1420s as buyers seem scarce

[briarberry] 19/3/2007 22:33

latest figures still point towards a recession...


The NAHB Housing Index is a measure of Builder sentiment -- it measures a combination of sales, traffic and new permits

What happens when we overlay the Housing Index against Real Personal Consumption? It turns out that, going back to 1985 anyway, it operates as a leading indicator:







NAHB - Traffic of Prospective Buyers - Very Bad Since June 2006

A number below 30 is Very Bad. The value of 31 for Feb'07 was revised down to 29 and March number is 28. This means that this component has been below 30 since June 2006.

[briarberry] 19/3/2007 18:52

MEW is down to zero according to this...

[briarberry] 12/3/2007 22:55

earnings circus - the big financials could still post OK earnings this week ?


Goldman, which kicks off the earnings season tomorrow, is the only firm that's expected to show a profit decline after it set a Wall Street record last year. Analysts estimate the company, led by Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein, will report net income of almost $2.4 billion, or $4.89 a share, down from almost $2.5 billion, or $5.08, a year earlier, a Bloomberg survey shows.

Mack's Report

Higher-than-expected equity sales and trading and an increase in leveraged loans and completed takeovers led Brad Hintz, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York, to raise his first-quarter estimate for Goldman's net income to $2.25 billion, or $4.69 a share.

Lehman and Bear Stearns, the fourth- and fifth-biggest U.S. securities firms by market value, report earnings on March 14 and March 15 respectively. Lehman may say net income rose to $1.13 billion, or $1.91 a share, from $1.09 billion, or $1.83, a year earlier, analysts estimate. Bear Stearns, under Chairman and CEO James Cayne, probably earned $543 million, or $3.76 a share, up from $514 million, or $3.54, a year earlier.

Morgan Stanley publishes earnings next week. The average estimate of eight analysts surveyed by Bloomberg is for net income of $1.99 billion, or $1.93 a share, up from $1.56 billion, or $1.47, a year earlier.

[briarberry] 12/3/2007 21:37

US homebuilders & lenders, well makes you wonder...


Mortgage defaults may climb to $225 billion over the next two years compared with about $40 billion annually in 2005 and 2006, according to debt strategists at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

Zelman lowered her earnings estimates on homebuilding companies and expects earnings per share to plunge 78 percent in 2007 compared with a 13 percent decline in 2006. The estimates exclude land impairment costs taken by homebuilders.








March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Hold on to your assets. The deepest housing decline in 16 years is about to get worse.

[briarberry] 11/3/2007 15:54

credit crunch...


"McFarland said many banks are opting out of loans with buyers, which leaves builders developing a house that can't be funded. That has been happening when houses don't appraise for the loan amount. 'Nobody wants to be responsible for the shortfall,' he said. 'It's a mess, and it's going to get worse as things continue.'"

"McFarland said the supply is going to take years to drain. 'It's the stuff that was written in '05, in '06 that is still out there,' he said. 'The market fell fast. It's falling faster than it went up.'"




"Even some borrowers already in the pipeline are being rejected. 'You don't know how frustrating it is to [have] a client who was approved for a loan 60 days ago, and then the bank calls to say it won't honor the deal,' said Philip X. Tirone, a senior loan officer with United Pacific Mortgage in West Los Angeles."

"As recently as two months ago, consumers could qualify for a home-purchase loan or a refinancing even if they had low credit scores and no cash for a down payment. Not anymore. 'You're back to real credit standards,' said Scott Simon, a mortgage expert and money manager at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach."




WSE podcast 14mb

[briarberry] 05/3/2007 22:43

Junk bonds stepped off the today, down 5% in one day


Commercial property, could have seen it's top too

[briarberry] 03/3/2007 14:18

Dr Doom - at his best

[briarberry] 03/3/2007 00:38

Could subprime be to the credit bubble what dot.com was to the Nasdaq (prudent bear idea) ? don't know, but things are getting worse not better...


The subprime credit risk shock is now having contagious effects for other financial institutions credit spreads. For example, Goldman Sachs' 5yr CDS spread that was in the low 19-22 range between September 2006 and January 2007 has now shot up to the 32-35 range in the last week, a stunning increase. This is the beginning of a serious contagion from subprime to other major credit spreads. As Bloomberg is reporting today:

[briarberry] 02/3/2007 17:11

who can you trust to tell the truth now-a-days ?


ATA Truck Tonnage Index Fell in January

ATA recently revised the index back five years, which resulted in a slightly better 2006 than previously reported, although the index was still down for the year. ATA's index fell 1.7 percent compared with 2005 rather than the originally reported 3.0 percent drop.

[briarberry] 28/2/2007 15:19

10:00 U.S. new-home sales in West down 50.4% y-o-y

the largest percentage drop in the region since 1981

[briarberry] 28/2/2007 15:00

Fed just dished out $9bn, where's it going ?

[briarberry] 28/2/2007 10:59

If that was wave 1, what's wave 3 going to be like ?

Foreclosures reaching recession levels and the recession hasn't even started yet, what happens when unemployment rises.

Tech must be in trouble, they tried to bounce it out to the upside and it wouldn't go, the rally in the SOX - a red herring, Tech's got further to fall

Japan.. Inventories rose 3.6 percent last quarter to their highest levels in five years, driven by record stockpiles of electronic parts and devices.



People will be buying the liquidity story all the way down, even some bears were long yesterday. There's got to be at least a deflation scare before they can lower rates to zero etc

At least after the tulip mania you could plant the bulb and have a nice flower :) what can you do with a toxic loan ? Just wait and hope inflation digs you out of the hole ?

we'll see what happens when the next wave of lenders go bust


USA is like Japan in 1990 except for, no savings, weaker manufacturing and no shortage of building land

[briarberry] 27/2/2007 23:40

well that certainly wasn't just a normal correction


The selling intensity kept up all day, no buyers! record volume on the NYSE

we usually see such extreme panic selling at the bottom, not just off the top (TRIN continued to rise to 15 - not seen since 1987)

what happens when Joe Public gets home from work to find, all the money he's borrowed to gamble with has been lost or is likely to be lost ? We all know the American public has borrowed a lot of money against their homes (MEW)

I remember reading that US investors have invested more money abroad than in their home markets in the last year or so, some of those markets lost even more.




emergency rate cuts ? makes you wonder... but what about the falling dollar and rising inflation (for now)?

[briarberry] 27/2/2007 20:49

If the PPT (stock operators) can close the DOW up now I'd be well impressed... LOL :) :)

[briarberry] 27/2/2007 20:25

recession here we come :( :(

[briarberry] 27/2/2007 19:56

"Stocks fluctuate, next question." ---Alan Greenberg , CEO, Bear, Stearns & Co, in response to questions about the crash, October 22, 1987

[briarberry] 27/2/2007 18:29

Trading Curbs are in

I guess just no one is buying, probably worried the market is going to crash


NYSE Composite Index trading collars are triggered as the
index drops more than 180 points. The collars restrict index-arbitrage
trading. They are removed when the index is above or below the prior day's
close by 70 points.

[briarberry] 27/2/2007 18:19

There's panic selling and record short selling at the same time (sellers are beating short squeezers so far and I'm guessing a lot of the short squeezers are short themselves at the moment)...

record TRIN not seen since March 2003

The TRIN just hit 5.00 - that's not something you see everyday...
There are 1.7 Billion shares down to 66 Million up on the NYSE. That's not something you see everyday...



By far, the highest intraday put/call readings ever recorded in the early sessions.

1.58
1.91
1.67
1.52

Highest day ever recorded this past summer was June 13:

1.46
1.48
1.38
1.29

[briarberry] 27/2/2007 16:30

Yen carry trade, looks like the Yen Index has put in a bottom - thats a few % off margins ?

[briarberry] 27/2/2007 16:28

Martin Armstrong's Economic Pi Cycle

Ian56 pointed this out - todays date is on there

2007.15... 02/27/07