Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 26/2/2007 18:19

this is starting to look serious, financials all down...









Moodys - they deal in structured debt

[briarberry] 26/2/2007 15:39

HONG KONG (AP) -- Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned Monday that the American economy might slip into recession by year's end.

He said the U.S. economy has been expanding since 2001 and that there are signs the current economic cycle is coming to an end.

[briarberry] 26/2/2007 13:52

US the new bankruptcy laws...


Comment by dawnal
2007-02-25 16:23:30
Walking away isn't as easy as it may have been in past real estate crashes. Now we have onerous bankruptcy laws that make the debtor into a slave for 5years or so. The BR court decides how much of what he makes he can keep and the rest goes to pay off the criditors. When you walk away from a mortgage, you run the risk that you will be stuck for the difference between the amount due on the mortgage (plus costs incurred in foreclosing it), and what the lender realizes upon selling the foreclosed property.




Florida, this weekends property auctions - prices still tumbling

[briarberry] 24/2/2007 23:09

Debt markets took a hit in 2001, what will it be like now ? (this sounds like an important point)


For example, when the economy went into a slump in 2000-01, the CDO market hit the wall, generating huge losses. Defaults wiped out equity and mezzanine tranches, and then, because the senior bonds were now exposed to losses, they received credit-rating downgrades that sent the price of these bonds tumbling.

Worse shape this time around
But because of the insurance effect -- remember, an ability to buy insurance, even if it's ineffective, increases risking-taking behavior -- we're in much worse shape this time. Going into the 1990 recession, most-likely-to-fail CCC-rated companies made up just 2% of the junk-bond market, says Martin Fridson, the publisher of Leverage World and formerly Merrill Lynch's junk-bond guru. In February 2007, the figure is 17%.

On these numbers, the debt markets are just one recession away from disaster. So much, it seems, hinges on the Federal Reserve's ability to get the economy just right.

[briarberry] 24/2/2007 22:13

SPX - surprise white candle on Monday ? not sure but EWI said the tops in and they have a lot of readers, also put:call ratio spiked higher, so there could be enough shorts for an up day.

[briarberry] 22/2/2007 20:06

SOX - someones buying semi shares today

may be trying to start a short squeeze in the QQQQs ?

could be just a smoke screen or could it be bullish ?

I don't know

[briarberry] 22/2/2007 12:09

Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, is so disenchanted with U.S. debt markets that he's raised his holdings of cash-equivalent securities to the highest level in almost two years.

Cash equivalents including debt maturing in less than a year accounted for 43 percent of the assets of the $99.9 billion Total Return Fund as of Jan. 31, up from 26 percent at the end of last year and the most since February 2005, according to Pacific Investment Management Co.'s Web site.

Gross, chief investment officer of Newport Beach, California-based Pimco, has repeatedly said in the past year that U.S. bond markets are too expensive in commentaries on the firm's Web site. The latest, published Jan. 29, said the prices of assets including bonds ``are increasingly being determined by value insensitive flows and speculative leverage as opposed to fundamentals.''

Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, have been driven down by the injection of an estimated $1 trillion annually into U.S. asset markets since 2001, Gross wrote. A main source of the funds is the capital other countries accumulate by selling goods to the U.S. The trade deficit widened to a record for a fifth straight year last year, to $763.6 billion.

Bond investors are vulnerable if the trade deficit, which narrowed to $61.2 billion in December from a record $68.6 billion in August, continues to improve, leaving foreigners with less capital to invest in U.S. markets, Gross wrote. A key determinant of the size of the deficit will be the price of crude oil, which has fallen to about $58 a barrel in futures markets from a record $78.40 in July, he said.

[briarberry] 22/2/2007 10:55

SPX just thought I'd better mention that if you use the most bullish TA there should be a big wave up sometime in the next week or so, straight up to 1500

I think the bull bus is about to be cancelled ?

[briarberry] 22/2/2007 01:36

SPX still holding my ticket for the bear bus

[briarberry] 21/2/2007 09:31

Yen carry trade...

Japan's central bank's policy board voted 8-1 to hike the overnight call rate target to 0.50 pct from 0.25 pct.

In an indirect reference to the yen carry trade, he said: "If interest rates
were left unchanged regardless of economic activity and prices, there is a
possibility of sustained economic growth being hampered by mis-allocation of
funds and resources through excess financial and economic activities."




inflation

February 13 – Bloomberg (Lily Nonomiya): "An annual government survey will probably show land prices in some commercial areas of Tokyo rose as much as 40 percent last year, according to...Shukan Diamond, a weekly business magazine."

The Tokyo Stock Exchange Real Estate Sector index returned 13.4 per cent in 2006

[briarberry] 21/2/2007 00:55

Inflation, it's farmland now, this is another one of those things I thought about buying in 2003...


Average U.S. farm prices increased by 15 percent in 2006, Agriculture Department data show. The cost of buying corn farms in Argentina, the world's second-largest exporter of the grain, jumped 27 percent, according to Buenos Aires industry newsletter Margenes Agropecuarios.

Marc Faber, a Hong Kong-based investor who manages about $300 million, says one of his favorite stocks is Cresud SA, a landowner in Argentina's Pampas region. The shares jumped 63 percent last year. Farmland is ``very inexpensive in a world of inflated asset prices,'' he said in an interview Feb. 4 from Bermuda.

[briarberry] 21/2/2007 00:16

Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- NovaStar Financial Inc., a lender of so-called subprime mortgages, had a $14.4 million loss for the fourth quarter, as delinquencies and defaults rose. Shares of the company plunged as much as 28 percent in extended trading.

NovaStar said it may give up its REIT status, which requires it pay out most of its profits in dividends, in 2008.

NovaStar was the 19th-largest subprime home lender by new volume last year, according to industry newsletter Inside B&C Lending.

[briarberry] 20/2/2007 16:37

Saudi Arabia's search for oil

(this field was found years ago but it wasn't developed because it's offshore and has a high metals content).


Manifa Field, Aramco's largest-ever offshore project that aims to add 900,000 b/d of Arabian Heavy crude production by mid-2011.

Belgium dredging contractor, Jan De Nul will carry out dredging works in the Persian Gulf to build "drilling islands and a causeway to provide access for drilling of wells," according to Aramco documents seen by Dow Jones (by 2009).

Apart from the Manifa causeway, Aramco will also award contracts for the construction of central processing facilities, which - in addition to processing the crude - will process 120 million cubic feet of associated sour gas and 50,000 b/d of condensate, the documents say.

.

New refinaries are going to be built as the crude is thought to have a high sulpur and metals (Vanadium) content that will need to be removed.

[briarberry] 20/2/2007 11:59

sentiment - some people still think that the markets won't go down until rates start to be cut, that way small investors will keep buying even as the funds unload ?

not sure, they may be right. although, aren't the funds all fully invested, where are their stops ? surely that's enough fuel for a decline?

obviously, feel inclined to short any relief rallies after rate cuts, as the first few cuts probably won't have much of an effect

[briarberry] 20/2/2007 11:15

hello Ian

exuberance - sentiment seems to be all over the place, people know the economy is in trouble so we might not see as much exuberance as we saw at previous tops ? also the market came straight up from the summer lows with only superficial back and fills. there must be a lot of people fully invested (stops not far below the market).

things like the GOOG earnings report seemed to give investors an emotional boost but then the property numbers keep disappointing. some perma bulls are still saying that we're not going to see a top without a 2000 type blow off, but I think we'll get a panic sell off sooner or later ?

so holding my long term short now, will add if it goes higher, certainly room for the 5th wave to extend etc



yes even more money, but as you know - credit tends to disappear as soon as the sh*t hits the fan :)


LONDON (AFX) - The Bank of England said M4 money, a broad measure of money
supply, rose by 0.9 pct in January from December on a seasonally adjusted basis,
for a 13.0 pct year-on-year rise.

[briarberry] 19/2/2007 23:43

Saudi Arabia's search for oil


Chart showing the total number of rigs both onshore and offshore looking for oil...

[briarberry] 18/2/2007 20:32

some US economic history...


In 1900, a plurality (42 percent) of American men worked in primary occupations such as farming and fishing; by 1998, only 4 percent did. The big growth was in tertiary-sector occupations such as management and service (from 21 percent to 58 percent). Interestingly, the proportion working in secondary occupations (such as factory work) was exactly the same in 1998 as it had been in 1900 (38 percent). Work became much safer--the annual death toll on railroads and in coal mines, for example, dropped from about 5,000 early in the century to about 100 today.

Contrary to another widespread impression, the amount of housework done by American women plummeted.
Store-bought foods, electrical appliances, and wash-and-wear fabrics, among other improvements, had done away with an entire tradition of drudgery.
With fewer children and much less housework, American women poured into the labor force. In 1900, 6 percent of married women were in the labor force; by 1998, it was 61 percent.

Higher standard of living
Perhaps the biggest change in Americans' daily lives was in their household standard of living--U.S. housing was dramatically upgraded during the century. It is hard for us to conceive of housing conditions in 1900: no central heating, no running water, no electricity.

The real incomes (adjusted for inflation) of American workers increased dramatically during the century. As their incomes rose, American families spent a smaller share of their budget on food (43 percent in 1900 to 15 percent in 1997) and a larger share on transportation (2 percent in 1900 to 12 percent in 1997). They also gave away more money: philanthropic donations (not including bequests) increased twelvefold in real dollars from 1930 to 1990.

The increase in standard of living was greater for the poor than for the rich: the incomes of the lowest 40 percent of families tripled from 1929 to 1998, while the incomes of the top 5 percent almost doubled. Likewise, the proportion of the population living below the official poverty line fell from 22 percent in 1959 to 12 percent in 1999.

Business revenue increased ninefold from 1939 to 1996, while the population only doubled. This increase was reflected in stock trading volume (up 1,300-fold since 1939), the value of stocks (Dow Jones Industrial Average up 77-fold since 1939), and the proportion of households owning stocks (from 4 percent in 1952 to 52 percent in 1998).

[briarberry] 18/2/2007 13:54

Foreclosures...

[briarberry] 18/2/2007 13:32

BARCLAYS is this week expected to announce pretax profits topping £6.5 billion for 2006, representing a 25% jump from the year before and kick-starting another record-breaking reporting season for the five big British retail banks.

[briarberry] 18/2/2007 13:22

Greenspan knew what he (as head of the Federal Reserve) was going to cause. In 1994 when the banking regulations were changed by Greeenspan and Greenspan was asked about the formation and risk of "asset bubbles"; he chose to ignore it. In 1995 when the fractional reserve banking system was changed to no reserves for loans less than 1.5MM, the barn doors were flung open. Yes Greenspan is to blame.


The Banks too - no doc loans, no money down, interest only loans, negative amortization, subprime lending, teaser rates, second mortgages or piggy back loans - borrow more than the price of your home etc etc

[briarberry] 18/2/2007 11:48

NonFarm Payrolls, it does sound like unemployment is going to start increasing over the coming months (by summer at the latest I would imagine)...


The bulk of the income effects are yet to come -- especially since the employment declines in residential construction have unwound only about 14% of the hiring boom of over 810,000 that occurred in this sector over the five years ending January 2006. As building activity is brought down into alignment with now depressed rates of new home sales and housing starts, commensurate adjustments can be expected in labor input -- and in the income generation driven by such employment.

(plus all the other jobs directly and indirectly dependant on the housing boom)





In recent years, the trend in temporary employment has tended to be a good coincidental to leading indicator for "turns" in the broader employment series. In the last few cycles, temporary employment has turned down ahead of the broader series and turned up either in advance, or at the same time. The troublesome fact here, temporary employment peaked in early 2004 and is now very close to moving into recession territory with a near zero annual rate of change.

[briarberry] 17/2/2007 22:43

Gharwar, the world's biggest oilfield...


Saudi Arabia comes under particular scrutiny because of its importance. It has long held the mantle as the world's largest producer of oil, and has acted as a "swing producer," increasing and reducing oil extraction rates to balance to the worldwide market in concert with the other nations in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries

Not surprisingly, there was widespread concern -- even alarm -- over a 2005 report by a major bank which indicated that Ghawar had peaked. Analyst Don Coxe, working for the Bank of Montreal, became the first representative of a major financial institution to state unequivocally his belief that Ghawar was in irreversible decline. The Canadian bank analyst did not mince words: "The kingdom's decline rate will be among the world's fastest as this decade wanes... Most importantly, Hubbert's Peak must have arrived for Gharwar, the world's biggest oilfield."

Part of the "recoverable" oil equation concerns the methods used to increase an oil field's production. One of the most common ways of doing so is by injecting massive amounts of water, which has the effect of forcing deep-lying oil deposits to the surface where they can be harvested.

It is not a particularly good sign when a substantial amount of water is being used to "goose" production in a particular field. With consistent use of this technique, the volume of water that comes out along with the oil increases, while the amount of oil correspondingly decreases. Eventually, the yield contains mostly water, at which point the oil field is no longer worth operating.

Thus, it is indeed disquieting to note that the volume of water used to obtain Ghawar's oil has been steadily increasing. In fact, on a daily basis, an astounding 7 million barrels of seawater is being injected into the old oil reservoir to increase the oil flow. According to industry experts a few months ago Ghawar was producing 55 percent water -- in other words, more than half of the fluid brought to the surface was not oil.

In fact, a number of signs clearly indicate that Ghawar is in decline. Back in April 2006, a Saudi Aramco spokesman admitted that its mature fields are now declining at a rate of 8 percent per year. This, of course, implies that Ghawar may have peaked. The spokesman went on to say that measures were being taken to offset the decline, but that the only true solution to declining oil supplies is to locate new fields, and it is beyond debate that discoveries have not kept pace with growing global demand. Roughly 80 percent of oil being produced today is from fields discovered before 1973. Indeed, the discovery rate of multi-billion barrel fields has been declining since the 1940's; that of giant (500-million barrel) fields since the 1960's.

So, if Ghawar is confirmed to be in decline, it likely means that the entire world is as well. Of the four oil "super-giant" oil fields, three are officially in decline: Mexico's Cantarell, Russia's Samotlor, and Kuwait's Burgan. Though Ghawar has not "officially" been so declared, the implications of the facts noted above are clear.

The question of whether Ghawar's production is in permanent wane is of vital importance for the global industrial society, yet it has never been broached in a serious way by the mainstream media. To me, it is a very ominous development when such an issue can get shunted to the side, while useless celebrity gossip gets top the billing.

As Chip Haynes, the author of the first noted article, so eloquently puts it:
"So is the Ghawar dying? Does it matter? There may come a time when all the SUVs in Los Angeles will roll to a tank-dry halt. After the riots and the wars, after the yelling and screaming and dying, what's left of humanity (if we have any humanity left) will stand up, dust itself off and get on with Life. The Ghawar, virtually unknown today, will be all but forgotten by then. The troubles of Saudi Arabia and the Middle East will cease to be a common feature of the nightly news, as they would no longer have anything to offer the West -- nothing left to fight over. Just footnotes in a history book."

[briarberry] 17/2/2007 21:59

China, imagine if they imported as much oil as the USA...


Petroleum Intelligence weekly reports that Chinese crude imports rose 14.2% to 2.9 million barrels per day in 2006




BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it is raising its China oil demand projections for 2007 to 7.56 mln barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 0.21 mln bpd from its last estimate.