Empiric Student Property Share Discussion Threads

[briarberry] 17/2/2007 21:49

Iraq's oil...


The global energy information firm Platts reports Iraq's oil production in January dropped to an average 1.66 million barrels per day (bpd), from nearly 1.9 million in December.

Iraq has around 115 billion barrels of proven reserves, the third-highest in the world, and analysts say much more remain to be discovered.

Iraq has a capacity to produce nearly 3 million bpd but violence, a lack of electricity, and the poor condition of the infrastructure is blamed for keeping production numbers well below the 2.6 million bpd pumped before the war.

The northern oil pipeline from Kirkuk to Ceyhan, Turkey, is attacked enough to render it mostly inoperable. Most of the oil produced and exported is from fields in the south.

The January downturn is attributed to that violence, plus bad weather, and stoppage for repairs.

[briarberry] 17/2/2007 21:20

Peak oil, Kashagan Field...


Nearly all of the world's largest oilfields are in decline.

Only one supergiant (>5 billion barrels recoverable) field has been found since 1980. That field (Kashagan) is located on a geologic structure that was identified prior to 1980, but was not drilled until 2000 because of sea ice conditions. The prospects for finding any more are limited, and mostly in the Arctic offshore.





Production Start Date: January 2009

As production progresses through the phases, it will start off with 75,000 bopd and finally reach a peak production plateau of 1.2 million bopd sometime between 2015 and 2020.

oil gravity measured between 42 and 45 API degrees.

(It's good for petrol - Light oil has an API degree of more than 35, medium oil between 28 and 35, heavy oil less than 28)

[briarberry] 15/2/2007 23:17

SPX adding to short here - cash price is 1456

I've taken to closing half my short into dips as so many people go short it's always going to bounce, until it doesn't :)

(you can't go bankrupt taking a profit)


info for newbies only - technically in an uptrend, you should always lower short stops to entry on any decline, because if the market comes back up (in an uptrend), it's probably going higher. Although not sure why I'm saying this now as I think this uptrend is almost finished.

[briarberry] 15/2/2007 23:03

US property - where residential goes, commercial usually follows sooner or later...

[briarberry] 15/2/2007 23:01

US property boom - yeah summer 2005 turned out to be the top...





yes I must confess that when the property market peaked (in 2005) I expected the US economy to peak too, I didn't account for all the money (MEW) they were borrowing against the price increases of their homes. I didn't think that anyone could be so credit complacent as they became

[briarberry] 15/2/2007 22:51

Florida, finally seeing house prices fall (post 624), they're not in denial anymore. I guess this will spread across the country to some extent, sooner or later...


Florida Falls

Home prices fell 18 percent in the Sarasota, Bradenton and Venice, Florida, area to $301,300 from $367,400 a year earlier. The Palm Bay, Melbourne, Titusville, Florida area dropped 17 percent to $173,900 from $209,500. In the Cape Coral and Fort Myers, Florida market, prices slid 12 percent to $258,900 from $293,100 a year ago.

``The overall inventory levels are up substantially,'' Tony Polito, director of the Tampa-Sarasota market for housing- market research firm MetroStudy, said in an interview. ``The ones that are willing to negotiate price are the ones moving product.''

[briarberry] 15/2/2007 21:00

just heard this, from Ben Bankys speech yesterday, not checked it yet though...


Ben Banky said that if securities tanked (TNX up), the Fed would raise rates. Higher rates make securities (US debt) more attractive to foreign buyers.

[briarberry] 15/2/2007 15:59

Japan's 4th Q GDP (from post 711 above)

GDP data showed that Japan's economy in the October-December quarter expanded at an annualised pace of 4.8 percent, beating market expectations for growth of 3.8 percent.

[briarberry] 13/2/2007 22:42

US earnings, still got to watch the financials...

(down)
Companies in the consumer discretionary sector as tracked by Bloomberg have reported a 29 percent drop in earnings for the quarter, the worst showing of the 10 groups monitored.

Energy companies were the second-worst performers, with a 12 percent drop in earnings.

(up)
The materials group so far has posted a 51 percent increase in profit, the biggest gain among the 10 groups monitored, according to Bloomberg data.

Financial companies have recorded a 35 percent increase, the second-biggest gain. New York-based Goldman Sachs reported a 93 percent jump, while St. Paul Travelers Cos., the second- biggest U.S. commercial insurer, said profit was almost seven times higher than a year earlier.

[briarberry] 13/2/2007 19:48

The pace of pending foreclosures remained high in January with more than 103,000 foreclosure notices filed, adding to the nearly one million filings reported during 2006. According to data released today by ForeclosureS.com, nearly every region in the U.S. is facing the prospect of increasing foreclosures, but no region has been more impacted than the Southwest.

[briarberry] 12/2/2007 18:14

a must read for all carry trade bubble watchers...


Feb 8th 2007 - From The Economist print edition

Speculators and low interest rates have helped cheapen the yen, putting the world economy at risk

Last week the Japanese currency hit an all-time low against the euro and its real trade-weighted value fell to its lowest since at least 1970, according to an index tracked by JPMorgan.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) bowed to government pressure and held rates unchanged at 0.25% in January. But figures due on February 15th, which are expected to show that GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.5-4% in the three months to December, could give the bank the green light to raise rates at its next meeting.

The yen has been pushed down in recent months by the highly profitable "carry trade". At its simplest this involves borrowing in yen at very low interest rates to buy higher-yielding assets, such as American or Australian bonds, or even emerging-market debt that offers a still more lucrative interest margin. Carry trades weaken the Japanese currency, because investors sell the borrowed yen to convert them into other currencies.

Carry trades make sense only if the investor assumes that the yen will remain weak. If it appreciated, this would increase the repayment cost of yen-borrowing and offset the interest differential.

[briarberry] 12/2/2007 15:57

Analysts forecast a rise of about 5 per cent in earnings of S&P 500 companies in the first quarter of 2007, down from more than 7 per cent two months ago, according to Thomson Financial. "We are going through a big transition in mindset," said Mike Thompson, director of research at Thomson Financial. "We are finally seeing a slowdown in earnings."

[briarberry] 11/2/2007 20:15

"Florida budget writers were handed grim news Friday, with a new report showing state tax collections falling far short of expectations...."

"For the past three months, general revenue collections are nearly $160 million below projections. Amy Baker, the coordinator for the Office of Economic and Demographic Research, attributed the drop in sales taxes to a 'spillover effect' from a slumping housing market."


(They'll have to either cut spending or raise taxes. Either option is not good for the Florida economy. We should start seeing the same scenario popping up in other parts of the country, over the next year or two).



Florida "In the 18 years Roz Fenton's worked at the Pasco Clerk of Courts Office, she's never seen this. 'At least 60 foreclosure sales a week,' she said. The files and files just seem to keep growing. 'We've had more overtime in the office. We've had to pull in additional sources to help with the overload in the area,' she explained."

[briarberry] 10/2/2007 18:40

This is funny because I remember Greenie recommending ARM mortgages, so where's the, sorry we were wrong ?


Fraud and sloppy lending practices are likely to be at the heart of recent news of rising defaults in the sub-prime mortgage lending sector,' said William Poole, the president of the St. Louis Fed, on Friday.

.

"Only three years ago, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said homeowners could have saved a heck of a lot of money had they opted for adjustable-rate mortgages during the past decade."

"'American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed- rate mortgage,' Greenspan said in a speech to the Credit Union National Association in Washington."

"Lenders took his advice. Borrowers jumped at the opportunity. Everyone may suffer the consequences."

.

Fed's Bies Resigns After Five Years at Central Bank (jump before pushed ?)

Bies on Jan. 11 urged U.S. banks to strengthen mortgage underwriting standards to ensure borrowers relying on non- traditional loans are shielded against default if the housing market declines.

Another part of Bies's duties was the Fed's efforts to implement the so-called Basel II accord, which aims to make banks' capital requirements more sensitive to the risks. Large U.S. banks have been at odds with regulators for months over whether their overseas rivals face less stringent standards.

[briarberry] 09/2/2007 21:50

Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Shares of MasterCard Inc., the second- biggest credit-card company, fell the most since last May's public offering after the company said it won't repeat a fee increase that contributed to a $40.9 million profit last quarter.

[briarberry] 09/2/2007 21:40

U.K., France Trade Deficits Widened to Record in 2006

The U.K.'s annual gap reached 84.3 billion pounds ($164.3 billion), the Office for National Statistics said today in London.

By contrast Germany, Europe's biggest economy, reported a record trade surplus of 161.9 billion euros for 2006

[briarberry] 08/2/2007 22:07

Toll's preliminary [first-quarter] results

"Toll Brothers Inc. said it may post quarterly writedowns as high as $160 million or more, which would handily top its previous estimate for all of 2007. Net of cancellations, first-quarter contracts fell 33% to 1,027 units from 1,544 units in the first quarter of fiscal 2006. The cancellation rate was 29.8% in the first quarter."

"'Toll's preliminary [first-quarter] results show a continuation of the weak demand that has plagued the builders in recent quarters,' wrote Nishu Sood at Deutsche Bank. 'Management's recent optimism is notably absent following [first-quarter] results that showed continued order declines, elevated cancellation rates and the likelihood of additional significant write-downs,' he added."

Toll's expected to release full first-quarter results on Feb. 22

[briarberry] 08/2/2007 18:16

NEW down 30%

New Century Financial Corporation (NYSE: NEW), a real estate investment trust (REIT), announced a major earnings restatement, including a "surprising" loss in the most recent quarter



New is the third-largest U.S. subprime mortgage lender

[briarberry] 08/2/2007 11:23

HSBC warning hits banks (biggest bank in Europe)
By Michael Hunter

Published: February 8 2007 09:08 | Last updated: February 8 2007 09:22

London equities fell in opening trade on Thursday as the banking sector was hit by HSBC's surprise warning of increased debt provision within its US operations (extra $2 billion).

The FTSE 100 fell 0.1 per cent to 6,364.4, a decline of 5 points, with HSBC opening 2 per cent lower at 914p.

The purchase of Household in 2003 has left HSBC vulnerable to the slowing housing market in the US, leading it to warn on Thurday of an increase in debt provision within its mortgage operations there.

Several of its peers also lost ground on the day the Bank of England will reveal its latest call on interest rates. January's unexpected rise caught investors off guard with the banking sector already subject to increased impairment charges for bad debts in the UK. Lloyds TSB fell 0.6 per cent to 595p, Northern Rock lost 0.7 per cent to £12.31 and Royal Bank of Scotland fell 0.1 per cent to £20.73.





HSBC is the second-largest U.S. subprime mortgage lender

[briarberry] 07/2/2007 21:41

"D.R. Horton Inc., the largest U.S. home builder, on Monday said net sales orders in January continued to fall compared with a year ago, but its cancellation rate for the month was about the same as that seen in the most recent quarter."

D.R. Horton Inc., Pulte Homes Inc., Lennar Corp., Centex Corp. and Toll Brothers Inc., the five biggest U.S. homebuilders, said plummeting land prices cost them a combined $1.47 billion in the fourth quarter."

[briarberry] 07/2/2007 16:33

Florida property market crash...


"These days, the speculators are looking foolish. In Florida, where they helped inflate land values as much as 10-fold from 2000 to 2005, prices have dropped by as much as 50 percent."

"'The land market has dried up,' said analyst Alex Barron. 'Most builders are on the sidelines because they expect prices to go down another 30 percent.'"

"Jack McCabe, a real estate consultant in Deerfield Beach, Florida, said land prices in his region will keep falling. He said investors are waiting for prices to hit bottom, probably in the second half of this year. 'It's going to be pretty ugly,' McCabe said. 'Lots of people will lose money and a lot of paper wealth will be going away.'"

[briarberry] 06/2/2007 22:41

recession watch (short covering boosts stock - last paragraph)...

From Business Week. "FirstFed Financial Corp. may be the riskiest mortgage lender around. In the fourth quarter, mortgage originations plummeted by 66.8%, to $365 million-one of the steepest declines among all lenders."

"Cash from operating activities dropped into the red in the third quarter (the most recent data available), falling from $49 million in 2005 to negative $77.1 million a year later. Meanwhile, the number of problem loans more than quadrupled last year."

"The biggest problem: Its mortgage portfolio is packed with risky loans known as option ARMS. All of FirstFed's mortgages are for homes in California, where prices have cratered and foreclosures have skyrocketed. Also, 80% of its loans have little or no documentation to prove the borrower's income or assets, according to a recent company presentation."

"The bulk of FirstFed's income is derived from noncash earnings, largely from the deferred principal on its option ARMs. That so-called negative amortization constituted $223.9 million, or 68.4%, of the bank's income before taxes in 2006, compared with 1.3% in 2004. In essence, FirstFed is booking profits on money it hasn't collected."

Still, given all the red flags, it's no wonder short-sellers have pounced. Some 40% of the company's 15.3 million shares have been sold short. That dynamic may have helped boost the stock. As it climbs, hedge funds and others rush to buy more shares to cover their money-losing short position, pushing the stock higher.

[briarberry] 05/2/2007 21:58

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- More U.S. banks tightened lending standards for home loans in the past three months than in any quarter since the early 1990s, according to a Federal Reserve survey.

Ten of 55 banks surveyed said that credit standards for home mortgages had ``tightened somewhat,'' while one said standards had eased. The rest of the banks in the survey reported that standards were ``basically unchanged.''

[briarberry] 05/2/2007 21:30

Oil, they can't claim they aren't using any energy now...

last night - Chicago Lo -21°C


WASHINGTON (AFX) - The operator of the power grid for the mid-Atlantic and
parts of the Midwest said Monday it reached an all-time record for winter
electricity use amid frigid weather on the East Coast.
Valley Forge, Pa.-based PJM Interconnection, which operates the power grid
in 13 states and Washington, D.C., said it set an all-time record for winter
electricity use on Monday morning, with demand rising above 112,500 megawatts.
The previous record for winter use, set in December 2005, was 110,414 megawatts.
The all time record for summer use on the PJM grid, 144,644 megawatts, was
set during a heat wave last August.